{"title":"Runoff concentration decline for Tarim river due to a dramatic increasing of runoff in cold season and hydro-junction regulation: Past and future","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101962","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><p>The three headwaters of Tarim river, south of the Xinjiang Province, China.</p></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><p>Temporal runoff concentration variations are crucial for water resources utilization and management, particularly in arid regions. In this study, the runoff concentration in the Tarim River Basin is studied based on analysis of the trend, abrupt changes, and periodicity, identifying key extreme climate indices influencing the Gini-runoff coefficient and predicting its future changes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).</p></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><p>From 1962–2020, the Gini-runoff coefficient decreased by 8.3 %, while annual runoff increased by 14.2 %. This is attributed to temperature changes, escalating hydrological risk uncertainty. The anomaly of low geopotential high fields and Central Asian anticyclones have caused an increase in total cloud cover (TCC) and precipitation, and a decrease in the Daily Temperature Range (DTR). Increasing of Warm nights (TN90), Maximum Tmax (TXx), and Hot nights (TR) have enhanced the warm-season runoff. However, the climatic impact on warm-season runoff is less pronounced than that in the cold season, which led to the runoff concentration decline. Changes in hydro-junction regulation led to decrease of Gini-runoff coefficient by 12.11 % from 2001 to 2020 along the Hotan river. Under the three SSP scenarios, the average Gini-runoff coefficient for the Aksu and Hotan rivers are expected to decrease by 3.3 % and 2.6 %, respectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003112/pdfft?md5=6d8bd2b386b8d66bdf3473e18608a1a4&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581824003112-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003112","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Study region
The three headwaters of Tarim river, south of the Xinjiang Province, China.
Study focus
Temporal runoff concentration variations are crucial for water resources utilization and management, particularly in arid regions. In this study, the runoff concentration in the Tarim River Basin is studied based on analysis of the trend, abrupt changes, and periodicity, identifying key extreme climate indices influencing the Gini-runoff coefficient and predicting its future changes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
New hydrological insights for the region
From 1962–2020, the Gini-runoff coefficient decreased by 8.3 %, while annual runoff increased by 14.2 %. This is attributed to temperature changes, escalating hydrological risk uncertainty. The anomaly of low geopotential high fields and Central Asian anticyclones have caused an increase in total cloud cover (TCC) and precipitation, and a decrease in the Daily Temperature Range (DTR). Increasing of Warm nights (TN90), Maximum Tmax (TXx), and Hot nights (TR) have enhanced the warm-season runoff. However, the climatic impact on warm-season runoff is less pronounced than that in the cold season, which led to the runoff concentration decline. Changes in hydro-junction regulation led to decrease of Gini-runoff coefficient by 12.11 % from 2001 to 2020 along the Hotan river. Under the three SSP scenarios, the average Gini-runoff coefficient for the Aksu and Hotan rivers are expected to decrease by 3.3 % and 2.6 %, respectively.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.