The role of electrification and the power sector in U.S. carbon neutrality

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100155
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Abstract

The United States has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We examine a series of net-zero CO2 scenarios to investigate the impact of advanced electrification of end-use sectors on the dynamics of America's net-zero transition through 2050. Specifically, we use an integrated assessment model, GCAM-USA, to explore how advanced electrification can influence the evolution of the electricity system in pursuit of net-zero. State-level resolution for end-use demand sectors and energy transformation is a key feature of GCAM-USA that allows for elucidation of the variation in end-use electrification across states. All scenarios in this study are designed to be consistent with the modeling protocol for the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 model inter-comparison project. Our scenarios show the scale of transformation in the power sector with average annual capacity additions reaching 121-143 GW/year and 172-190 GW/year in 2050 net-zero CO2 scenarios and 2045 net-zero CO2 scenarios, respectively, in the 2040s — approximately three to five times the 2021-2023 average. In 2050 net-zero CO2 scenarios, electrification rates in 2050 range from 15-48 % for transportation, 65-83 % for buildings, and 20-38 % for industry. If net-zero CO2 is achieved in 2045, transportation, buildings, and industry are 27-53 %, 78-84 %, and 41-53 % electrified by 2050, respectively. Advanced electrification of end-use sectors can reduce the magnitude of reliance on negative emissions by driving down residual positive emissions by mid-century. Altogether, our results demonstrate that a net-zero transition in the United States will require deep and rapid structural changes to the energy system.

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电气化和电力部门在美国碳中和中的作用
美国已承诺到 2050 年实现温室气体净零排放。我们研究了一系列二氧化碳净零排放情景,以探讨最终使用部门的先进电气化对美国到 2050 年实现净零排放的动态影响。具体来说,我们使用综合评估模型 GCAM-USA 来探索先进电气化如何影响电力系统在实现净零排放过程中的演变。GCAM-USA 的一个主要特点是在州一级对终端需求部门和能源转型进行解析,从而阐明各州在终端电气化方面的差异。本研究中的所有情景都符合能源建模论坛研究 37 模型相互比较项目的建模协议。我们的情景方案显示了电力行业的转型规模,在 2050 年二氧化碳净排放为零的情景方案和 2045 年二氧化碳净排放为零的情景方案中,2040 年代的年均新增发电能力分别达到 1.21-1.43 亿千瓦/年和 1.72-1.90 亿千瓦/年,约为 2021-2023 年平均水平的三到五倍。在 2050 年二氧化碳净零排放情景下,2050 年交通电气化率为 15-48%,建筑电气化率为 65-83%,工业电气化率为 20-38%。如果在 2045 年实现二氧化碳净零排放,到 2050 年,交通、建筑和工业的电气化率分别为 27-53%、78-84% 和 41-53%。到本世纪中叶,终端使用部门的先进电气化可降低剩余正排放量,从而减少对负排放量的依赖程度。总之,我们的研究结果表明,美国的净零排放转型需要对能源系统进行深入而快速的结构性变革。
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来源期刊
Energy and climate change
Energy and climate change Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
7.90
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0.00%
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0
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