An agent-based cooperative co-evolutionary framework for optimizing the production planning of energy supply chains under uncertainty scenarios

Abstract

Nowadays, energy and power companies compete to get the raw materials and equipment they need on time, as project times lengthen, costs spiral, stock-out continues to plague plans to a decarbonized energy future. The risks reflect the impact of uncertainty and volatility on the resilience of the supply chains. Therefore, there is a need for the enhancement of the production planning in Energy Supply Chains (ESCs), as it enables affordable energy supplies and supports the companies transition to a clean, secure and sustainable energy mix. This study aims to understand the interactive behavior among individuals and optimize their production planning under uncertainty scenarios. In particular, we propose a novel framework to couple an Agent-based Modelling (ABM) and a Co-evolutionary Algorithm (CEA), to realize its capacity to solve a Many-objective Optimization Problem (MaOP) where the profits of multiple agents are concurrently maximized in their interactive transaction processes under normal conditions and uncertain disruption events.

For demonstration, we illustrate the proposed approach by considering a five-layer oil and gas ESC model, where uncertainties from multiple sources and the structural dynamics challenge the balance between supply and demand. The results obtained by an integration of a Cooperative Co-evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimizer (CCPSO) algorithm into ABM show the pricing and orders of the target agents are optimized while the loss of ESC resilience is minimized under uncertainty scenarios, proving its capacity of improving the diversity and the convergence, compared to the classic evolutionary algorithms.