Robust future intensification of winter precipitation over the United States

IF 8.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00761-8
Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Ziming Chen, Gabriel J. Kooperman, Vishal Bobde
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Abstract

We investigate 21st-century hydroclimate changes over the United States (US) during winter and the sources of projection uncertainty under three emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) using CMIP6 models. Our study reveals a robust intensification of winter precipitation across the US, except in the Southern Great Plains, where changes are very small. By the end of the 21st century, winter precipitation is projected to increase by about 2–5% K−1 over most of the US. The frequency of very wet winters is also expected to increase, with 6–7 out of 30 winters exceeding the very wet threshold under the different scenarios. Our results suggest that the enhancement of future winter precipitation is modulated largely by coupled dynamic and thermodynamic responses, though partly offset by thermodynamic responses. Overall, our results highlight a high likelihood of increasing impacts from winter precipitation due to climate change.

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未来美国冬季降水的强劲加强
我们利用 CMIP6 模型研究了 21 世纪美国冬季水文气候的变化以及三种排放情景(SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5)下预测不确定性的来源。我们的研究显示,除南部大平原变化很小外,整个美国的冬季降水都在强劲加强。预计到 21 世纪末,美国大部分地区的冬季降水量将增加约 2-5% K-1。极湿冬季的频率预计也会增加,在不同的情景下,30 个冬季中有 6-7 个会超过极湿临界值。我们的研究结果表明,未来冬季降水量的增加在很大程度上受动态和热力学耦合响应的调节,但部分被热力学响应所抵消。总之,我们的结果突出表明,气候变化极有可能加剧冬季降水的影响。
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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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