Pub Date : 2025-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01292-6
Hsing-Hung Chou, Tiffany A. Shaw, Gan Zhang
Trends in atmospheric circulation have begun to emerge in recent decades. Summertime mean circulation trends aloft have been attributed to human influence. For low-level extreme winds, the extent of human influence and climate model fidelity remains unclear. Here, we compare satellite-era trends in extratropical low-level mean and extreme (>90th percentile) winds defined using daily distribution in reanalyses and climate model simulations. In summer, Southern Hemisphere midlatitude winds have strengthened, driven by greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone forcings. The summertime European wind stilling trend is dominated by aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings. In winter, models cannot capture the strengthening over the Southern Hemisphere and the weakening over Europe and the subtropical North Pacific. These discrepancies, particularly in the Pacific, are reduced but persist when observed sea surface temperatures are prescribed and affect the low-level baroclinicity. Our results highlight human influence on summertime low-level extreme wind trends and reveal regional wintertime discrepancies.
{"title":"Human influence on recent trends in extratropical low-level wind speed","authors":"Hsing-Hung Chou, Tiffany A. Shaw, Gan Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01292-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01292-6","url":null,"abstract":"Trends in atmospheric circulation have begun to emerge in recent decades. Summertime mean circulation trends aloft have been attributed to human influence. For low-level extreme winds, the extent of human influence and climate model fidelity remains unclear. Here, we compare satellite-era trends in extratropical low-level mean and extreme (>90th percentile) winds defined using daily distribution in reanalyses and climate model simulations. In summer, Southern Hemisphere midlatitude winds have strengthened, driven by greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone forcings. The summertime European wind stilling trend is dominated by aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings. In winter, models cannot capture the strengthening over the Southern Hemisphere and the weakening over Europe and the subtropical North Pacific. These discrepancies, particularly in the Pacific, are reduced but persist when observed sea surface temperatures are prescribed and affect the low-level baroclinicity. Our results highlight human influence on summertime low-level extreme wind trends and reveal regional wintertime discrepancies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145796457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dust aerosols constitute a major component of shortwave-absorbing aerosols, with absorption uncertainties predominantly associated with mineral composition variations. To address this, we analyzed 22 East Asian dust (EAD) samples and derived a revised imaginary part of the complex refractive index ((k)), with a range spanning from (2.26times {10}^{-4})–(8.37times {10}^{-4}) in 0.3–1 μm, which is significantly lower than the Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) and the values commonly used in research on East Asian. The improved optical parameters applied to CAS-ESM2 for spring dust simulations have been shown to reduce single scattering albedo (SSA) bias from 15% to 2% and absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) overestimation from +5.2% to −1.7%. The modified scheme reduces atmospheric absorption by 79.5% (−7.61 W/m2) and reverses the top of atmospheric shortwave radiation effect to −3.80 W/m2. This outcome revealed that dust absorption in East Asia is weak and the climate impact is significantly different from previous assessments.
粉尘气溶胶是短波吸收气溶胶的主要组成部分，其吸收不确定性主要与矿物成分变化有关。为了解决这个问题，我们分析了22个东亚粉尘（EAD）样品，并得到了一个修正的复折射率虚部（(k)），其范围为(2.26times {10}^{-4}) - (8.37times {10}^{-4})，范围为0.3-1 μm，明显低于气溶胶和云的光学性质（OPAC）和东亚研究中常用的值。改进后的光学参数应用于CAS-ESM2的春季尘埃模拟，表明单散射反照率（SSA）偏差从15减小% to 2% and absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) overestimation from +5.2% to −1.7%. The modified scheme reduces atmospheric absorption by 79.5% (−7.61 W/m2) and reverses the top of atmospheric shortwave radiation effect to −3.80 W/m2. This outcome revealed that dust absorption in East Asia is weak and the climate impact is significantly different from previous assessments.
{"title":"Weaker absorption of Asian dust than previously estimated based on observation-constrained simulation","authors":"Youjia Yuan, Hao Wang, Chenglai Wu, Tafeng Hu, Feng Wu, Daizhou Zhang, Junji Cao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01290-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01290-8","url":null,"abstract":"Dust aerosols constitute a major component of shortwave-absorbing aerosols, with absorption uncertainties predominantly associated with mineral composition variations. To address this, we analyzed 22 East Asian dust (EAD) samples and derived a revised imaginary part of the complex refractive index ((k)), with a range spanning from (2.26times {10}^{-4})–(8.37times {10}^{-4}) in 0.3–1 μm, which is significantly lower than the Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) and the values commonly used in research on East Asian. The improved optical parameters applied to CAS-ESM2 for spring dust simulations have been shown to reduce single scattering albedo (SSA) bias from 15% to 2% and absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) overestimation from +5.2% to −1.7%. The modified scheme reduces atmospheric absorption by 79.5% (−7.61 W/m2) and reverses the top of atmospheric shortwave radiation effect to −3.80 W/m2. This outcome revealed that dust absorption in East Asia is weak and the climate impact is significantly different from previous assessments.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145771617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Amplified summer extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in the early 21st century","authors":"XiaoJing Jia, Fangchi Liu, Wei Dong, Xinhai Chen, Qifeng Qian","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01270-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01270-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145771190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01288-2
Eija Asmi, Timothy A. Sipkens, Jorge Saturno, John Backman, Konstantina Vasilatou, Ernest Weingartner, Alejandro Keller, Krzysztof Ciupek, Thomas Müller, Arun Babu Suja, Griša Močnik, Luka Drinovec, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Maria I. Gini, Andreas Nowak, Joel C. Corbin
An accurate assessment of black carbon (BC) climate and health impacts requires knowledge of its mass absorption cross-section (MACBC) – a parameter linking optical and mass measurements. The mean MACBC for freshly emitted soot typically spans a narrow range of 8 ± 1 m2 g⁻1 at 550 nm1,2 but is modified by subsequent atmospheric aging. Determination of MACBC requires simultaneous measurements of aerosol light-absorption coefficient (βabs) and BC mass. Here, we compile 230 measured MACBC values from 80 atmospheric studies and explore the effects of sampling location, study duration, instrumentation, and measurement wavelength. The compiled data set shows a broad variability in MACBC values (a factor of about 200%). We conclude that this variability is attributable to a combination of the above-mentioned effects with additional instrumental uncertainties (e.g., cross-sensitivities and/or inadequate instrument calibration). The current state of knowledge does not support the use of simplistic generalizations or assumptions about MACBC in the atmosphere, motivating a recommendation to further improve and standardize measurement practices.
准确评估黑碳对气候和健康的影响需要了解其质量吸收横截面（MACBC），这是一个将光学和质量测量联系起来的参数。新排放的煤烟的平均MACBC通常在8±1 m2 g - 1 （550 nm1,2）的狭窄范围内，但随后的大气老化会改变。测定MACBC需要同时测量气溶胶光吸收系数（βabs）和BC质量。在这里，我们收集了来自80个大气研究的230个测量的MACBC值，并探讨了采样位置、研究持续时间、仪器和测量波长的影响。编译后的数据集显示，MACBC值有很大的可变性（约为200%）。我们得出结论，这种可变性可归因于上述影响与其他仪器不确定性（例如，交叉灵敏度和/或仪器校准不足）的结合。目前的知识状况不支持对大气中MACBC进行简单的概括或假设，这促使人们建议进一步改进和标准化测量实践。
{"title":"Mass absorption cross-section of ambient black carbon aerosols - a review","authors":"Eija Asmi, Timothy A. Sipkens, Jorge Saturno, John Backman, Konstantina Vasilatou, Ernest Weingartner, Alejandro Keller, Krzysztof Ciupek, Thomas Müller, Arun Babu Suja, Griša Močnik, Luka Drinovec, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Maria I. Gini, Andreas Nowak, Joel C. Corbin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01288-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01288-2","url":null,"abstract":"An accurate assessment of black carbon (BC) climate and health impacts requires knowledge of its mass absorption cross-section (MACBC) – a parameter linking optical and mass measurements. The mean MACBC for freshly emitted soot typically spans a narrow range of 8 ± 1 m2 g⁻1 at 550 nm1,2 but is modified by subsequent atmospheric aging. Determination of MACBC requires simultaneous measurements of aerosol light-absorption coefficient (βabs) and BC mass. Here, we compile 230 measured MACBC values from 80 atmospheric studies and explore the effects of sampling location, study duration, instrumentation, and measurement wavelength. The compiled data set shows a broad variability in MACBC values (a factor of about 200%). We conclude that this variability is attributable to a combination of the above-mentioned effects with additional instrumental uncertainties (e.g., cross-sensitivities and/or inadequate instrument calibration). The current state of knowledge does not support the use of simplistic generalizations or assumptions about MACBC in the atmosphere, motivating a recommendation to further improve and standardize measurement practices.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145765590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China’s rapidly expanding cooling sector is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rising electricity demand, with profound implications for national decarbonization goals and global climate targets. Using a bottom-up, scenario-based model, we quantify direct refrigerant-related and indirect energy-related emissions across four subsectors: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. Compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2022–2060, an accelerated transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced energy efficiency (ATE) is projected to reduce cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO 2 -eq, with 70% of these reductions achieved through compliance with the Kigali Amendment compliance and the remainder from faster adoption. The ATE pathway would also avoid 4.1 Gt CO 2 — ~ 28% of total avoided GHG emissions—along with substantial reductions in SO 2 (1.8 Gt), NO x (3.7 Gt), and PM 2.5 (0.3 Gt), lowering global mean temperature by up to 0.015°C by 2060. These results demonstrate the additional climate benefits achievable when efficiency improvements are implemented alongside Kigali-compliant refrigerant transitions.
{"title":"Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down","authors":"Pengnan Jiang, Pallav Purohit, Xueying Xiang, Ziwei Chen, Fuli Bai, Xingchen Zhao, Xu Zhang, Jianxin Hu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01289-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01289-1","url":null,"abstract":"China’s rapidly expanding cooling sector is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rising electricity demand, with profound implications for national decarbonization goals and global climate targets. Using a bottom-up, scenario-based model, we quantify direct refrigerant-related and indirect energy-related emissions across four subsectors: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. Compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2022–2060, an accelerated transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced energy efficiency (ATE) is projected to reduce cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> -eq, with 70% of these reductions achieved through compliance with the Kigali Amendment compliance and the remainder from faster adoption. The ATE pathway would also avoid 4.1 Gt CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> — ~ 28% of total avoided GHG emissions—along with substantial reductions in SO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> (1.8 Gt), NO <jats:sub>x</jats:sub> (3.7 Gt), and PM <jats:sub>2.5</jats:sub> (0.3 Gt), lowering global mean temperature by up to 0.015°C by 2060. These results demonstrate the additional climate benefits achievable when efficiency improvements are implemented alongside Kigali-compliant refrigerant transitions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145771192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01278-4
Sarah Connors, Rochelle Schneider, Johanna Nalau, Michelle Hawkins, Sofia Ferdini, Ying Wang, Michael Rast, Kristin Aunan, Jean-Philippe Aurambout, Mark Dowell, Claire Dufau, Caroline Gevaert, Matti Goldberg, Aaron Golden, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Thelma Krug, Timo Leiter, Tatiana Loboda, Cromwel Lukorito, Antonio Moreno-Rodenas, Naledzani Mudau, Brian O’Connor, Ana Oliveira, Louis Reymondin, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Apolline Saucy, Chris Trisos, Ambrosiol Yobánolo del Rea
{"title":"Publisher Correction: Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators","authors":"Sarah Connors, Rochelle Schneider, Johanna Nalau, Michelle Hawkins, Sofia Ferdini, Ying Wang, Michael Rast, Kristin Aunan, Jean-Philippe Aurambout, Mark Dowell, Claire Dufau, Caroline Gevaert, Matti Goldberg, Aaron Golden, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Thelma Krug, Timo Leiter, Tatiana Loboda, Cromwel Lukorito, Antonio Moreno-Rodenas, Naledzani Mudau, Brian O’Connor, Ana Oliveira, Louis Reymondin, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Apolline Saucy, Chris Trisos, Ambrosiol Yobánolo del Rea","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01278-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01278-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"153 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145771193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding the interannual variability of summer precipitation across the Central-Eastern Himalayas (CEH) is essential for guiding efficient water management and supporting socio-economic development in South Asia. However, the mechanisms through which climate variability shapes CEH summer precipitation variability remain insufficiently understood. Summer precipitation in the CEH is modulated by multiple climate factors, with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation as a sustained weak force and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) exerting non-stationary effects. The SNAO can trigger an anomalous anticyclone over South Asia, directing low-level winds toward the Himalayas’ southern slopes, inducing precipitation anomalies through topographic mechanical forcing. The position shift of the SNAO-driven anomalous anticyclone to the south of the CEH modulates the coupled and decoupled relationship between SNAO and CEH summer precipitation variability. Therefore, understanding the dynamic links between the SNAO and CEH summer precipitation is key to enhancing precipitation prediction accuracy.
{"title":"Non-stationary influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on summer precipitation in the Central-Eastern Himalayas","authors":"Qiang Zhang, Xuelong Chen, Yaoming Ma, Dianbin Cao, Yangkun Lyu, Shuai Hu, Yiting Yang, Zeyong Hu, Xin Xu, Sunil Subba","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01268-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01268-6","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the interannual variability of summer precipitation across the Central-Eastern Himalayas (CEH) is essential for guiding efficient water management and supporting socio-economic development in South Asia. However, the mechanisms through which climate variability shapes CEH summer precipitation variability remain insufficiently understood. Summer precipitation in the CEH is modulated by multiple climate factors, with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation as a sustained weak force and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) exerting non-stationary effects. The SNAO can trigger an anomalous anticyclone over South Asia, directing low-level winds toward the Himalayas’ southern slopes, inducing precipitation anomalies through topographic mechanical forcing. The position shift of the SNAO-driven anomalous anticyclone to the south of the CEH modulates the coupled and decoupled relationship between SNAO and CEH summer precipitation variability. Therefore, understanding the dynamic links between the SNAO and CEH summer precipitation is key to enhancing precipitation prediction accuracy.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"76 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145746829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01263-x
Haixia Xiao, Feng Zhang, Lingxiao Wang, Baoxiang Pan, Yannian Zhu, Minghuai Wang, Wenwen Li, Bin Guo, Jun Li
Clouds play a critical role in Earth’s hydrological and energy cycles, and accurately representing their properties is essential for effective numerical modeling and weather forecasting. Machine learning methods have been widely used for cloud property retrieval; however, most existing techniques are deterministic and do not incorporate uncertainty quantification. Generative machine learning has made significant advances in various domains, including natural language processing, image generation, and notably weather forecasting, where it has enabled ensemble predictions and the quantification of forecast uncertainty. This ability to quantify uncertainty offers valuable opportunities for cloud remote sensing. In this study, we propose a novel cloud property retrieval method, CloudDiff, based on a generative diffusion model. By leveraging thermal infrared observations from the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), CloudDiff generates high spatiotemporal resolution cloud properties for both daytime and nighttime conditions, increasing the resolution of Himawari-8/AHI cloud retrievals from 2 km to 1 km. Unlike deterministic retrieval methods, CloudDiff generates multiple samples from the underlying probability distribution, allowing for a diverse range of plausible retrievals and taking steps towards providing uncertainty assessment. Additionally, CloudDiff produces sharper samples and better captures fine local features, enhancing the precision of cloud property retrieval. By averaging over the ensemble of generated samples, we demonstrate that both the accuracy and reliability of the retrievals are significantly improved. These high-resolution cloud properties have been successfully applied to analyze extreme weather events, such as typhoons, providing potentially valuable insights into atmospheric processes.
{"title":"High-resolution ensemble retrieval of cloud properties for all-day based on geostationary satellite","authors":"Haixia Xiao, Feng Zhang, Lingxiao Wang, Baoxiang Pan, Yannian Zhu, Minghuai Wang, Wenwen Li, Bin Guo, Jun Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01263-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01263-x","url":null,"abstract":"Clouds play a critical role in Earth’s hydrological and energy cycles, and accurately representing their properties is essential for effective numerical modeling and weather forecasting. Machine learning methods have been widely used for cloud property retrieval; however, most existing techniques are deterministic and do not incorporate uncertainty quantification. Generative machine learning has made significant advances in various domains, including natural language processing, image generation, and notably weather forecasting, where it has enabled ensemble predictions and the quantification of forecast uncertainty. This ability to quantify uncertainty offers valuable opportunities for cloud remote sensing. In this study, we propose a novel cloud property retrieval method, CloudDiff, based on a generative diffusion model. By leveraging thermal infrared observations from the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), CloudDiff generates high spatiotemporal resolution cloud properties for both daytime and nighttime conditions, increasing the resolution of Himawari-8/AHI cloud retrievals from 2 km to 1 km. Unlike deterministic retrieval methods, CloudDiff generates multiple samples from the underlying probability distribution, allowing for a diverse range of plausible retrievals and taking steps towards providing uncertainty assessment. Additionally, CloudDiff produces sharper samples and better captures fine local features, enhancing the precision of cloud property retrieval. By averaging over the ensemble of generated samples, we demonstrate that both the accuracy and reliability of the retrievals are significantly improved. These high-resolution cloud properties have been successfully applied to analyze extreme weather events, such as typhoons, providing potentially valuable insights into atmospheric processes.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145746779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5
Maximilien Bolot, Rémy Roca, Thomas Fiolleau, Caroline Muller
According to the scientific consensus, tropical convection must decrease with global warming. This decrease is manifested by a decrease of the mass transported in the upward branch of the atmospheric overturning circulation – the convective mass flux – and a connected decrease of high clouds in the tropics, with implications for climate sensitivity. By using kilometer-scale simulations in radiative-convective equilibrium and a convective tracking algorithm, we show that no such decrease occurs in storms when taken individually and that the mass transport per storm increases instead. Storms can achieve this result by aggregating more surface of the convective cores – the inner part of the storm doing the vertical transport – so that the decrease of tropical convection is actually explained by a decrease in the total number of storms. There is little variation of the mean pressure velocity in the cores of the storms, a robust finding of this study. This remarkable invariance of the mean pressure velocity points to an emerging property of convection that should receive more attention in future studies.
{"title":"No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming","authors":"Maximilien Bolot, Rémy Roca, Thomas Fiolleau, Caroline Muller","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5","url":null,"abstract":"According to the scientific consensus, tropical convection must decrease with global warming. This decrease is manifested by a decrease of the mass transported in the upward branch of the atmospheric overturning circulation – the convective mass flux – and a connected decrease of high clouds in the tropics, with implications for climate sensitivity. By using kilometer-scale simulations in radiative-convective equilibrium and a convective tracking algorithm, we show that no such decrease occurs in storms when taken individually and that the mass transport per storm increases instead. Storms can achieve this result by aggregating more surface of the convective cores – the inner part of the storm doing the vertical transport – so that the decrease of tropical convection is actually explained by a decrease in the total number of storms. There is little variation of the mean pressure velocity in the cores of the storms, a robust finding of this study. This remarkable invariance of the mean pressure velocity points to an emerging property of convection that should receive more attention in future studies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"145 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145746778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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