Historical air pollutant emissions and future sustainable pathways of global cement plants

Abstract

Assessing historical emission trajectories and forecasting future changes at the unit level for the global cement industry are vital for summarizing past experiences in green management and designing a plant-by-plant transition roadmap. Here, we evaluate the evolution of major air pollutant emissions during 1990−2020 and explore mitigation pathways for future sustainable development, based on a developed unit-level global cement emissions database. Our findings indicate that strengthening emission standards is an effective strategy for decoupling air pollutant emissions from clinker production, particularly for emerging economies. Without stringent emission controls, these economies contributed to 49.1%, 39.8% and 74.1% of SO₂, NO_x, and PM_2.5 emissions in 2020. With stricter standards, emerging economies can achieve a 0.6 Mt NO_x emission reduction despite a 70% growth in cement demand from 2020 to 2060. By deepening mitigation efforts, China and developed countries can reduce NO_x and PM_2.5 emissions by 1.4 and 0.9 Mt, respectively, by 2030.