Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献

Introducing the STOP-SaltWind framework enhanced by deep neural networks to investigate aerosol dispersion in Lake Urmia Basin 引入深度神经网络增强的stop - salwind框架，研究乌尔米亚湖流域的气溶胶扩散

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103127

Aylar Azizi , Amir Asadi Vaighan , Sina Sadeghfam , Rahman Khatibi

Study region

Aerosol dispersion is investigated in this study at the basin of Lake Urmia in Iran following its disappearance in 2023, a disaster triggered by mismanagement and the absence of effective planning.

Study focus

The study introduces the STOP-SaltWind framework composed of six consensually-selected data layers processed by a scoring system of rates and weights, including: Temperature, Precipitation, Salt (Normalised Difference Salinity Index) and Wind speed. Their information content is assessed through correlations; although the scores are subjective, their quality can be enhanced by methods similar to deep neural networks (DNN) using aerosol absorption index as a label dataset.

New hydrological insights

Basic framework results show that correlation in the data layers are non-random signal, achieving 41–60 % ‘overall accuracy’ in confusion matrix across three major salt-wind events (2021/2022/2023), and hence proof-of-concept for STOP-SaltWind. A supervised clustering DNN further enhanced overall accuracy to 80 % with consistently high Area Under Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. These findings confirm that the information content of the framework is significant and inherent subjectivity reducible by advanced techniques, making it applicable to similar study areas. The desiccated lakebed exposes the basin to chronic aerosol dispersion risks, particularly at five hotspots, impacting health, the environment, agriculture, flora and fauna. Basin-wide risk exposures can be reduced by effective planning and governance, including measures to restore inflows and cover the exposed saltpan.

研究区域本研究在伊朗乌尔米亚湖盆地进行了气溶胶扩散研究，该盆地于2023年消失，这是由于管理不善和缺乏有效规划而引发的灾难。研究重点该研究介绍了由六个共识选择的数据层组成的stop - salwind框架，这些数据层由一个比率和权重评分系统处理，包括：温度、降水、盐（标准化盐度指数）和风速。它们的信息内容通过相关性来评估；虽然分数是主观的，但它们的质量可以通过类似于使用气溶胶吸收指数作为标签数据集的深度神经网络（DNN）的方法来提高。新的水文见解基本框架结果表明，数据层中的相关性是非随机信号，在三个主要盐风事件（2021/2022/2023）的混淆矩阵中实现41-60 %的“总体精度”，因此证明了stop盐风的概念。监督聚类深度神经网络进一步提高了整体准确率至80 %，曲线下面积（AUC）值持续高，超过0.9。这些发现证实了该框架的信息内容是重要的，并且通过先进的技术可以减少固有的主观性，使其适用于类似的研究领域。干燥的湖床使盆地面临长期气溶胶扩散风险，特别是在五个热点地区，影响健康、环境、农业、动植物。通过有效的规划和治理，包括恢复流入和覆盖暴露盐田的措施，可以减少全流域的风险敞口。

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引用次数: 0

Thresholds of bank collapse in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River: A framework for early bank collapse warning using multi-source remote sensing 长江中下游岸塌阈值：多源遥感岸塌预警框架

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103189

Jing Deng , Kebing Chen , Zhiwei Li , Jing Yuan , Lingling Zhu

Study region

The Middle and Lower Yangtze River, China.

Study focus

This study integrates multi-source remote sensing data (Landsat and Google Earth) and field-measured topographic data to establish a quantitative framework for identifying bank collapse, which progresses from large-scale screening to localized analysis. Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), we automated the extraction of banklines from 2004 to 2024 and employed the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to quantify the erosion rate. After an initial large-scale screening, six high-risk river segments (e.g., Xiangjiazhou, Qigongling) were selected for detailed analysis, where five key bank collapse indicators were quantified: bank slope, toe erosion slope, Bank-Groove Elevation Difference, Main Stream Proximity Distance, and bankline change rate.

New hydrological insights for the region

Spatially varying thresholds were identified: bank slope (0.1–0.5), toe erosion slope (0.1–0.25), Bank-Groove Elevation Difference (>15 m), and Main Stream Proximity Distance (0.3–0.5 times the channel width). Following the implementation of systematic bank protection after 2015, erosion rates were reduced by 20–30 %. Unprotected banks, however, saw an acceleration in collapse rates. The channel incision induced by the Three Gorges Dam increased instability in unprotected areas, while protected segments showed stable morphodynamics. This study provides a quantitative analysis of bank collapse risk indicators for the Middle and Lower Yangtze River, offering scientific methods and evidence for intelligent bank collapse screening.

研究区域：长江中下游地区。本研究将多源遥感数据（Landsat和谷歌Earth）与实测地形数据相结合，建立岸塌定量识别框架，从大规模筛选到局部分析。利用谷歌Earth Engine （GEE）对2004 - 2024年的岸线进行了自动提取，并利用数字海岸线分析系统（DSAS）对侵蚀速率进行了量化。经过初步的大规模筛选，选取了6个高风险河段（如相家洲、气公岭）进行详细分析，量化了河岸坡度、坡脚侵蚀坡度、岸沟高差、干流接近距离、岸线变化率等5个关键塌岸指标。确定了区域空间变化阈值：岸坡（0.1-0.5）、坡脚侵蚀坡（0.1-0.25）、岸沟高差（>15 m）和主流接近距离（0.3-0.5倍河道宽度）。2015年后实施系统的护岸措施后，侵蚀率降低了20 - 30% %。然而，不受保护的银行的倒闭率却在加速上升。三峡大坝造成的河道切割增加了未受保护区域的不稳定性，而受保护区域则表现出稳定的形态动力学特征。本研究为长江中下游地区塌岸风险指标的定量分析提供了依据，为塌岸智能筛选提供了科学的方法和依据。

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引用次数: 0

Interpretable groundwater spring potential mapping in complex terrain of Liulin County, China, using SSA-XGBoost with GIS-based validation 基于SSA-XGBoost的柳林县复杂地形地下水泉势可解释填图及gis验证

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103197

Dekang Zhao , Fan Miao , Guorui Feng , Xiang Li , Jiaying Cai , Shuning Dong , Yujiang Zhang , Yongqi Chen , Ruoyu Niu , Ziqing Yang

Study region

Liulin County, located on the eastern bank of the Yellow River (YR) in Shanxi Province, China, is characterized by complex terrain including mountains and loess plateaus under a semi-arid climate.

Study focus

To mitigate seasonal water supply instability and identify reliable groundwater sources, this study proposes a novel machine-learning framework integrating the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) and field surveys, a comprehensive hydrogeological dataset was constructed. The Boruta Algorithm (BA) was employed to eliminate redundant variables, while Random Forest (RF) evaluated feature importance. The proposed model was rigorously benchmarked against five alternative methods, including hybrids optimized by the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied to decipher the "black-box" nature of the models, quantifying feature contributions and non-linear interactions.

New hydrological insights for the region

The results demonstrate that the SSA-XGBoost model achieved superior predictive accuracy, yielding a maximum Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.8812. Consensus from RF and SHAP analyses identified lithology and altitude as the dominant controlling factors, while the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and rainfall provided essential spatial variability. GIS-based zonation revealed that approximately 22.06 % of the study area possesses high groundwater potential. This framework effectively balances high predictive accuracy with transparency, providing a scientifically robust tool for sustainable groundwater management in complex terrain regions.

研究区山西省柳林县位于黄河东岸，属半干旱气候，地形复杂，包括山地和黄土高原。为了缓解季节性供水不稳定并确定可靠的地下水来源，本研究提出了一种新的机器学习框架，该框架将麻雀搜索算法（SSA）与极端梯度增强（XGBoost）相结合。利用地理信息系统（GIS）和野外调查，构建了一个综合性的水文地质数据集。采用Boruta算法（BA）消除冗余变量，随机森林（RF）评估特征重要性。提出的模型与五种替代方法进行了严格的基准测试，其中包括由灰狼优化器（GWO）优化的混合动力车。此外，应用SHapley加性解释（SHAP）来破译模型的“黑箱”性质，量化特征贡献和非线性相互作用。结果表明，SSA-XGBoost模型具有较高的预测精度，最大曲线下面积（AUC）为0.8812。RF和SHAP分析一致认为，岩性和海拔是主要的控制因素，而归一化植被指数（NDVI）和降雨量提供了基本的空间变异。基于gis的分区结果显示，研究区约22.06% %具有高地下水潜力。该框架有效地平衡了高预测精度和透明度，为复杂地形地区的可持续地下水管理提供了科学可靠的工具。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating water quality indices and multivariate statistics for groundwater assessment in a Mediterranean coastal aquifer, Northeast Algeria 阿尔及利亚东北部地中海沿岸含水层地下水评价的综合水质指标和多元统计

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103200

Faouzi Zahi , Abdelmalek Drouiche , Fethi Medjani , Azzeddine Reghais , Mohamed A.E. Abdel Rahman , Ilyes Mecibah , Antonio Scopa , Shao Bing Fong , Ahmed Refaee

Study region

The Wadi Djendjen alluvial plain, located within a Mediterranean coastal aquifer in northeastern Algeria.

Study focus

In April 2021, thirty-one groundwater samples were collected to assess the hydrogeochemical characteristics and overall quality of the aquifer. An integrated methodological approach was employed, combining multivariate statistical analyses (Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis), hydrochemical diagrams, and water quality indices. Electrical conductivity (EC) ranged from 325 to 1896 µS/cm, while total dissolved solids (TDS) ranged from 208 to 1213 mg/L, indicating slightly to moderately mineralized water. Two dominant hydrochemical facies were identified: Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-Cl⁻ and Ca²⁺-HCO₃⁻ (84 % and 16 % of samples, respectively), reflecting the combined effects of freshwater recharge and seawater intrusion. Principal Component Analysis revealed that groundwater chemistry is primarily controlled by geogenic processes (mineral dissolution, dedolomitization, and ion exchange) together with anthropogenic inputs from agricultural return flows and domestic effluents.

New hydrological insights

Drinking water quality assessment based on the water quality index (WQI) revealed pronounced spatial variability. Approximately 50 % of samples were classified as excellent to good quality (WQI ≤ 50), while the remaining samples ranged from poor to unsuitable for human consumption (50 < WQI < 100), with one sample (P8) deemed non-potable (WQI = 138). Similarly, the Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI) delineated three distinct irrigation suitability zones, including a high-restriction zone associated with industrial and port-related activities. These findings pinpoint critical zones of groundwater degradation and provide a robust scientific basis for targeted groundwater management strategies aimed at protecting public health and ensuring agricultural sustainability.

研究区域Wadi Djendjen冲积平原，位于阿尔及利亚东北部地中海沿岸含水层内。研究重点2021年4月，采集了31份地下水样本，评估了该含水层的水文地球化学特征和整体质量。采用多元统计分析（主成分分析和层次聚类分析）、水化学图和水质指标相结合的综合方法。电导率（EC）为325 ~ 1896µS/cm，总溶解固形物（TDS）为208 ~ 1213 mg/L，为轻度至中度矿化水。确定了两种主要的水化学相：Ca2 + -Mg2 + -Cl⁻和Ca2 + -HCO3⁻（分别占84 %和16 %），反映了淡水补给和海水入侵的联合作用。主成分分析表明，地下水化学主要受地质作用（矿物溶解、脱白云化和离子交换）以及农业回流和生活污水的人为输入控制。基于水质指数（WQI）的饮用水质量评价揭示了显著的空间变异性。大约50% %的样本被归类为优秀到良好的质量（WQI≤50），而剩余的样本范围从差到不适合人类消费（50% < WQI < 100），其中一个样本（P8）被认为不可饮用（WQI = 138）。同样，灌溉水质指数（IWQI）划定了三个不同的灌溉适宜区，包括一个与工业和港口相关活动相关的高限制区。这些发现指出了地下水退化的关键区域，并为旨在保护公众健康和确保农业可持续性的有针对性的地下水管理战略提供了强有力的科学基础。

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引用次数: 0

Research on the flood drainage rights allocation method incorporating the dynamic response of floods to climate change 考虑洪水对气候变化动态响应的洪水排洪权分配方法研究

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103186

Kaize Zhang , Leyi Zhang , Zengchuan Dong , Li Guo , Carlos R. Mello , Xiangyang Sun , Bihang Fan

Study region

Yiluo River Basin, China.

Study focus

Under the influence of climate change, China has seen an increase in flood frequency, resulting in substantial flood damage. However, current flood drainage rights (FDR) allocation methods are hindered by incomplete assessments of driving factors and methodological limitations.

To address these challenges, this study first adopts a resilience strategy as a guiding framework, incorporating the dynamic regional flood response to climate change as a key hydrological driver, and establishes a comprehensive qualitative indicator system. Second, a β-Variational Autoencoder (β-VAE) is introduced to address the high-dimensional, non-linear, and non-normal characteristics of FDR data. Subsequently, applying this model to the Yiluo River Basin using 2004–2023 data yields the following FDR allocation among five cities, aiming to develop a scientifically sound and efficient FDR allocation scheme.

New hydrological insights for the region

The results indicate that the FDR allocation ratios for the five cities in the Yiluo River Basin should be: Zhengzhou (29.60 %), Luoyang (23.67 %), Shangluo (16.31 %), Sanmenxia (15.61 %), and Weinan (14.81 %). Comparative analysis shows that the β-VAE model achieves faster data convergence and lower fluctuations, thereby improving the computational efficiency of the allocation scheme. Moreover, incorporating the dynamic regional flood response under climate change enhances the rationality and scientific rigor of the allocation scheme. This approach offers a viable pathway to support more effective flood management in China.

研究区域：中国漯河流域。受气候变化的影响，中国洪灾频发，洪灾灾害严重。然而，目前的排洪权分配方法受到驱动因素评估不完整和方法限制的阻碍。为应对这些挑战，本研究首先以韧性战略为指导框架，将区域洪水对气候变化的动态响应作为关键水文驱动因素，建立全面的定性指标体系。其次，引入β-变分自编码器（β-VAE）来解决FDR数据的高维、非线性和非正态特征。随后，利用2004-2023年数据将该模型应用于沂罗河流域，得到5个城市的FDR分配如下，旨在制定科学合理、高效的FDR分配方案。结果表明，宜罗江流域5个城市的FDR分配比例应为：郑州（29.60 %）、洛阳（23.67 %）、商洛（16.31 %）、三门峡（15.61 %）和渭南（14.81 %）。对比分析表明，β-VAE模型实现了更快的数据收敛和更低的波动，从而提高了分配方案的计算效率。考虑气候变化条件下的区域洪水动态响应，提高了分配方案的合理性和科学严谨性。这种方法为支持中国更有效的洪水管理提供了一条可行的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Diagnostic and prognostic modeling of glacier dynamics and the driving factors in the Qilian Mountains, China 祁连山冰川动态的诊断与预测模型及其驱动因子

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103183

Sheng Wang , Xingyu Wang , Yuzhe Wang , Tandong Yao , Jianchen Pu , Jinfeng Wang

Study region

Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountains, China.

Study focus

Glacier flow is one of the important processes in the glacier development and evolution. It provides a scientific basis for assessing glacial disaster risks, and is of great significance for formulating adaptive strategies in response to glacial environmental variations. In this study, a two-dimensional higher-order flow-band glacier flow model (PoLIM) was constructed to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of surface flow velocity on Qiyi Glacier, and the future dynamics and dominant influencing factors of flow velocity under various climate scenarios were investigated.

New hydrological insights for the region

Impacted by glacier (ice) volume and thickness, the annual variation in surface flow velocity of Qiyi Glacier exhibits a decreasing trend, declining from 16 m a⁻¹ in 1958–5.97 m a⁻¹ in 2021, with significantly higher flow velocity during the ablation season compared to the non-ablation season. The mean glacier surface flow velocity along the main flowline was 6.92 ± 0.13 m a⁻¹ from 2017 to 2021. Under three future scenarios, this velocity is projected to decrease to 0.71 ± 0.13 m a⁻¹, 0.73 ± 0.12 m a⁻¹ and 0.47 ± 0.09 m a⁻¹ by 2050, respectively. The spatio-temporal patterns of glacier flow velocity are primarily related to glacier scale (ice thickness) and its variation, with climate warming-induced basal sliding serving as a principal driver of velocity changes in certain part of the glacier.

祁连山七一冰川研究区冰川流动是冰川发育演化的重要过程之一。这为评估冰川灾害风险提供了科学依据，对制定应对冰川环境变化的适应策略具有重要意义。本文通过构建二维高阶流带冰川流动模型（PoLIM），分析了七一冰川地表流速的时空格局，探讨了不同气候情景下地表流速的未来动态及其主导影响因素。受冰川（冰）体积和厚度的影响，七宜冰川地表流速年际变化呈减小趋势，从1958年的16 m a−1下降至2021年的5.97 m a−1，消融期流速明显高于非消融期。2017 - 2021年冰川地表流速平均值为6.92 ± 0.13 m a−1。三个未来情景下,这个速度预计将下降到0.71 ±0.13  m−1, 0.73±0.12  m −1和0.47±0.09  m−1到2050年,分别。冰川流速的时空格局主要与冰川尺度（冰厚）及其变化有关，气候变暖引起的基底滑动是部分冰川流速变化的主要驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

Urban infrastructure recovery strategy under extreme precipitation based on multi-objective optimization algorithm 基于多目标优化算法的极端降水条件下城市基础设施恢复策略

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103175

Peng Wang , Xizhen Wu , Haowen Tan , Hongyu Zhi , Zhangli Chen , Lei Huang

Study region

Gulou district, Nanjing, China.

Study focus

Facing escalating extreme precipitation and urbanization, urban infrastructure resilience is critical. While previous recovery strategies often used optimization models, they largely overlooked the underlying mechanisms driving efficient recovery. This study addresses this gap by developing an optimal strategy for post-extreme precipitation infrastructure recovery. We establish a multi-objective optimization model and a novel recovery efficiency index to evaluate recovery combinations, specifically focusing on Gulou District. The analysis considers recovery objectives, infrastructure categories, and spatial distribution to identify efficient recovery methods.

New hydrological insights for the region

Findings reveal significant spatial and categorical disparities in recovery efficiency, emphasizing the need for context-specific strategies. Optimal recovery methods depend on the interplay between infrastructure type and their geographic clustering. Strategic prioritization of spatially interconnected infrastructure and category-specific recovery sequences can enhance overall efficiency by 15–20 %. These insights provide actionable guidance for policymakers to design resilient recovery plans under climate change pressures. Future refinements will incorporate dynamic interactions between adjacent infrastructure systems to further optimize recovery outcomes.

研究区域：中国南京市鼓楼区。面对日益加剧的极端降水和城市化，城市基础设施的韧性至关重要。虽然以前的采油策略通常使用优化模型，但它们在很大程度上忽略了驱动高效采油的潜在机制。本研究通过制定极端降水后基础设施恢复的最佳策略来解决这一差距。以鼓楼区为研究对象，建立了多目标优化模型和采收率评价指标。分析考虑了恢复目标、基础设施类别和空间分布，以确定有效的恢复方法。研究结果揭示了恢复效率的显著空间和类别差异，强调了因地制宜的策略的必要性。最优恢复方法取决于基础设施类型及其地理集群之间的相互作用。空间互联基础设施的战略优先级和特定类别的恢复顺序可以提高整体效率15 - 20% %。这些见解为决策者在气候变化压力下设计有弹性的恢复计划提供了可行的指导。未来的改进将包括相邻基础设施系统之间的动态交互，以进一步优化恢复结果。

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引用次数: 0

From reach to catchment-scale impacts: High-resolution hydrodynamic modelling of Nature-based solutions in the Cocker Catchment, UK 从河段到流域尺度的影响：英国Cocker流域基于自然的解决方案的高分辨率水动力学建模

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103178

Bartholomew Hill , Qiuhua Liang , Huili Chen , Lee Bosher

Study region

Cocker River catchment (145 km²), Lake District, Cumbria, United Kingdom.

Study focus

This study investigates the influence that Natural Flood Management (NFM) features have on flood behaviour at the catchment scale using a high-resolution, two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling approach. A high-performance computing framework, based on the High-Performance Integrated hydrodynamic Modelling System (HiPIMS), was applied to simulate two events; 1) pre-NFM implementation - Storm Desmond flood in 2015, and 2) post-NFM implementation – High rainfall event in 2021. Leaky wooden barriers and other NFM features were explicitly represented using UAV-derived digital terrain data at 2 m and 4 m spatial resolutions.

Hydrological insights

The simulations indicate that the hydrological response to NFM within the Cocker catchment is strongly event dependent. Clearer flow attenuation and hydrograph smoothing were observed during the smaller 2021 event, while impacts during the extreme 2015 event were modest and spatially variable. Localised water retention within the Whinlatter sub-catchment translated into small but measurable downstream changes in flood levels, alongside indications that delayed flows may interact with contributions from other tributaries. These findings highlight the importance of event magnitude, spatial configuration, and flow timing when assessing the role of NFM in catchment-scale flood risk management.

研究区域科克河集水区（145 平方公里），湖区，坎布里亚郡，英国。本研究利用高分辨率二维水动力学建模方法，研究了自然洪水管理（NFM）特征对流域尺度洪水行为的影响。采用基于高性能集成水动力建模系统（HiPIMS）的高性能计算框架对两个事件进行了模拟；1) nfm实施前——2015年的Desmond风暴洪水；2)nfm实施后——2021年的高降雨事件。利用无人机衍生的2 m和4 m空间分辨率的数字地形数据，明确表示了漏水的木制屏障和其他NFM特征。水文见解模拟表明，Cocker流域对NFM的水文响应强烈依赖于事件。在较小的2021年事件期间，观测到更明显的流量衰减和水文平滑，而在极端的2015年事件期间，影响不大，且存在空间差异。whinlater子集水区的局部蓄水转化为下游洪水水位的微小但可测量的变化，同时有迹象表明，延迟的流量可能与其他支流的贡献相互作用。这些发现强调了在评估NFM在流域洪水风险管理中的作用时，事件规模、空间配置和流量时间的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the three-cornered hat method for hourly satellite precipitation fusion in hydrological forecasting: A case study in a Tropical Andean Basin 评价三角帽方法在水文预报中的逐时卫星降水融合：以热带安第斯盆地为例

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103163

Patricio Luna Abril , Paul Muñoz , Esteban Samaniego , David F. Muñoz , María José Merizalde , Mario Lillo-Saavedra , Rolando Célleri

Study region

Jubones River Basin, a tropical mountainous basin in the Andes, Ecuador.

Study focus

Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) are essential for hydrological forecasting in data-scarce regions, yet their uncertainties increase at hourly timescales. This study evaluates the applicability of the Three-Cornered Hat (TCH) method for satellite-only precipitation fusion at hourly resolution and its hydrological value for machine learning–based runoff forecasting. TCH was applied to fuse IMERG, PERSIANN, and GSMaP precipitation estimates, and Random Forest runoff forecasts were developed for increasing lead times from 3 to 24 h. Results were benchmarked against a single-source SPP (IMERG-ER) and the multi-source MSWEP dataset, with particular emphasis on numerical issues arising during no-precipitation periods.

New hydrological insight

(1) Frequent dry periods induce strong statistical dependence among SPPs, leading to singular difference covariance matrices that disable the classical TCH formulation. (2) Introducing Tikhonov regularization permits consistent application of the method without altering precipitation magnitudes or temporal variability, enabling continuous satellite-only fusion. (3) Runoff forecasting skill is comparable across precipitation scenarios; MSWEP slightly outperforms others in NSE, KGE, and RMSE, while the TCH-based product consistently reduces bias. Overall, although regularized TCH is technically feasible for hourly precipitation fusion, its added value for operational runoff forecasting is limited under dry-hour-dominated conditions. These findings highlight both the potential and constraints of satellite-only fusion for near-real-time hydrological forecasting in data-scarce regions.

研究区域：jubones河流域，厄瓜多尔安第斯山脉的热带山地盆地。研究重点：卫星降水产品（SPPs）对数据稀缺地区的水文预报至关重要，但其不确定性在每小时时间尺度上增加。本研究评估了三角帽（TCH）方法在逐时分辨率的卫星降水融合中的适用性及其在基于机器学习的径流预测中的水文价值。TCH应用于融合IMERG、persann和GSMaP降水估计，并开发随机森林径流预测，将提前期从3增加到24 h。结果以单源SPP （imergp - er）和多源MSWEP数据集为基准，特别强调了无降水期间出现的数值问题。(1)频繁的干旱期导致spp之间的强统计依赖性，导致奇异差协方差矩阵使经典的TCH公式失效。(2)引入Tikhonov正则化允许在不改变降水强度或时间变率的情况下一致地应用该方法，从而实现连续的仅卫星融合。(3)径流预测技术在不同降水情景下具有可比性；MSWEP在NSE、KGE和RMSE方面的表现略优于其他产品，而基于技术的产品则始终如一地减少了偏差。总的来说，尽管正则化TCH在技术上对逐小时降水融合是可行的，但在干时为主的条件下，其对径流预报的附加价值有限。这些发现突出了在数据稀缺地区，仅用卫星融合进行近实时水文预报的潜力和限制。

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引用次数: 0

Investigating Fort Reno, Oklahoma, growing season temperature and precipitation maxima temporal variability and corresponding impacts to hydrological and agricultural observations 调查俄克拉何马州的Fort Reno，生长期温度和降水的最大时间变率及其对水文和农业观测的相应影响

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103177

Paul Xavier Flanagan

Study region

Central Oklahoma, USA

Study focus

Research shows that the timing of regional growing season maxima in daily temperature and precipitation is related to the sub-seasonal to seasonal variability of precipitation. However, it is uncertain if these results will translate to the local scale. The studies goal is to extend asynchronous difference index (ADI) research to the Fort Reno location within the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center. Numerous datasets were combined to investigate ADI and its impacts on meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural facets of the environment. Analysis shows that ADI impacts the environment similarly to regional results, namely that April to June precipitation is enhanced (reduced) for positive (negative) ADI growing seasons and July to October precipitation is reduced (enhanced). These regimes of precipitation variability impacted local hydrology and agricultural yields. Overall, this study shows that the regional aspects of ADI translate to the local scale, and that the regimes of ADI relate to distinct hydrologic and agricultural outcomes.

New hydrological insights for the region

This research shows that ADI relates to not only meteorological features of the environment, but also to local hydrological and agricultural conditions. Knowledge of ADI can potentially be used to infer the impact of heavy precipitation events later in the year and water requirements for future growing seasons.

研究表明，日气温和降水的区域生长季最大值的时间与降水的亚季节到季节变化有关。然而，尚不确定这些结果是否适用于当地规模。该研究的目标是将异步差异指数（ADI）研究扩展到美国农业部(USDA)-农业研究服务（ARS）俄克拉何马州和中原农业研究中心的Fort Reno地点。许多数据集被结合起来调查ADI及其对气象、水文和农业环境方面的影响。分析表明，ADI对环境的影响与区域结果相似，即ADI正（负）生长期4 ~ 6月降水增加（减少），7 ~ 10月降水减少（增加）。这些降水变率制度影响了当地的水文和农业产量。总的来说，这项研究表明，区域方面的ADI转化为地方尺度，ADI的制度与不同的水文和农业成果有关。该研究表明，ADI不仅与环境的气象特征有关，而且与当地的水文和农业条件有关。ADI的知识可以潜在地用于推断今年晚些时候强降水事件的影响和未来生长季节的需水量。

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