"Dr. AI Will See You Now": How Do ChatGPT-4 Treatment Recommendations Align With Orthopaedic Clinical Practice Guidelines?

Abstract

Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) is engineered to emulate tasks that have historically required human interaction and intellect, including learning, pattern recognition, decision-making, and problem-solving. Although AI models like ChatGPT-4 have demonstrated satisfactory performance on medical licensing exams, suggesting a potential for supporting medical diagnostics and decision-making, no study of which we are aware has evaluated the ability of these tools to make treatment recommendations when given clinical vignettes and representative medical imaging of common orthopaedic conditions. As AI continues to advance, a thorough understanding of its strengths and limitations is necessary to inform safe and helpful integration into medical practice.

Questions/purposes: (1) What is the concordance between ChatGPT-4-generated treatment recommendations for common orthopaedic conditions with both the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) and an orthopaedic attending physician's treatment plan? (2) In what specific areas do the ChatGPT-4-generated treatment recommendations diverge from the AAOS CPGs?

Methods: Ten common orthopaedic conditions with associated AAOS CPGs were identified: carpal tunnel syndrome, distal radius fracture, glenohumeral joint osteoarthritis, rotator cuff injury, clavicle fracture, hip fracture, hip osteoarthritis, knee osteoarthritis, ACL injury, and acute Achilles rupture. For each condition, the medical records of 10 deidentified patients managed at our facility were used to construct clinical vignettes that each had an isolated, single diagnosis with adequate clarity. The vignettes also encompassed a range of diagnostic severity to evaluate more thoroughly adherence to the treatment guidelines outlined by the AAOS. These clinical vignettes were presented alongside representative radiographic imaging. The model was prompted to provide a single treatment plan recommendation. Each treatment plan was compared with established AAOS CPGs and to the treatment plan documented by the attending orthopaedic surgeon treating the specific patient. Vignettes where ChatGPT-4 recommendations diverged from CPGs were reviewed to identify patterns of error and summarized.

Results: ChatGPT-4 provided treatment recommendations in accordance with the AAOS CPGs in 90% (90 of 100) of clinical vignettes. Concordance between ChatGPT-generated plans and the plan recommended by the treating orthopaedic attending physician was 78% (78 of 100). One hundred percent (30 of 30) of ChatGPT-4 recommendations for fracture vignettes and hip and knee arthritis vignettes matched with CPG recommendations, whereas the model struggled most with recommendations for carpal tunnel syndrome (3 of 10 instances demonstrated discordance). ChatGPT-4 recommendations diverged from AAOS CPGs for three carpal tunnel syndrome vignettes; two ACL injury, rotator cuff injury, and glenohumeral joint osteoarthritis vignettes; as well as one acute Achilles rupture vignette. In these situations, ChatGPT-4 most often struggled to correctly interpret injury severity and progression, incorporate patient factors (such as lifestyle or comorbidities) into decision-making, and recognize a contraindication to surgery.

Conclusion: ChatGPT-4 can generate accurate treatment plans aligned with CPGs but can also make mistakes when it is required to integrate multiple patient factors into decision-making and understand disease severity and progression. Physicians must critically assess the full clinical picture when using AI tools to support their decision-making.

Clinical relevance: ChatGPT-4 may be used as an on-demand diagnostic companion, but patient-centered decision-making should continue to remain in the hands of the physician.