Evaluations of storm tide hazard along the coast of China using synthetic dynamic tropical cyclone events

Abstract

Concurring with high astronomical tides, storm surges have caused devastating damage in low-lying areas along the Chinese coastal regions. However, accurately calculating tropical cyclone (TC) storm tide hazards, especially those with long return periods, has proven challenging due to limited temporal and spatial information on TCs. In this study, we adopt the Synthetic Dynamic TC Method (SDTM), which enables a more robust estimation of storm tide hazards by generating a large number of synthetic TCs based on historical best track data and ocean-atmosphere environmental data. Within the SDTM framework, synthetic TCs corresponding to 10,000 years are validated using several statistical metrics, and the associated storm tides are simulated. For comparison, we employ the Historical Storm Method (HSM) to simulate storm tides for historical TCs from 1950 to 2019. Storm tide hazard curves are calculated and compared using these two methods. Our results demonstrate that the SDTM can robustly estimate storm tide hazards for both short and long return periods, whereas the HSM performs well for short return periods but struggles to reliably assess storm tide hazards for long return periods. Notably, within the SDTM, storm tide height exhibits nonlinear growth with increasing return periods in the Gumbel plot, a phenomenon not observed in the HSM due to the limited time span of TC records. With sufficient TC data, the spatial storm tide hazard maps obtained from the SDTM can serve as a robust foundation for developing disaster prevention and mitigation policies.