Sensitivity analysis of a hydrodynamic and harmful algal model in a riverine system

Abstract

Simulating algae blooms using a hydrodynamic-water quality model is challenging because it requires a thorough understanding of physical and biological processes and involves numerous parameters. This study conducted a sensitivity analysis of the EFDC+ hydrodynamic and water quality model for simulating cyanobacteria growth, an important Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) species in the Ohio River, USA. The sensitivity analysis assessed 23 model input parameters, divided into nine functional groups according to their characteristics. This assessment analyzes the impact of changing these input parameters on four water quality model outputs including algae (i.e., cyanobacteria), dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Light extinction parameters, maximum algal growth rate, and algal base metabolism were identified as the most sensitive parameters for simulating algal growth. Solar radiation required for algal growth was moderately sensitive. Currently, there are only a few studies that simulate HAB dynamics in riverine systems. This study deepens our understanding of HAB development in rivers with lock and dam structures that create a series of pools along the river. Future work will involve focusing on the sensitive parameters in model calibration.