Spatiotemporal characteristics and multi-scenario simulation of land use change and ecological security in the mountainous areas: Implications for supporting sustainable land management and ecological planning

IF 3.3 2区 社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100286
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Abstract

The acceleration of global urbanization has intensified land use activities, which threaten the ecological environment and hinder the achievement of sustainable socioeconomic development goals. With the background of continuous land use expansion, the reasonable management of land use and ecological protection has increasingly become an important issue. This study constructs an ecological security (ES) index to evaluate the ES pattern, and employs the Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS) model for multi-scenario simulation of land use patterns in mountainous areas. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land and grassland showed a sharp decrease, with areas of −128.64 and −228.18 km² respectively, while forest land, urban land, and other construction land increased, with areas of 116.12, 31.21, and 120.69 km² respectively. Over time, the mountainous areas mainly exhibited low and moderate ES patterns. Furthermore, for 2020–2030, under the natural development scenario, cultivated land, forest land, and grassland will show a decrease, while urban and other construction land will show a sharp increase. In contrast, under the ecological protection scenario, ecological land will show significant increase, and the patch expansion of urban construction land will be smaller. These results confirm the positive contribution of ES protection effects to improving the land use development, and support insightful guidance for formulating policies on ecological management in mountainous areas.

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山区土地利用变化与生态安全的时空特征和多情景模拟:支持可持续土地管理和生态规划的意义
全球城市化进程的加快加剧了土地利用活动,威胁着生态环境,阻碍了社会经济可持续发展目标的实现。在土地利用不断扩张的背景下,土地利用的合理管理和生态保护日益成为一个重要问题。本研究构建了生态安全(ES)指数来评价生态安全格局,并采用未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型对山区土地利用格局进行了多情景模拟。结果表明,从 2000 年到 2020 年,耕地和草地面积急剧减少,分别为-128.64 和-228.18 平方公里;林地、城市用地和其他建设用地面积有所增加,分别为 116.12、31.21 和 120.69 平方公里。随着时间的推移,山区主要呈现出低度和中度 ES 模式。此外,2020-2030 年,在自然发展情景下,耕地、林地和草地将减少,而城市和其他建设用地将急剧增加。相比之下,在生态保护情景下,生态用地将显著增加,城市建设用地的成片扩张将较小。这些结果证实了生态保护效应对改善土地利用发展的积极贡献,并为制定山区生态管理政策提供了有见地的指导。
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来源期刊
Sustainable Futures
Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
1.80%
发文量
34
审稿时长
71 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.
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