Vulnerability analysis of socio-ecological systems on small islands from the perspective of fisheries and tourism: A case study of Zhoushan Gouqi Island

Abstract

Small island social-ecological systems are increasingly vulnerable to the combined impacts of human activities and environmental changes, making focused vulnerability analyses critical for sustainable governance. In this study, Gouqi Island, a remote island, was selected as the research site to establish a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on the Vulnerability-Sensitivity-Danger (VSD) model. To account for potential interdependencies among indicators, a fuzzy integration method was employed to quantitatively assess vulnerability trends from 2016 to 2022. The analysis revealed that vulnerability reached its lowest point in 2018, peaked at 0.876 in 2020, and remained above 2016 levels through 2022, despite a slight decline. Additionally, machine learning techniques were used to identify key factors influencing vulnerability, highlighting indicators such as D24 (proportion of fisheries and tourism output), D41 (number of tourists), and D52 (aquaculture production) as particularly significant, though distinct from traditional sensitivity indicators. These findings inform the identification of critical factors affecting the island's sustainable development and lead to the proposal of adaptive governance strategies. The insights from this study provide valuable guidance for promoting sustainable development in similar remote islands.