Patterns of change, driving forces and future simulation of LULC in the Fuxian Lake Basin based on the IM-RF-Markov-PLUS framework

IF 3.3 2区 社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100289
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Abstract

Studying land use and land cover (LULC) patterns, identifying driving forces, and simulating future scenarios are vital for grasping the complex connection between human actions and the environment. This helps in shaping sustainable land management strategies and preparing for the impacts of climate change. However, there is a necessity for a comprehensive system modeling framework that can accurately capture spatial and temporal changes in LULC, analyze driving mechanisms, and provide an integrated analysis of future simulations. In this paper, a comprehensive IM-RF-Markov-PLUS analysis framework is developed, focusing on the Fuxian Lake Basin (FLB) as a study area. The study aims to achieve accurate prediction of LULC by combining the microscopic LULC change trend and the contribution of macroscopic driving forces. The results show that: (1) The IM-RF-Markov-PLUS framework can explore the change patterns and driving mechanisms of LULC in the FLB, and accurately predict the LULC in the FLB. Compared with the PLUS model, its accuracy is improved by 2 %. (2) IM analysis reveals that LULC transformation in the FLB is both general and specific. Although the area of grassland, buildings, roads and structures converted to desert and bare land is minimal, it shows relatively tendentious and specific change characteristics. (3) Different land types are significantly affected by driving factors, with the expansion of LULCs is constrained by major factors. The distance to the lake has the most significant impact on the distribution of garden land, while the primary road has the greatest impact on the distribution of forestland. (4) Under different scenarios, the spatial heterogeneity of LULC patterns is obvious. In 2035, under baseline and economic development scenarios, cultivated land will decrease, while other LULC types will increase. Under the cultivated land protection scenario, cultivated land is protected, with an increase of 5.85 %. Under the ecological protection scenario, there is an increase in ecological land. The largest increase is in forestland, which increases by a total of 3.46 %. The ecological protection scenario presents a viable approach for ensuring the sustainable development of the FLB. The results of this paper may serve as a reliable foundation for implementing LULC strategies in the FLB and offer guidance for crafting sustainable development regulations at the regional level.

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基于 IM-RF-Markov-PLUS 框架的抚仙湖流域土地利用、土地利用变化和土地利用变化的模式、驱动力和未来模拟
研究土地利用和土地覆被 (LULC) 模式、确定驱动力和模拟未来情景,对于把握人类行为与环境之间的复杂联系至关重要。这有助于制定可持续的土地管理战略,并为应对气候变化的影响做好准备。然而,有必要建立一个全面的系统建模框架,以准确捕捉 LULC 的时空变化,分析驱动机制,并对未来模拟进行综合分析。本文以抚仙湖流域(FLB)为研究区域,建立了 IM-RF-Markov-PLUS 综合分析框架。该研究旨在结合微观 LULC 变化趋势和宏观驱动力的贡献,实现对 LULC 的精确预测。研究结果表明(1)IM-RF-Markov-PLUS 框架能够探索 FLB 中 LULC 的变化规律和驱动机制,并准确预测 FLB 中的 LULC。与 PLUS 模型相比,其精度提高了 2%。(2) IM 分析表明,FLB 中 LULC 的变化既有普遍性又有特殊性。虽然草地、建筑物、道路和构筑物转化为荒漠和裸地的面积很小,但却表现出相对倾向性和特殊性的变化特征。(3)不同土地类型受驱动因素影响显著,土地利用、土地利用变化和土地利用变化的扩展受到主要因素的制约。距离湖泊的远近对园地的分布影响最大,而一级公路对林地的分布影响最大。(4) 在不同情景下,土地利用、土地利用变化(LULC)格局的空间异质性明显。2035 年,在基准情景和经济发展情景下,耕地将减少,而其他 LULC 类型将增加。在耕地保护情景下,耕地得到保护,增加了 5.85%。在生态保护情景下,生态用地有所增加。增加最多的是林地,共增加了 3.46%。生态保护方案为确保森林和林地的可持续发展提供了一种可行的方法。本文的研究结果可作为在 FLB 实施 LULC 战略的可靠依据,并为在区域层面制定可持续发展法规提供指导。
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来源期刊
Sustainable Futures
Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
1.80%
发文量
34
审稿时长
71 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.
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