Pub Date : 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108798
S. Duex , P. Busch , A. Kendall
Electric vehicles (EVs) require more than double the copper of conventional vehicles and are crucial for meeting net-zero targets for the transport sector. To understand the future of copper supply and the effects of the EV transition, we construct a mine-level optimization model to simulate supply dynamics under a variety of demand and copper recycling scenarios in a net-zero future.
We find large additions of new raw-ore-capacity will be necessary by 2050, ranging from 1958 Mt to 6591 Mt, depending on recycling rates and EV battery size. Our highest demand scenario shows insufficient capacity expansion to meet short-term demand, ore grade decline to 0.41%, and 373 new mine openings by 2050. The best scenario (high recycling rates in all sectors and smaller EV batteries) illustrates a pathway to a more sustainable EV transition: demand is met in all years, ore grade remains at 0.5%, and 87 new mines are required.
{"title":"The electric vehicle transition: effects on copper supply dynamics in a net-zero future","authors":"S. Duex , P. Busch , A. Kendall","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108798","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electric vehicles (EVs) require more than double the copper of conventional vehicles and are crucial for meeting net-zero targets for the transport sector. To understand the future of copper supply and the effects of the EV transition, we construct a mine-level optimization model to simulate supply dynamics under a variety of demand and copper recycling scenarios in a net-zero future.</div><div>We find large additions of new raw-ore-capacity will be necessary by 2050, ranging from 1958 Mt to 6591 Mt, depending on recycling rates and EV battery size. Our highest demand scenario shows insufficient capacity expansion to meet short-term demand, ore grade decline to 0.41%, and 373 new mine openings by 2050. The best scenario (high recycling rates in all sectors and smaller EV batteries) illustrates a pathway to a more sustainable EV transition: demand is met in all years, ore grade remains at 0.5%, and 87 new mines are required.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108798"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108790
Hao Lu , Yisen Qian , Lyujun Chen , Wei Zhou , Kun Yan , Tianshu Ji , Yongtao Tang , Jinping Tian
The global alcoholic beverage industry contributes significantly to global carbon emissions, releasing approximately 1.5 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2021. China, as the world’s largest producer and consumer of distilled spirits, faces sustainability challenges due to the high carbon intensity of its baijiu industry. However, current research lacks detailed, high-resolution CF assessment for traditional baijiu products. This study develops a “12987 sauce-flavor baijiu CF model” using over 1,700 primary data points from a representative distillery producing 60,000 tonnes baijiu annually. The model includes 23 sub-modules covering the full cradle-to-gate life cycle. Results show a CF of 6,816 g CO₂-eq per 500 mL bottle, with crop cultivation, packaging process, and natural gas-based distillation, accounting for nearly 86% of total emissions. Targeted carbon reduction strategies are proposed for production and packaging stages. These findings provide actionable insights to support sustainable low-carbon transition in the baijiu sector and broader global spirits industry.
全球酒精饮料行业对全球碳排放的贡献很大，在2021年释放了约15亿吨二氧化碳当量。中国作为世界上最大的蒸馏酒生产国和消费国，由于白酒行业的高碳强度，面临着可持续发展的挑战。然而，目前的研究缺乏对传统白酒产品详细、高分辨率的CF评估。本研究利用一家年产6万吨白酒的代表性酒厂的1700多个数据点，建立了“12987酱味白酒CF模型”。该模型包括23个子模块，涵盖了从摇篮到闸门的整个生命周期。结果表明，每500ml瓶的CF为6,816 g CO₂-eq，其中作物种植，包装过程和天然气蒸馏占总排放量的近86%。针对生产和包装阶段提出了有针对性的碳减排策略。这些发现为支持白酒行业和更广泛的全球烈酒行业的可持续低碳转型提供了可行的见解。
{"title":"Carbon footprint of a traditional Chinese distilled spirit (Baijiu) with high-resolution supply-chain mapping","authors":"Hao Lu , Yisen Qian , Lyujun Chen , Wei Zhou , Kun Yan , Tianshu Ji , Yongtao Tang , Jinping Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global alcoholic beverage industry contributes significantly to global carbon emissions, releasing approximately 1.5 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2021. China, as the world’s largest producer and consumer of distilled spirits, faces sustainability challenges due to the high carbon intensity of its baijiu industry. However, current research lacks detailed, high-resolution CF assessment for traditional baijiu products. This study develops a “12987 sauce-flavor baijiu CF model” using over 1,700 primary data points from a representative distillery producing 60,000 tonnes baijiu annually. The model includes 23 sub-modules covering the full cradle-to-gate life cycle. Results show a CF of 6,816 g CO₂-eq per 500 mL bottle, with crop cultivation, packaging process, and natural gas-based distillation, accounting for nearly 86% of total emissions. Targeted carbon reduction strategies are proposed for production and packaging stages. These findings provide actionable insights to support sustainable low-carbon transition in the baijiu sector and broader global spirits industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108790"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108788
Xianliang Wu , Jinfa Chen , Yaoyue Su , Zhenming Zhang , Jun Wang
Microplastics (MPs) are generally considered biologically inert and do not participate in element cycling in soil because microorganisms in nature lack enzyme systems that can effectively cut off these artificially synthesized polymer chains. However, an increasing number of studies have confirmed that MPs entering the soil can interfere with the stability of the microbial community structure and affect the nutrient cycling processes driven by microorganisms in the soil, thereby affecting greenhouse gas emissions and plant growth. Our understanding concerning the effects of MPs on element cycling, enzyme activity, and microbial gene expression remains unclear. The present review focuses mainly on the effects of MPs on carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycling on soil and plant responses and introduces related advancements, challenges, limitations, and future directions. MPs can significantly affect soil C, N and P cycles and functional microorganisms in soil and correspondingly alter enzyme activities and gene expression related to greenhouse gas emissions (CH4 and N2O), depending on the interactions between the characteristics of the MPs themselves and the soil environment (e.g., moisture status, redox potential, and the microbial community). Despite the rapid development of life cycle assessment, carbon footprint and sustainable development goals related to MPs, this is still a challenging frontier field, reflected mainly in data gaps and standardization, indistinction of the carrier effect, and incompletion of the impact assessment model. Currently, several controversies remain concerning whether the same MPs have varying effects across different soil types; findings from short-term laboratory experiments often conflict with long-term field data, and MPs ultimately enhance or suppress plant absorption of N and P. This review proposes several valuable suggestions for future research, including long-term field experiments, multifactor interactions, molecular ecology techniques, standardized research methods, and coregulatory effects of viruses and hosts, which will narrow the knowledge gap concerning MPs-mediated element cycles in soil.
{"title":"A systematic review of the soil C, N, and P cycles mediated by microplastics: Enzyme activities, greenhouse gas emissions and plant growth","authors":"Xianliang Wu , Jinfa Chen , Yaoyue Su , Zhenming Zhang , Jun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Microplastics (MPs) are generally considered biologically inert and do not participate in element cycling in soil because microorganisms in nature lack enzyme systems that can effectively cut off these artificially synthesized polymer chains. However, an increasing number of studies have confirmed that MPs entering the soil can interfere with the stability of the microbial community structure and affect the nutrient cycling processes driven by microorganisms in the soil, thereby affecting greenhouse gas emissions and plant growth. Our understanding concerning the effects of MPs on element cycling, enzyme activity, and microbial gene expression remains unclear. The present review focuses mainly on the effects of MPs on carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycling on soil and plant responses and introduces related advancements, challenges, limitations, and future directions. MPs can significantly affect soil C, N and P cycles and functional microorganisms in soil and correspondingly alter enzyme activities and gene expression related to greenhouse gas emissions (CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O), depending on the interactions between the characteristics of the MPs themselves and the soil environment (e.g., moisture status, redox potential, and the microbial community). Despite the rapid development of life cycle assessment, carbon footprint and sustainable development goals related to MPs, this is still a challenging frontier field, reflected mainly in data gaps and standardization, indistinction of the carrier effect, and incompletion of the impact assessment model. Currently, several controversies remain concerning whether the same MPs have varying effects across different soil types; findings from short-term laboratory experiments often conflict with long-term field data, and MPs ultimately enhance or suppress plant absorption of N and P. This review proposes several valuable suggestions for future research, including long-term field experiments, multifactor interactions, molecular ecology techniques, standardized research methods, and coregulatory effects of viruses and hosts, which will narrow the knowledge gap concerning MPs-mediated element cycles in soil.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108788"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108786
Vorada Kosajan, Wei Pan, Yang Zhang
This study examined the potential of End-of-Life circular economy systems to reduce embodied carbon in steel modular buildings. A multicycle life cycle assessment framework integrating material flow analysis and time-specific impact factors was developed. A case study involving a typical steel module in Hong Kong showed that landfilling generated 154.9 t CO2 eq. over the period 2020–2070, whereas recycle-priority and reuse-priority scenarios achieved 123.1 t CO2 eq. and 47.2 t CO2 eq., respectively. Reusing the steel module up to ten times reduced embodied carbon by 4.1 t CO2 eq./m2. Component-level analysis revealed that architectural components could significantly contribute to embodied carbon reductions. However, decarbonisation of the upstream industry (steel, aluminium, and electricity) reduced the benefits of multiple reuses by 24.2 %. This paper provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for multiple lifecycle assessment and offers valuable insights into how steel modular construction can enhance decarbonisation through End-of-Life circular economy systems.
{"title":"Reducing embodied carbon in steel modules through end-of-life circular economy systems","authors":"Vorada Kosajan, Wei Pan, Yang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examined the potential of End-of-Life circular economy systems to reduce embodied carbon in steel modular buildings. A multicycle life cycle assessment framework integrating material flow analysis and time-specific impact factors was developed. A case study involving a typical steel module in Hong Kong showed that landfilling generated 154.9 t CO<sub>2</sub> eq. over the period 2020–2070, whereas recycle-priority and reuse-priority scenarios achieved 123.1 t CO<sub>2</sub> eq. and 47.2 t CO<sub>2</sub> eq., respectively. Reusing the steel module up to ten times reduced embodied carbon by 4.1 t CO<sub>2</sub> eq./m<sup>2</sup>. Component-level analysis revealed that architectural components could significantly contribute to embodied carbon reductions. However, decarbonisation of the upstream industry (steel, aluminium, and electricity) reduced the benefits of multiple reuses by 24.2 %. This paper provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for multiple lifecycle assessment and offers valuable insights into how steel modular construction can enhance decarbonisation through End-of-Life circular economy systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108786"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108785
Huizhong Zhang , Tianyuan Zhou , Siqi Wang , Zhiwei Li , Raymond R. Tan , Xiaoping Jia , Fang Wang
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will play an important role in achieving carbon neutrality. In the deployment of CCS, it is important to identify an optimal network to allocate CO2 between CO2 sources and sinks. However, research on source-sink matching has been limited mostly to mathematical programming approaches with inherently limited interpretability to plan CCS involving different emission sectors and different storage reservoirs. Alternative techniques that may offer some interpretability advantages have not been explored as thoroughly. To address this research gap, this study introduces an integrated framework that synergistically combines Carbon Storage Composite Curves (CSCC) with Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED). This CSCC-OED framework is designed for the interpretable, multi-sectoral optimization of CCS infrastructure planning. It could coordinate the dynamic matching of CO₂ source-sink over a multi-decade planning horizon, while addressing constraints of storage capacity, operational timelines, and reservoir availability. The CSCC framework quantifies three critical metrics: additional storage requirement, total storage capacity, and excess capacity. Finally, global sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of parameters on the CCS deployment based on the deployment factors identified by OED method. Results of the case study indicate that the start time of CO2 reservoir is the most statistically significant factor. 10 Gt of CO₂ could be stored via three reservoirs commencing operation in 2025, which contributes to 81.63% of the sectoral emission reduction target. Furthermore, scenarios involving policy-, technology-, and economy-driven CCS pathways are analyzed. This work establishes a systematic decision-support tool for CCS infrastructure planning, emphasizing the criticality of coordinated multi-sectoral strategies and early reservoir deployment to meet carbon neutrality goals.
{"title":"Integrated multi-sectoral approach for planning of carbon capture and storage projects","authors":"Huizhong Zhang , Tianyuan Zhou , Siqi Wang , Zhiwei Li , Raymond R. Tan , Xiaoping Jia , Fang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will play an important role in achieving carbon neutrality. In the deployment of CCS, it is important to identify an optimal network to allocate CO<sub>2</sub> between CO<sub>2</sub> sources and sinks. However, research on source-sink matching has been limited mostly to mathematical programming approaches with inherently limited interpretability to plan CCS involving different emission sectors and different storage reservoirs. Alternative techniques that may offer some interpretability advantages have not been explored as thoroughly. To address this research gap, this study introduces an integrated framework that synergistically combines Carbon Storage Composite Curves (CSCC) with Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED). This CSCC-OED framework is designed for the interpretable, multi-sectoral optimization of CCS infrastructure planning. It could coordinate the dynamic matching of CO₂ source-sink over a multi-decade planning horizon, while addressing constraints of storage capacity, operational timelines, and reservoir availability. The CSCC framework quantifies three critical metrics: additional storage requirement, total storage capacity, and excess capacity. Finally, global sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of parameters on the CCS deployment based on the deployment factors identified by OED method. Results of the case study indicate that the start time of CO<sub>2</sub> reservoir is the most statistically significant factor. 10 Gt of CO₂ could be stored via three reservoirs commencing operation in 2025, which contributes to 81.63% of the sectoral emission reduction target. Furthermore, scenarios involving policy-, technology-, and economy-driven CCS pathways are analyzed. This work establishes a systematic decision-support tool for CCS infrastructure planning, emphasizing the criticality of coordinated multi-sectoral strategies and early reservoir deployment to meet carbon neutrality goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108785"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145961850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108752
Luja von Köckritz , Oreane Edelenbosch , Sebastiaan Deetman , Frederike Arp , Roel Brouwer , Raoul Schram , Marianne Zanon-Zotin , Detlef van Vuuren
Transport vehicles are a major driver of global material extraction, making their material needs central to circular economy strategies. Yet few studies address the material implications of maintenance, leaving the link between vehicle lifetime extension and maintenance poorly quantified. Using a new global, stock-driven model, IMAGE Materials, coupled to the IMAGE integrated assessment model, we link material demand to transport services and account for scheduled maintenance for land-based transport. Results show that maintenance adds ∼30 % of material demand for road vehicles and up to 100 % for high-speed rail. Maintenance flows for road modes are rubber-intensive, while rail requires steel. Still, lifetime extension leads to a net reduction in total material demand of ∼16 % (95.8 Mt) in 2100, but increased maintenance partly offsets these savings, adding 69.5 Mt with age-related or 29.3 Mt with age-capped maintenance material growth. These findings highlight maintenance as a structural component of vehicle material demand, requiring complementary policies like standards and repair incentives.
{"title":"Old is gold? Vehicle maintenance material demand of lifetime extension: dynamic stock modelling","authors":"Luja von Köckritz , Oreane Edelenbosch , Sebastiaan Deetman , Frederike Arp , Roel Brouwer , Raoul Schram , Marianne Zanon-Zotin , Detlef van Vuuren","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108752","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108752","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transport vehicles are a major driver of global material extraction, making their material needs central to circular economy strategies. Yet few studies address the material implications of maintenance, leaving the link between vehicle lifetime extension and maintenance poorly quantified. Using a new global, stock-driven model, IMAGE Materials, coupled to the IMAGE integrated assessment model, we link material demand to transport services and account for scheduled maintenance for land-based transport. Results show that maintenance adds ∼30 % of material demand for road vehicles and up to 100 % for high-speed rail. Maintenance flows for road modes are rubber-intensive, while rail requires steel. Still, lifetime extension leads to a net reduction in total material demand of ∼16 % (95.8 Mt) in 2100, but increased maintenance partly offsets these savings, adding 69.5 Mt with age-related or 29.3 Mt with age-capped maintenance material growth. These findings highlight maintenance as a structural component of vehicle material demand, requiring complementary policies like standards and repair incentives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108752"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108784
Peize Wang , Tingting Liu , Gangqi Cheng , Yufeng Wu , Shengnan Wang , Kun Zhu
With the rapid growth of China’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) and wind power sectors, demand for neodymium and dysprosium is surging, while their supply is constrained by limited reserves, mining policies, and carbon-intensive production. Yet existing studies have rarely examined resource constraints and emission reduction targets within a unified framework, and have not fully integrated demand, supply, and the mitigation effects of recycling. To address this gap, this study develops an integrated material flow and carbon emission assessment framework for neodymium and dysprosium under the renewable energy transition and projects their supply-demand dynamics. The results show that by 2060, cumulative demand from NEVs is projected to reach 535.2-985.6 kilotonnes (kt) of neodymium and dysprosium combined, while wind power is expected to require a further 182.4-455.4 kt in total. Supply forecasts indicate that neodymium demand can be met under policy liberalization, but gaps emerge under quota-controlled and worsen when accounting for production losses. In contrast, dysprosium faces long term shortages across all scenarios. Recycling plays a critical role: neodymium recycling can largely meet renewable demand and reduce dependence on mining, while dysprosium recycling remains limited due to scarcity. A carbon emission assessment framework is also developed for neodymium and dysprosium production. Power mix optimization could reduce emissions by 7.1-16.5 million tonnes CO₂-equivalent (Mt CO₂-eq) for neodymium and 3.6-8.5 Mt CO₂-eq for dysprosium, while recycling contributes 3.3-5 and 1-1.4 Mt CO₂-eq reductions, respectively. Combining recycling with a cleaner power mix is essential to securing rare earth supply and reducing lifecycle emissions.
{"title":"Securing low-carbon rare earth supply for the renewable energy sector: Demand, circularity, and carbon mitigation of neodymium and dysprosium","authors":"Peize Wang , Tingting Liu , Gangqi Cheng , Yufeng Wu , Shengnan Wang , Kun Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the rapid growth of China’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) and wind power sectors, demand for neodymium and dysprosium is surging, while their supply is constrained by limited reserves, mining policies, and carbon-intensive production. Yet existing studies have rarely examined resource constraints and emission reduction targets within a unified framework, and have not fully integrated demand, supply, and the mitigation effects of recycling. To address this gap, this study develops an integrated material flow and carbon emission assessment framework for neodymium and dysprosium under the renewable energy transition and projects their supply-demand dynamics. The results show that by 2060, cumulative demand from NEVs is projected to reach 535.2-985.6 kilotonnes (kt) of neodymium and dysprosium combined, while wind power is expected to require a further 182.4-455.4 kt in total. Supply forecasts indicate that neodymium demand can be met under policy liberalization, but gaps emerge under quota-controlled and worsen when accounting for production losses. In contrast, dysprosium faces long term shortages across all scenarios. Recycling plays a critical role: neodymium recycling can largely meet renewable demand and reduce dependence on mining, while dysprosium recycling remains limited due to scarcity. A carbon emission assessment framework is also developed for neodymium and dysprosium production. Power mix optimization could reduce emissions by 7.1-16.5 million tonnes CO₂-equivalent (Mt CO₂-eq) for neodymium and 3.6-8.5 Mt CO₂-eq for dysprosium, while recycling contributes 3.3-5 and 1-1.4 Mt CO₂-eq reductions, respectively. Combining recycling with a cleaner power mix is essential to securing rare earth supply and reducing lifecycle emissions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108784"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study introduces a novel methodology for urban litter detection and management by combining enhanced pedestrian inspection with automated visual registry, GPS, and machine learning. To establish the model, the research team collected over 10,000 georeferenced point-of-view (POV) images across three predetermined routes in downtown Santiago, Chile. A pre-trained YOLOv8 deep learning model was successfully utilized to binary classify the presence of litter in each image, achieving a precision of 89.03%. Subsequently, a multivariate logistic regression model quantified the correlation between these detection results and urban contextual variables, such as proximity to non-residential activities and transport hubs. The key finding demonstrates that litter occurrence is significantly more prevalent in areas surrounding metro stations and bus stops, thereby providing empirical data to inform targeted, spatially optimized waste management strategies. This approach offers a scalable, low-cost solution for cities globally, particularly in the Global South.
{"title":"Mapping waste mismanagement: Detecting litter hotspots with geospatial AI and pedestrian imagery","authors":"Nicolás Valenzuela-Levi, Cristobal Nilo, Javiera Ponce-Méndez, Nicolás Gálvez Ramírez","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces a novel methodology for urban litter detection and management by combining enhanced pedestrian inspection with automated visual registry, GPS, and machine learning. To establish the model, the research team collected over 10,000 georeferenced point-of-view (POV) images across three predetermined routes in downtown Santiago, Chile. A pre-trained YOLOv8 deep learning model was successfully utilized to binary classify the presence of litter in each image, achieving a precision of 89.03%. Subsequently, a multivariate logistic regression model quantified the correlation between these detection results and urban contextual variables, such as proximity to non-residential activities and transport hubs. The key finding demonstrates that litter occurrence is significantly more prevalent in areas surrounding metro stations and bus stops, thereby providing empirical data to inform targeted, spatially optimized waste management strategies. This approach offers a scalable, low-cost solution for cities globally, particularly in the Global South.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108772"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108774
Yiming Su , Guangjin Zhou , Mingyuan Wang , Xiaoyun Li , Tao Liang , Lingqing Wang , Jian Hu , Jixi Gao , Wenwu Zhao , Siyuan Tao , Peter E. Holm , Jörg Rinklebe , Riqi Zhang , Cong-Qiang Liu , Rong Gong , Yizhong Huan
Strong interactions among six Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—food (2), water (6), energy (7), economy (8), climate (13), and ecology (15) (FWEECE)—reflect the core nexus of the human-nature relationship under global change. However, research on their causal interactions is limited, and priorities for global transformation remain elusive. Here, we developed an integrated index to assess global progress in SDG coordination-evenness, and applied Gated Recurrent Unit, Panel Vector Autoregression, and link prediction models to capture the SDG causal network among 33 targets in FWEECE. Using machine learning and network analysis, we then prioritized SDG targets. We further simulated network perturbations to identify priority actions that enhance network resilience. The results indicated limited global progress in both the coordination and evenness of these SDGs since 2000, with target 2.4 (sustainable agriculture) identified as the key priority for future progress. Mitigating high-weight trade-offs, especially from targets 15.2 (sustainable forest management) to 8.2 (economic productivity), while strengthening 84% of synergies, led by 6.6 (water-related ecosystem) to 2.c (food price stability), presents an effective strategy for advancing FWEECE. Our study provides new insights into human-earth coupling, contributing global governance transformations for the 2030 Agenda.
{"title":"Priorities for enhancing resilience of SDG causal network from a human-nature perspective","authors":"Yiming Su , Guangjin Zhou , Mingyuan Wang , Xiaoyun Li , Tao Liang , Lingqing Wang , Jian Hu , Jixi Gao , Wenwu Zhao , Siyuan Tao , Peter E. Holm , Jörg Rinklebe , Riqi Zhang , Cong-Qiang Liu , Rong Gong , Yizhong Huan","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108774","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108774","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Strong interactions among six Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—food (2), water (6), energy (7), economy (8), climate (13), and ecology (15) (FWEECE)—reflect the core nexus of the human-nature relationship under global change. However, research on their causal interactions is limited, and priorities for global transformation remain elusive. Here, we developed an integrated index to assess global progress in SDG coordination-evenness, and applied Gated Recurrent Unit, Panel Vector Autoregression, and link prediction models to capture the SDG causal network among 33 targets in FWEECE. Using machine learning and network analysis, we then prioritized SDG targets. We further simulated network perturbations to identify priority actions that enhance network resilience. The results indicated limited global progress in both the coordination and evenness of these SDGs since 2000, with target 2.4 (sustainable agriculture) identified as the key priority for future progress. Mitigating high-weight trade-offs, especially from targets 15.2 (sustainable forest management) to 8.2 (economic productivity), while strengthening 84% of synergies, led by 6.6 (water-related ecosystem) to 2.c (food price stability), presents an effective strategy for advancing FWEECE. Our study provides new insights into human-earth coupling, contributing global governance transformations for the 2030 Agenda.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108774"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108787
Zhuoer Li, Mihaela Banu, Daniel R. Cooper
Production of fiber-reinforced polymer composites is materially-inefficient and energy-intensive. This study identifies improvement opportunities by conducting a material flow and energy analysis of the 2024 global composite supply chain. Bayesian inference is used to reconcile production material flow data extracted from academic and grey literature (e.g., industry reports) with data noise assigned using a Pedigree Matrix, generating balanced mass flows with quantified uncertainty. Supply chain energy requirements are determined by coupling the material flows with feedstock and process energy intensities collected from LCA literature and databases.
In 2024, around 12.2 Mt of composites entered use, requiring around 2030 PJprimary to produce and generating approximately 2.5 Mt of manufacturing scrap. Component production from feedstocks accounted for 45% of primary energy demand (60:40, thermoset:thermoplastic), followed by resin (40%) and fiber (15%) production. This study discusses opportunities and challenges in transitioning to lower-energy production, including alternatives to energy-intensive oil-based feedstocks and more efficient manufacturing processes. Energy attributable to system material losses (determined using input–output analysis) rivaled those of the largest end-use sectors. This study examines strategies to increase system-level material utilization by boosting closed-loop recycling of mass-production scrap (e.g., from injection molding) and shifting from low-yield (semi-)manual processes to automated manufacturing (e.g., pultrusion).
{"title":"Mapping the global flow of fiber-reinforced polymer composites and supply chain energy requirements","authors":"Zhuoer Li, Mihaela Banu, Daniel R. Cooper","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2026.108787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Production of fiber-reinforced polymer composites is materially-inefficient and energy-intensive. This study identifies improvement opportunities by conducting a material flow and energy analysis of the 2024 global composite supply chain. Bayesian inference is used to reconcile production material flow data extracted from academic and grey literature (e.g., industry reports) with data noise assigned using a Pedigree Matrix, generating balanced mass flows with quantified uncertainty. Supply chain energy requirements are determined by coupling the material flows with feedstock and process energy intensities collected from LCA literature and databases.</div><div>In 2024, around 12.2 Mt of composites entered use, requiring around 2030 PJ<sub>primary</sub> to produce and generating approximately 2.5 Mt of manufacturing scrap. Component production from feedstocks accounted for 45% of primary energy demand (60:40, thermoset:thermoplastic), followed by resin (40%) and fiber (15%) production. This study discusses opportunities and challenges in transitioning to lower-energy production, including alternatives to energy-intensive oil-based feedstocks and more efficient manufacturing processes. Energy attributable to system material losses (determined using input–output analysis) rivaled those of the largest end-use sectors. This study examines strategies to increase system-level material utilization by boosting closed-loop recycling of mass-production scrap (e.g., from injection molding) and shifting from low-yield (semi-)manual processes to automated manufacturing (e.g., pultrusion).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 108787"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号