Application of machine learning and fuzzy AHP for identification of suitable groundwater potential zones using field based hydrogeophysical and soil hydraulic factors in a complex hydrogeological terrain

Abstract

The eastern section of West Bengal grapples with limited surface water availability in its hard rock terrain, compounded by a semi-arid climate, variable rainfall, and a plateau topography, prompting communities to adapt groundwater water-use practices, leading to unsustainable extraction and misuse. Thus, the novel objective of the present research was to produce groundwater potential maps by comparing machine learning techniques with a Fuzzy MCDM model using specific field-based conditioning factors. In the first step, 285 wells were identified, of which 70 percent were used for training and 30 percent for the validation of the models. Secondly, field-based conditioning factors including, longitudinal conductance (SC), longitudinal resistance (ρl), transverse resistance (TR), coefficient of electrical anisotropy (λ), resistivity of formation (ρm), fracture porosity (φf), reflection coefficients (r), hydraulic conductivity (K), transmissivity(Tr), bulk density, porosity, permeability, soil moisture content and water holding capacity were used to analyze the association between these conditioning factors and groundwater occurrences. In the following steps, the XGBoost, Random Forest, and Naïve Bayes models were executed using the training dataset, and factor weights were calculated using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process of Extent analysis method. To validate and compare the performance of four models, ROC curves, AUCs, MCAs, and correlation plots were used. In general, all four models were successful in evaluating the potential of groundwater occurrences. The predictive capability of the XGBoost techniques with the highest AUC values (0.79) and the highest correlation value (0.78) is superior to those of other machine learning and MCDM models. Geophysical survey revealed that transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer of the river basin range from 1.55 to 440.11 m/day and 10.15–2253 m²/day, indicating a moderate to good hydrodynamic potential. Planners and engineers can use such groundwater potential maps to manage water resources effectively.