How China can promote the outer circular economy under policy uncertainty

Abstract

This paper utilizes the trade gravity model under the “double-cycle” pattern and selects the trade and export panel data of China in general and 31 provinces and cities located on mainland China specifically to the U.S. from 2008 to 2022 to analyze not only the reasons for the emergence of trade friction shocks between China and the U.S. but also the effects of trade friction shocks on trade between China and the U.S. and the characteristics of each market's export potential. The results of the study reveal that the volume of China's secondary industry GDP and the U.S. economic freedom index play a positive role in promoting China‒U.S. trade, while the volume of the U.S. GDP, the U.S. population, the trade distance between China and the U.S., and the number of U.S.‒China trade barrier notifications impede China‒U.S. trade. Furthermore, on the basis of the measurement of the trade potential equation, the provinces and municipalities of China's mainland are classified into the U.S. trade and export markets, and ways and means are sought to improve the potential of China's trade and exports with the U.S. Moreover, on the basis of the trade potential equation, China in general and the mainland provinces and cities specifically are divided into export markets to the U.S. to find ways to increase China's trade and export potential to the U.S. and promote China's “outward circulation” economy.