Land use policy implications of demographic shifts: Analyzing the impact of aging rural populations on agricultural carbon emissions in China

Abstract

China is facing a unique demographic challenge with its population entering a phase of negative growth, alongside the growing issue of Rural Population Aging (RPA). This has brought significant attention to the broader population challenges the country is encountering. While the aging of rural populations has been a focal point of discussion, there remains a need for deeper insights into how it specifically impacts Agricultural Carbon Emissions (ACE). To address this knowledge gap, this study has devised a research framework grounded in the human-land relationships theory. This framework seeks to analyze the influence of RPA on ACE. Empirical tests have been carried out using provincial (municipal) panel data spanning from 2002 to 2019. The study's findings indicate that RPA exacerbates ACE, particularly in regions with a pronounced aging rural demographic. However, this adverse effect is lessened in coastal areas and placed with a lighter rural aging phenomenon. Additionally, the negative impact gradually diminishes in the long term. From a land utilization perspective, RPA contributes to Land Misallocation (LM), serving as a critical conduit through which RPA influences ACE. Nevertheless, mitigating factors such as Land Transfer (LT) and Land Scale (LS) help alleviate this negative influence. This mitigation is more pronounced in the long run. In the context of smallholder farmers, the study suggests that a moderate-scale expansion and the promotion of new agricultural models can be instrumental in achieving broader agricultural carbon reduction targets.