Simulation of hydrogen transportation development path and carbon emission reduction path based on LEAP model - A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

IF 9.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Energy Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114337

Chaofan Shi , Guangyu Qin , Qinliang Tan , Jiahui Yang , Xi Chen , Qi Liu , Tianjin Zhang , Daniel M. Kammen

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Abstract

Hydrogen-fuelled vehicles have attracted significant attention around the world recent years as the main form of hydrogen transportation. Chinese government in September 2020 has introduced corresponding supporting policies. In particular, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is the first batch of pilot cities. To research the development of hydrogen transportation and carbon emission reduction paths in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, we construct LEAP-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration Hydrogen Transportation model, and simulate it based on the scenario analysis method. The results show that the total hydrogen demand reaches 7,975,860 tonnes in the year 2060. And the freight transportation sector is the largest hydrogen consumer in transportation. For carbon emission reduction, transportation sector under different scenarios could achieve net-zero emission in year 2060, with total emission reduction 431.19 million metric tonnes. We suggest that the promotion of hydrogen transportation should be carried out in stages. Early large-scale development of hydrogen-fuelled vehicles in sectors such as passenger cars and specialized vehicles is not significant in emission reduction, and it is more appropriate to start with medium and large-sized commercial vehicles. Gradually extend to the whole transportation sector after the technology of hydrogen-fuelled vehicles is mature and the supply capacity of clean hydrogen is improved.

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基于 LEAP 模型的氢能交通发展路径与碳减排路径模拟 - 京津冀地区案例研究

氢燃料汽车作为氢能交通的主要形式，近年来在世界范围内备受关注。中国政府于 2020 年 9 月出台了相应的扶持政策。其中，京津冀城市群是首批试点城市。为研究京津冀城市群氢能交通发展及碳减排路径，我们构建了 LEAP-京津冀城市群氢能交通模型，并基于情景分析方法进行了模拟。结果表明，到 2060 年，氢气总需求量将达到 7,975,860 吨。而货运部门是交通领域最大的氢气消费部门。在碳减排方面，不同情景下的交通部门在 2060 年可实现净零排放，总减排量为 4.3119 亿吨。我们建议分阶段推广氢燃料交通。早期在乘用车、专用车等领域大规模发展氢燃料汽车，减排效果并不显著，更适合从大中型商用车开始。待氢燃料汽车技术成熟、清洁氢气供应能力提高后，再逐步推广到整个交通领域。

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.