Seeking a better path for the circular economy of solar panels: Global sensitivity analysis focused on socioeconomic and physical factors

IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Sustainable Production and Consumption Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI:10.1016/j.spc.2024.08.027
Ken Matsuoka , Yusuke Fujii , Nobuaki Shinojima , Tatsuya Kojima , Ryu Koide , Shinsuke Murakami
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Abstract

As more solar photovoltaic panels are expected to be introduced globally to promote the stabilization and decarbonization of electricity supply, concerns have been raised about the associated resource constraints and the environmental impacts. To promote circular economy initiatives, this study aims to provide insight into the variables and the conditions that play a key role in the expression of environmental impacts and find the better path for a circular economy of solar panels, which requires analyzing impacts on multiple indicators as a result of various factors and their cross-interactions. To achieve this goal, we constructed a resource circulation simulator that considers factors related to the business environment as well as physical factors. The simulation model was then applied to the largest administrative region in Japan, and the parameter space was explored by combining Regional Sensitivity Analysis, a global sensitivity analysis method, and Random Forest to consider the interactions among these variables. As a result of 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations performed on 26 input variables, it was found that the key parameters in final disposal and resource consumption potential differ between the two purposes; avoiding catastrophic loads and achieving ambitious reductions. In contrast, for greenhouse gas emissions, it is important to maintain or increase the efficiency of photovoltaic panel power generation for both purposes. Additionally, in the case where the key variables were optimized in terms of final disposal/resource consumption potential, it will effectively reduce the two impacts to 0.7 % and 12.6 %, respectively, with a minimal negative impact on greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, in the case when optimized in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, it has only a small impact on greenhouse gas emissions and large negative impacts on final disposal and resource consumption potential. Further refinement of the parameter space and thresholds in the analysis is a topic for future research.

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为太阳能电池板的循环经济寻求更好的途径:以社会经济和物理因素为重点的全球敏感性分析
为促进电力供应的稳定化和去碳化,预计全球将采用更多的太阳能光伏板,与此同时,相关的资源限制和环境影响也引起了人们的关注。为了推动循环经济倡议,本研究旨在深入了解对环境影响的表现起关键作用的变量和条件,并找到太阳能电池板循环经济的更好路径,这需要分析各种因素及其交叉相互作用对多个指标的影响。为了实现这一目标,我们构建了一个资源循环模拟器,考虑了与商业环境相关的因素以及物理因素。然后将该模拟模型应用于日本最大的行政区域,并通过结合区域敏感性分析、全局敏感性分析方法和随机森林来探索参数空间,以考虑这些变量之间的相互作用。对 26 个输入变量进行了 30,000 次蒙特卡罗模拟,结果发现,最终处置和资源消耗潜力的关键参数在避免灾难性负荷和实现大幅减排这两个目的之间存在差异。相比之下,在温室气体排放方面,维持或提高光伏板发电效率对这两种目的都很重要。此外,如果从最终处置/资源消耗潜力的角度对关键变量进行优化,将有效地把这两种影响分别降低到 0.7% 和 12.6%,而对温室气体排放的负面影响则微乎其微。相反,如果从温室气体排放的角度进行优化,则对温室气体排放的影响很小,而对最终处置和资源消耗潜力的负面影响很大。进一步完善分析中的参数空间和阈值是今后的研究课题。
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来源期刊
Sustainable Production and Consumption
Sustainable Production and Consumption Environmental Science-Environmental Engineering
CiteScore
17.40
自引率
7.40%
发文量
389
审稿时长
13 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable production and consumption refers to the production and utilization of goods and services in a way that benefits society, is economically viable, and has minimal environmental impact throughout its entire lifespan. Our journal is dedicated to publishing top-notch interdisciplinary research and practical studies in this emerging field. We take a distinctive approach by examining the interplay between technology, consumption patterns, and policy to identify sustainable solutions for both production and consumption systems.
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