{"title":"Predicting fish spawning phenology for adaptive management: Integrating thermal drivers and fishery constraints","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106713","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate warming is causing shifts in reproductive phenology, a crucial life history trait determining offspring survival and population productivity. Evaluating these impacts on exploited marine resources is essential for implementing adaptive measures from an ecosystemic approach. This study introduces a statistical model designed to predict fish spawning phenology from sea surface temperature profiles, integrating mortality-corrected hatch-date distributions inferred from fishery-dependent samplings, along with the gonadosomatic index of adult individuals. When applied to different dolphinfish (<em>Coryphaena hippurus</em>) populations across a broad latitudinal range, the model reasonably predicts the spawning phenology across its extensive thermal ranges, elucidating a direct relationship between mean annual temperature and the breadth of the spawning season. Despite the varying thermal profiles, results show a consistent timing of spawning peaks approximately 49 days before the peak in temperature. Importantly, these findings account for the impact of fishery constraints, such as seasonal closures or different sampling schedules, offering a robust tool for adjusting management practices in response to inter-annual temperature variations. These insights are critical for both short-term fishery management, including the strategic planning of seasonal closures, and long-term projections of spawning phenology shifts under changing thermal regimes. By enhancing our ability to predict spawning times, this research contributes significantly to the sustainable management of fish populations and the adaptive response to environmental changes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":18204,"journal":{"name":"Marine environmental research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014111362400374X/pdfft?md5=a183691704c55e535f6cfe155b72a0ef&pid=1-s2.0-S014111362400374X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Marine environmental research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014111362400374X","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate warming is causing shifts in reproductive phenology, a crucial life history trait determining offspring survival and population productivity. Evaluating these impacts on exploited marine resources is essential for implementing adaptive measures from an ecosystemic approach. This study introduces a statistical model designed to predict fish spawning phenology from sea surface temperature profiles, integrating mortality-corrected hatch-date distributions inferred from fishery-dependent samplings, along with the gonadosomatic index of adult individuals. When applied to different dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) populations across a broad latitudinal range, the model reasonably predicts the spawning phenology across its extensive thermal ranges, elucidating a direct relationship between mean annual temperature and the breadth of the spawning season. Despite the varying thermal profiles, results show a consistent timing of spawning peaks approximately 49 days before the peak in temperature. Importantly, these findings account for the impact of fishery constraints, such as seasonal closures or different sampling schedules, offering a robust tool for adjusting management practices in response to inter-annual temperature variations. These insights are critical for both short-term fishery management, including the strategic planning of seasonal closures, and long-term projections of spawning phenology shifts under changing thermal regimes. By enhancing our ability to predict spawning times, this research contributes significantly to the sustainable management of fish populations and the adaptive response to environmental changes.
期刊介绍:
Marine Environmental Research publishes original research papers on chemical, physical, and biological interactions in the oceans and coastal waters. The journal serves as a forum for new information on biology, chemistry, and toxicology and syntheses that advance understanding of marine environmental processes.
Submission of multidisciplinary studies is encouraged. Studies that utilize experimental approaches to clarify the roles of anthropogenic and natural causes of changes in marine ecosystems are especially welcome, as are those studies that represent new developments of a theoretical or conceptual aspect of marine science. All papers published in this journal are reviewed by qualified peers prior to acceptance and publication. Examples of topics considered to be appropriate for the journal include, but are not limited to, the following:
– The extent, persistence, and consequences of change and the recovery from such change in natural marine systems
– The biochemical, physiological, and ecological consequences of contaminants to marine organisms and ecosystems
– The biogeochemistry of naturally occurring and anthropogenic substances
– Models that describe and predict the above processes
– Monitoring studies, to the extent that their results provide new information on functional processes
– Methodological papers describing improved quantitative techniques for the marine sciences.