Pub Date : 2026-02-14DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01348-1
L. S. Basso, C. Rödenbeck, V. Brovkin, G. Georgievski, M. Heimann, M. Göckede
The Arctic-Boreal region is vulnerable to rapid climate change. Thawing of the permafrost and extended warm periods are expected to turn the region into a hotspot of enhanced CH4 emissions. We estimated CH4 fluxes by assimilating atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio data from a regional network into a global atmospheric inverse model, resulting in a mean uncertainty reduction of ~68% across the domain and improved agreement with observations. From 2010 to 2021, the Arctic-Boreal region emitted 45.4 ± 0.7 TgCH4 y−1 ( ~ 7% of global emissions), with no significant overall trend. However, on the regional scale a positive trend emerged in the Western Siberia Lowlands. Arctic-Boreal wetland emissions increased during warmer years, suggesting possible future increases as warming continues. Emissions varied regionally, with western Russia showing higher fluxes. Changes in winter hydroclimate significantly influenced emissions in the Western Siberian Lowlands, likely by enhancing the availability of soil moisture through snowmelt in spring. Our findings emphasize the importance of accounting for both temperature effects and changes in wetness, when assessing Arctic CH4 future emissions.
{"title":"Quantifying Arctic-boreal methane emissions using atmospheric observations and a global inverse model","authors":"L. S. Basso, C. Rödenbeck, V. Brovkin, G. Georgievski, M. Heimann, M. Göckede","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01348-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01348-1","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic-Boreal region is vulnerable to rapid climate change. Thawing of the permafrost and extended warm periods are expected to turn the region into a hotspot of enhanced CH4 emissions. We estimated CH4 fluxes by assimilating atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio data from a regional network into a global atmospheric inverse model, resulting in a mean uncertainty reduction of ~68% across the domain and improved agreement with observations. From 2010 to 2021, the Arctic-Boreal region emitted 45.4 ± 0.7 TgCH4 y−1 ( ~ 7% of global emissions), with no significant overall trend. However, on the regional scale a positive trend emerged in the Western Siberia Lowlands. Arctic-Boreal wetland emissions increased during warmer years, suggesting possible future increases as warming continues. Emissions varied regionally, with western Russia showing higher fluxes. Changes in winter hydroclimate significantly influenced emissions in the Western Siberian Lowlands, likely by enhancing the availability of soil moisture through snowmelt in spring. Our findings emphasize the importance of accounting for both temperature effects and changes in wetness, when assessing Arctic CH4 future emissions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146196781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fast atmospheric particulate nitrate and sulfate formation under high-humidity conditions has been extensively observed; however, the underlying chemical mechanisms and their relative contributions remain poorly understood. This study examined the characteristic high-humidity events (HHEs) in southern China during spring, providing field observation evidence for the crucial role of NO2-driven multiphase reactions in particulate nitrate and sulfate formation. Our findings revealed efficient nitrate formation during early HHEs, likely facilitated by enhanced NO2 uptake via disproportionation reaction. As humidity increased and fog formed, S(IV) oxidation competitively consumed NO2 and N(III), causing rapid sulfate formation. The resulting N(III), produced from the oxidation of S(IV) by NO2 (aq), further oxidizes S(IV) effectively in droplets due to its slow liquid-gas mass transfer rate. A state-of-the-art multiphase box model demonstrated that NO2 uptake and SO2 oxidation by NO2/N(III) represent dominant formation pathways during HHEs, accounting for 45.4% and 63.6% of the total nitrate and sulfate production, respectively. These results highlight the critical importance of NO2-driven multiphase chemistry in particulate pollution under high-humidity environments.
{"title":"Enhanced NO2-driven multiphase formation of particulate nitrate and sulfate under high-humidity conditions","authors":"Ziyi Lin, Xiaoting Ji, Lingling Xu, Gaojie Chen, Chen Yang, Keran Zhang, Feng Zhang, Lingjun Li, Yuping Chen, Jinsheng Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01352-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01352-5","url":null,"abstract":"Fast atmospheric particulate nitrate and sulfate formation under high-humidity conditions has been extensively observed; however, the underlying chemical mechanisms and their relative contributions remain poorly understood. This study examined the characteristic high-humidity events (HHEs) in southern China during spring, providing field observation evidence for the crucial role of NO2-driven multiphase reactions in particulate nitrate and sulfate formation. Our findings revealed efficient nitrate formation during early HHEs, likely facilitated by enhanced NO2 uptake via disproportionation reaction. As humidity increased and fog formed, S(IV) oxidation competitively consumed NO2 and N(III), causing rapid sulfate formation. The resulting N(III), produced from the oxidation of S(IV) by NO2 (aq), further oxidizes S(IV) effectively in droplets due to its slow liquid-gas mass transfer rate. A state-of-the-art multiphase box model demonstrated that NO2 uptake and SO2 oxidation by NO2/N(III) represent dominant formation pathways during HHEs, accounting for 45.4% and 63.6% of the total nitrate and sulfate production, respectively. These results highlight the critical importance of NO2-driven multiphase chemistry in particulate pollution under high-humidity environments.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146196782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) and marine heatwaves (MHWs) are two major extreme events of the climate system that strongly influence the ocean–atmosphere interface, yet their mutual interactions remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis datasets (OISST and ERA5) from 1982 to 2023 to quantify the interactions and feedbacks between ARs and MHWs over the North Pacific. Longer and more intense events exhibit a higher probability of overlapping, resulting in nearly 85% of ARs and 57% of MHWs being linked to the other system. Pronounced hotspots of co-occurrence emerge in the mid-latitudes, where both systems frequently develop. ARs promote ocean surface warming and exacerbate MHW intensity by enhancing surface heat fluxes dominated by latent heat, together with increased downward longwave and sensible heat fluxes over the North Pacific north of 40° N. Conversely, MHWs slightly suppress local AR intensity by weakening horizontal winds, while mesoscale convection and cyclonic disturbances disrupt integrated vapor transport. This effect is partially offset by enhanced moisture associated with stronger convection. These findings reveal a bidirectional coupling between oceanic and atmospheric extremes and highlight the need to examine their relationship across other ocean basins and under future warming scenarios to better anticipate compound climate risks.
{"title":"Interaction between atmospheric rivers and marine heatwaves in the North Pacific","authors":"Lujia Zhang, Yurong Song, Wen Huang, Mengqian Lu, Tianyun Dong, Xichen Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01350-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01350-7","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric rivers (ARs) and marine heatwaves (MHWs) are two major extreme events of the climate system that strongly influence the ocean–atmosphere interface, yet their mutual interactions remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis datasets (OISST and ERA5) from 1982 to 2023 to quantify the interactions and feedbacks between ARs and MHWs over the North Pacific. Longer and more intense events exhibit a higher probability of overlapping, resulting in nearly 85% of ARs and 57% of MHWs being linked to the other system. Pronounced hotspots of co-occurrence emerge in the mid-latitudes, where both systems frequently develop. ARs promote ocean surface warming and exacerbate MHW intensity by enhancing surface heat fluxes dominated by latent heat, together with increased downward longwave and sensible heat fluxes over the North Pacific north of 40° N. Conversely, MHWs slightly suppress local AR intensity by weakening horizontal winds, while mesoscale convection and cyclonic disturbances disrupt integrated vapor transport. This effect is partially offset by enhanced moisture associated with stronger convection. These findings reveal a bidirectional coupling between oceanic and atmospheric extremes and highlight the need to examine their relationship across other ocean basins and under future warming scenarios to better anticipate compound climate risks.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"428 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146196783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01344-5
J. A. Fernández-Granja, Joaquín Bedia, Ana Casanueva, Swen Brands, Jesús Fernández
This study examines how large-scale near-surface circulation is projected to evolve under anthropogenic forcing throughout the 21st century. Using a multi-model ensemble of 41 state-of-the-art Global Climate Models high emissions scenarios, we analyze changes in Weather Type (WT) frequencies, based on Sea-Level Pressure (SLP), as a function of global warming and estimate their Time of Emergence (ToE) from historical variability. Significant and robust trends are identified across key climatic regions, including shifts in anticyclonic types in subtropical high-pressure belts and the Mediterranean, westerly and cyclonic types in the Subantarctic, and unclassified types in the Mediterranean. While most robust signals emerge by the late 21st century, some changes in the Mediterranean are already emerging in the present decade. Overall, results reveal significant circulation changes in the coming decades, affecting dominant near-surface circulation modes globally. A comprehensive dataset of 6-hourly WT projections (2006/15-2100) over mid-latitudes is publicly available as part of this study.
{"title":"Emerging near-surface extratropical circulation changes due to climate change: a weather typing based global analysis","authors":"J. A. Fernández-Granja, Joaquín Bedia, Ana Casanueva, Swen Brands, Jesús Fernández","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01344-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01344-5","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how large-scale near-surface circulation is projected to evolve under anthropogenic forcing throughout the 21st century. Using a multi-model ensemble of 41 state-of-the-art Global Climate Models high emissions scenarios, we analyze changes in Weather Type (WT) frequencies, based on Sea-Level Pressure (SLP), as a function of global warming and estimate their Time of Emergence (ToE) from historical variability. Significant and robust trends are identified across key climatic regions, including shifts in anticyclonic types in subtropical high-pressure belts and the Mediterranean, westerly and cyclonic types in the Subantarctic, and unclassified types in the Mediterranean. While most robust signals emerge by the late 21st century, some changes in the Mediterranean are already emerging in the present decade. Overall, results reveal significant circulation changes in the coming decades, affecting dominant near-surface circulation modes globally. A comprehensive dataset of 6-hourly WT projections (2006/15-2100) over mid-latitudes is publicly available as part of this study.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146152328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rapid surges in vegetation growth—defined by thresholds in growth rate and duration—are critical yet understudied indicators of ecosystem responses to environmental change. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of such abrupt, short-lived flash flourishing events across the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) from 2003 to 2022. We find more frequent occurrence of flash flourishing events at high latitudes (≥45° N), where their incidence is 1.6 times higher than at mid-latitudes. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency in frequency, duration, and intensity of flash flourishing events over the past two decades, alongside consistent rises in vegetation indices across onset, post-onset, and entire phases. Model simulations attribute these multiyear increases primarily to elevated atmospheric CO2, while temperature and radiation predominantly control phase-specific variability, with onset traits strongly predicting subsequent phenological responses. Together, these findings identify the patterns and drivers of NEL flash flourishing and highlight their large-scale impacts on ecosystem dynamics, offering critical insights for model improvement and the assessment of ecological shifts.
{"title":"Flash flourishing of Northern Hemisphere vegetation and its drivers","authors":"Xiangxu Kong, Jiafu Mao, Haishan Chen, Zhenzhong Zeng, Yuefeng Hao, Yaoping Wang, Yao Zhang, Anping Chen, Mingzhou Jin, Xiaoying Shi, Forrest M. Hoffman","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01346-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01346-3","url":null,"abstract":"Rapid surges in vegetation growth—defined by thresholds in growth rate and duration—are critical yet understudied indicators of ecosystem responses to environmental change. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of such abrupt, short-lived flash flourishing events across the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) from 2003 to 2022. We find more frequent occurrence of flash flourishing events at high latitudes (≥45° N), where their incidence is 1.6 times higher than at mid-latitudes. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency in frequency, duration, and intensity of flash flourishing events over the past two decades, alongside consistent rises in vegetation indices across onset, post-onset, and entire phases. Model simulations attribute these multiyear increases primarily to elevated atmospheric CO2, while temperature and radiation predominantly control phase-specific variability, with onset traits strongly predicting subsequent phenological responses. Together, these findings identify the patterns and drivers of NEL flash flourishing and highlight their large-scale impacts on ecosystem dynamics, offering critical insights for model improvement and the assessment of ecological shifts.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146152329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-10DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01342-7
Hannah C. Frostenberg, Montserrat Costa-Surós, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Ulrike Proske, Georgia Sotiropoulou, Eleanor May, David Neubauer, Patrick Eriksson, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Athanasios Nenes, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Øyvind Seland, Luisa Ickes
The balance between liquid and ice in clouds remains a major challenge in climate modeling, largely due to uncertainties in ice-related processes. We investigate the relative importance of four microphysical processes—primary ice nucleation (PIN), secondary ice production (SIP), sedimentation, and transport of ice crystals—for the supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) in mixed-phase clouds using three global climate models: EC-Earth3-AerChem, NorESM2-MM, and ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3. All models identify PIN as the dominant influence on SLF at cold temperatures in high northern latitudes, but diverge elsewhere and for higher temperatures. Implementing a unified SIP parameterization produced varied model responses, revealing fundamental differences in how microphysical processes interact within each model framework. These discrepancies suggest that each model prioritizes different processes in shaping the cloud phase. Such divergence may limit the reliability of conclusions regarding microphysical processes drawn from any single model.
{"title":"Large discrepancies in dominant microphysical processes governing mixed-phase clouds across climate models","authors":"Hannah C. Frostenberg, Montserrat Costa-Surós, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Ulrike Proske, Georgia Sotiropoulou, Eleanor May, David Neubauer, Patrick Eriksson, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Athanasios Nenes, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Øyvind Seland, Luisa Ickes","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01342-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01342-7","url":null,"abstract":"The balance between liquid and ice in clouds remains a major challenge in climate modeling, largely due to uncertainties in ice-related processes. We investigate the relative importance of four microphysical processes—primary ice nucleation (PIN), secondary ice production (SIP), sedimentation, and transport of ice crystals—for the supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) in mixed-phase clouds using three global climate models: EC-Earth3-AerChem, NorESM2-MM, and ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3. All models identify PIN as the dominant influence on SLF at cold temperatures in high northern latitudes, but diverge elsewhere and for higher temperatures. Implementing a unified SIP parameterization produced varied model responses, revealing fundamental differences in how microphysical processes interact within each model framework. These discrepancies suggest that each model prioritizes different processes in shaping the cloud phase. Such divergence may limit the reliability of conclusions regarding microphysical processes drawn from any single model.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146152335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-09DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01324-9
Lucas J. Oh, Sebastian D. Eastham, Steven R. H. Barrett
The environmental impact of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions varies with emission altitude and latitude. NOx emissions from subsonic aviation (9-12 km) contribute to net global ozone formation, whereas those from supersonic aircraft (above 14 km) lead to net global ozone depletion. However, the effects of NOx emission altitude on surface air quality remain understudied. We evaluate how NOx emissions at different altitudes (8–22 km) and latitudes influence near-surface concentrations of two known air pollutants: ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem, we find that NOx emissions of 1 Tg N yr−1 at 8–10 km (30–60°N) increase surface ozone (population-weighted) by 0.52 ppb and surface PM2.5 by 35 ng m−3, whereas emissions at 20–22 km reduce surface ozone by 1.73 ppb and increase surface PM2.5 by 310 ng m−3; this is nine times the PM2.5 increase per unit NOx from lower-altitude emissions. These effects stem from altitude-dependent mechanisms: at lower altitudes typical of subsonic aviation, NOx emissions increase upper tropospheric ozone which leads to enhanced surface ozone and nitrate aerosol. However, when emitted at higher altitudes NOx instead depletes ozone, permitting more ultraviolet light to reach the troposphere which boosts OH production and accelerates production of sulfate aerosol while destroying near-surface ozone. Our findings suggest that NOx emissions from high-altitude sources, including supersonic aircraft may not only contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion but also cause larger changes (albeit of mixed sign) in surface air quality than subsonic aviation per unit of NOx emitted.
氮氧化物（NOx）排放对环境的影响随排放高度和纬度的不同而不同。亚音速航空（9-12公里）的氮氧化物排放有助于全球臭氧净形成，而超音速飞机（14公里以上）的氮氧化物排放导致全球臭氧净消耗。然而，氮氧化物排放高度对地表空气质量的影响仍未得到充分研究。我们评估了不同海拔（8-22公里）和纬度的氮氧化物排放如何影响两种已知空气污染物的近地表浓度：臭氧和细颗粒物（PM2.5）。利用全球化学运输模型GEOS-Chem，我们发现在8-10 km（30-60°N）处1 Tg N yr - 1的NOx排放使地表臭氧（人口加权）增加0.52 ppb，使地表PM2.5增加35 ng m - 3，而在20-22 km处排放使地表臭氧减少1.73 ppb，使地表PM2.5增加310 ng m - 3；这是低海拔排放单位氮氧化物PM2.5增加量的9倍。这些影响源于高度依赖机制：在典型的亚音速航空低海拔地区，氮氧化物排放增加对流层上层臭氧，从而导致地表臭氧和硝酸盐气溶胶增强。然而，当氮氧化物在高海拔地区排放时，反而会消耗臭氧，使更多的紫外线到达对流层，从而促进OH的产生，加速硫酸盐气溶胶的产生，同时破坏近地表臭氧。我们的研究结果表明，包括超音速飞机在内的高空来源排放的氮氧化物不仅可能导致平流层臭氧消耗，而且比亚音速航空单位排放的氮氧化物造成的地表空气质量变化（尽管是混合迹象）更大。
{"title":"Mechanisms driving altitude- and latitude-dependent air quality variations from high-altitude NOx emissions","authors":"Lucas J. Oh, Sebastian D. Eastham, Steven R. H. Barrett","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01324-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01324-9","url":null,"abstract":"The environmental impact of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions varies with emission altitude and latitude. NOx emissions from subsonic aviation (9-12 km) contribute to net global ozone formation, whereas those from supersonic aircraft (above 14 km) lead to net global ozone depletion. However, the effects of NOx emission altitude on surface air quality remain understudied. We evaluate how NOx emissions at different altitudes (8–22 km) and latitudes influence near-surface concentrations of two known air pollutants: ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem, we find that NOx emissions of 1 Tg N yr−1 at 8–10 km (30–60°N) increase surface ozone (population-weighted) by 0.52 ppb and surface PM2.5 by 35 ng m−3, whereas emissions at 20–22 km reduce surface ozone by 1.73 ppb and increase surface PM2.5 by 310 ng m−3; this is nine times the PM2.5 increase per unit NOx from lower-altitude emissions. These effects stem from altitude-dependent mechanisms: at lower altitudes typical of subsonic aviation, NOx emissions increase upper tropospheric ozone which leads to enhanced surface ozone and nitrate aerosol. However, when emitted at higher altitudes NOx instead depletes ozone, permitting more ultraviolet light to reach the troposphere which boosts OH production and accelerates production of sulfate aerosol while destroying near-surface ozone. Our findings suggest that NOx emissions from high-altitude sources, including supersonic aircraft may not only contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion but also cause larger changes (albeit of mixed sign) in surface air quality than subsonic aviation per unit of NOx emitted.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"315 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146152336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01294-4
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Dim Coumou
Soil moisture strongly modulates heat waves and droughts by altering land-atmosphere feedbacks, yet its influence on large-scale circulation remains inadequately quantified. Using large-ensemble simulations with the state-of-the-art climate model EC-Earth 3, we demonstrate that interactive soil moisture has a substantial impact on Northern Hemisphere summer circulation climatology. Two experiments were conducted: a fully interactive simulation and one with prescribed soil moisture states. The results reveal pronounced circulation shifts. Relative to the prescribed case, the interactive experiment drives a poleward displacement of the subtropical jets. It strengthens the polar front jet and enhances land-atmosphere coupling, amplifying wave amplitudes over land by ~24%. Interactive soil moisture raises mean summer surface temperatures by up to +1.5 K and extremes by +3.0 K. These findings demonstrate that soil moisture fluctuations can modify mean atmospheric circulation, with important implications for future summer climate projections.
{"title":"The role of soil moisture on summer atmospheric circulation climatology in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Dim Coumou","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01294-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01294-4","url":null,"abstract":"Soil moisture strongly modulates heat waves and droughts by altering land-atmosphere feedbacks, yet its influence on large-scale circulation remains inadequately quantified. Using large-ensemble simulations with the state-of-the-art climate model EC-Earth 3, we demonstrate that interactive soil moisture has a substantial impact on Northern Hemisphere summer circulation climatology. Two experiments were conducted: a fully interactive simulation and one with prescribed soil moisture states. The results reveal pronounced circulation shifts. Relative to the prescribed case, the interactive experiment drives a poleward displacement of the subtropical jets. It strengthens the polar front jet and enhances land-atmosphere coupling, amplifying wave amplitudes over land by ~24%. Interactive soil moisture raises mean summer surface temperatures by up to +1.5 K and extremes by +3.0 K. These findings demonstrate that soil moisture fluctuations can modify mean atmospheric circulation, with important implications for future summer climate projections.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"240 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01341-8
Ruotong Xiao, Liang Wu, Zhiqiang Gong, Zhiping Wen, Tao Feng, Xi Cao, Shangfeng Chen
{"title":"The relationship between the origin of tropical cyclones and their maximum attained intensity","authors":"Ruotong Xiao, Liang Wu, Zhiqiang Gong, Zhiping Wen, Tao Feng, Xi Cao, Shangfeng Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01341-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01341-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146115636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01347-2
Yanqin Li, Bolan Gan, Ruichen Zhu, Xianyao Chen, Yingzhe Cui, Hong Wang, Lixin Wu
{"title":"Significance of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies to Arctic sea ice variability revealed by deep learning","authors":"Yanqin Li, Bolan Gan, Ruichen Zhu, Xianyao Chen, Yingzhe Cui, Hong Wang, Lixin Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01347-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01347-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"89 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146115993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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