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The fittest survive: Regional resilience and exposure to financial crisis 适者生存:地区复原力和金融危机风险
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103652
We investigate the nexus between a deep fundamental (individual resilience) and exposure to the financial crisis using cross-country individual evidence from the European Social Survey on more than 25,000 individuals (in 19 countries and 64 regions) from 2006 to 2012. We find that average regional resilience is associated with a significantly lower exposure to income falls for households, and financial difficulties for the organizations where the survey respondent works. We also observe that household exposure to income falls is associated with a significant fall in resilience. If these two pieces of evidence hide causality links they imply that financial shocks enhance regional differences since lower ex-ante resilience increases household and corporate exposure to financial shocks which, in turn, weaken their resilience. As a consequence, financial shocks can widen differences in exposure to financial difficulties and resilience between stronger and weaker regions.
我们利用欧洲社会调查(European Social Survey)提供的跨国个人证据,研究了深层次的基本要素(个人复原力)与金融危机风险之间的关系。我们发现,地区平均抗灾能力与家庭收入下降风险和调查对象所在组织的财务困难风险显著降低相关。我们还发现,家庭面临收入下降的风险与复原力的显著下降有关。如果这两个证据隐藏着因果关系,那么它们就意味着金融冲击加剧了地区差异,因为较低的事前抵御能力增加了家庭和企业面临金融冲击的风险,而这反过来又削弱了他们的抵御能力。因此,金融冲击会扩大强势地区和弱势地区在面临金融困难和抵御能力方面的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional investor cross-ownership networks and green innovation: Evidence from China 机构投资者交叉所有权网络与绿色创新:来自中国的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103657
This paper examines the effect of network centrality, a measure of the extent and strength of a firm's connections formed by institutional investor cross-ownership (IICO), on corporate green innovation. Using a sample of Chinese-listed firms between 2003 and 2019, we demonstrate that corporate green innovation is positively correlated with the network centrality of IICO. This finding is more pronounced for firms that have low R&D investment and for non-state-owned firms than for other firms. Regarding the influence mechanisms, we find that network centrality promotes green innovation by enabling information transmission, alleviating managers' career concerns, and enhancing external monitoring. Further analyses suggest that network centrality affects both the quantity and the quality of corporate green innovation. Our paper provides insight into how to promote green innovation and accelerate the transformation of firms toward sustainable practices.
本文研究了机构投资者交叉持股(IICO)所形成的企业联系的范围和强度所衡量的网络中心性对企业绿色创新的影响。我们以 2003 年至 2019 年间的中国上市公司为样本,证明了企业绿色创新与 IICO 的网络中心性呈正相关。与其他企业相比,这一结论在研发投入较低的企业和非国有企业中更为明显。在影响机制方面,我们发现网络中心性通过促进信息传递、减轻管理者的职业担忧和加强外部监督来推动绿色创新。进一步的分析表明,网络中心性会影响企业绿色创新的数量和质量。我们的论文为如何促进绿色创新和加快企业向可持续实践转型提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Parameter instabilities and monetary policy in a small open economy: Evidence from an estimated model for the UK 小型开放经济体中的参数不稳定性和货币政策:来自英国估计模型的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103625

This paper reconsiders whether monetary policy in small open economies responds to exchange rates by studying possible parameter instabilities in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. The main focus of the paper is to revisit preceding evidence on the response to exchange rate movements by the Bank of England and determine if its reaction function has remained constant throughout the sample. To this end, I estimate a small open economy general equilibrium model using Bayesian econometric techniques over rolling windows. I find overwhelming evidence of shifts in several parameters, including those related to the policy rule. Furthermore, posterior odds tests reveal a time-varying response to exchange-rate fluctuations by the monetary authorities. The results favor the model with the nominal exchange rate embedded in the policy rule for the initial subsamples. However, the evidence steadily evolves across windows and ultimately changes to prefer the model specification with no exchange rate. The paper also documents evident variations in the model dynamics derived from the instability of parameters via rolling-window impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis.

本文通过研究动态随机一般均衡模型中可能存在的参数不稳定性,重新探讨了小型开放经济体的货币政策是否会对汇率做出反应。本文的主要重点是重新审视之前有关英格兰银行对汇率变动的反应的证据,并确定其反应函数是否在整个样本期间保持不变。为此,我使用贝叶斯计量经济学技术对一个小型开放经济一般均衡模型进行了滚动窗口估计。我发现大量证据表明几个参数发生了变化,包括与政策规则相关的参数。此外,后验概率检验还揭示了货币当局对汇率波动的时变反应。在最初的子样本中,结果有利于将名义汇率嵌入政策规则的模型。然而,证据在各个窗口中不断变化,最终倾向于无汇率的模型规格。本文还通过滚动窗口脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,从参数的不稳定性中记录了模型动态的明显变化。
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引用次数: 0
How does venture capital play a role in corporate green innovation? Evidence from China 风险投资如何在企业绿色创新中发挥作用?来自中国的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103654
This research underscores the critical role of green innovation in advancing corporate sustainability and green transformation. Analyzing 9048 panel data points from China between 2010 and 2021, we applied a series of fixed effect models to assess how venture capital (VC) influences corporate green innovation. The study examined the effect of VC on two key business aspects: the costs of debt financing and the propensity for corporate risk-taking. The findings confirm that venture capital is essential in promoting corporate green innovation by lowering debt-related financial burdens and diminishing firms' inclination to take risks. Additionally, our heterogeneity analysis indicates that venture capital's impact is more pronounced within eastern China and among state-owned enterprises, suggesting regional and ownership-based variations in green innovation dynamics.
这项研究强调了绿色创新在推动企业可持续发展和绿色转型中的关键作用。通过分析中国 2010 年至 2021 年间的 9048 个面板数据点,我们采用了一系列固定效应模型来评估风险投资(VC)如何影响企业的绿色创新。研究考察了风险投资对两个关键业务方面的影响:债务融资成本和企业承担风险的倾向。研究结果证实,风险投资可以降低与债务相关的财务负担,削弱企业承担风险的倾向,对促进企业绿色创新至关重要。此外,我们的异质性分析表明,在中国东部地区和国有企业中,风险投资的影响更为明显,这表明绿色创新动态存在地区和所有制差异。
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引用次数: 0
Only strong short-term contrarian effect exists in Chinese stock market: The role of the T+1 trading mechanism 中国股市只存在强烈的短期逆向效应:T+1交易机制的作用
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103653
We use an alternative sorting method which groups stocks into return intervals rather than percentiles to test the relationship between the T+1 trading mechanism and the short-term contrarian effect in the China's A-share market. Our sample period is from January 2010 to December 2020. China's stock market exhibits a significant contrarian effect in daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies, while the momentum effect is not significant. This paper argues that the special T+1 trading mechanism of China's stock market is the reason for this typical anomaly. The essence of the T+1 trading mechanism is a marketability put option, and this paper takes the volatility as the core of the analysis. This study shows that stock market volatility has a significant impact on the overnight return, with higher volatility leading to a higher discount. Through different daily, weekly, and monthly frequency groupings, the study finds that the winner's portfolio would reverse significantly in the next period. Under the T+1 mechanism, the high return stock portfolio is also characterized by high volatility and high turnover. The contrarian effect of China's stock market is unique in that both the winner's portfolio and the loser's portfolio will fall, but the winner's portfolio will fall more. The reversal of the winner's portfolio dominates in the entire market. The paper provides a new explanation for the contrarian effect and adds a unique explanation to the study of worldwide contrarian effect.
我们采用另一种排序方法,将股票按收益率区间而非百分位数进行分组,以检验中国 A 股市场 T+1 交易机制与短期逆向效应之间的关系。我们的样本期为 2010 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月。中国股市在日频、周频和月频上都表现出显著的逆向效应,而动量效应并不显著。本文认为,中国股市特殊的 T+1 交易机制是造成这一典型异常现象的原因。T+1 交易机制的本质是市场化看跌期权,本文以波动率为分析核心。本研究表明,股市波动率对隔夜收益率有显著影响,波动率越高,折价率越高。通过不同的日频、周频和月频分组,研究发现赢家的投资组合会在下一期出现明显反转。在 T+1 机制下,高回报股票组合还具有高波动性和高换手率的特点。中国股市逆向效应的独特之处在于,赢家组合和输家组合都会下跌,但赢家组合的跌幅更大。赢家组合的逆转在整个市场中占主导地位。本文为逆向效应提供了新的解释,为世界范围内的逆向效应研究增添了独特的解释。
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引用次数: 0
International operations and international influences – Investing in UK firms 国际业务和国际影响 - 投资英国公司
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103644

We provide an alternative perspective on the benefits of investing in Multinational Companies (MNCs) using a unique hand-collected dataset on the location of UK firm's sales and subsidiaries from 1998 to 2015. We find that investors can gain diversification benefits from investing in MNCs, but not necessarily firms with the greatest global reach. We also show that firm's returns tend not to be influenced by the geographical regions where they report sales and subsidiaries. The results suggest a new category of firms that may be beneficial for diversification - firms that are significantly influenced by the stock markets of a geographical region but do not report sales or subsidiaries in that region. This implies that investors should analyse the geographical regions that influence firm returns rather than the location of their sales and subsidiaries. Intuitively, these should be the same, but our results show a difference between the geographical location of a firm's sales and subsidiaries, and the regions that influence the firm returns. We recommend that investors look beyond the location of MNC activities and investigate the geographical regions that influence firms' returns when creating portfolios.

我们利用手工收集的 1998 年至 2015 年英国公司销售和子公司所在地的独特数据集,从另一个角度探讨了投资跨国公司的益处。我们发现,投资者可以从投资跨国公司中获得多样化收益,但不一定是全球影响力最大的公司。我们还发现,公司的回报往往不受其销售和子公司所在地理区域的影响。结果表明,有一类新的公司可能有利于分散投资,即受某一地区股市影响较大,但不在该地区报告销售或子公司的公司。这意味着投资者应分析影响公司回报的地理区域,而不是其销售和子公司所在地。从直觉上讲,这两者应该是相同的,但我们的结果表明,公司销售和子公司的地理位置与影响公司回报的地区之间存在差异。我们建议投资者在建立投资组合时,除了关注跨国公司活动的地点外,还应调查影响公司回报的地理区域。
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引用次数: 0
Global banking systems, financial stability, and uncertainty: How have countries coped with geopolitical risks? 全球银行体系、金融稳定和不确定性:各国如何应对地缘政治风险?
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103647
The study provides global evidence on the effects of news-based geopolitical risk (GPR), events, and associated risks on the financial stability of banking systems. With extensive large panel data from 179 economies over the past decades, we document strong adverse effects of GPR on financial stability with the predicted decrease (increase) in the bank (non-performing loans) Z-score. Commercial banking systems are heterogeneously exposed to GPR. Possible mechanisms to mitigate the effects of GPR include multidimensional financial development, enhanced world governance, and public finance. Our findings are robust with a battery of econometric approaches controlling for time-varying macroeconomic factors and banking characteristics (e.g., capitalization, concentration, performance) across countries and regions. The impacts of GPR on global financial stability are persistent when we control for systematic banking crises, economic policy, world uncertainty, and global uncertainty spillovers. While higher capitalized banks could secure ample financial stability with substantial military expenditure, the Asia Pacific and emerging economies are sensitive to widespread GPR. The study highlights the roles of institutional quality and world governance factors through times of uncertainty. In The context of global risks, greater global and comprehensive collaborations with mitigated GPR threats are inevitable for our inclusive growth toward Sustainable Development Goals. Our findings are critical to policymakers, advisers, and economists for our global financial stability and sustainable development.
本研究提供了基于新闻的地缘政治风险(GPR)、事件和相关风险对银行系统金融稳定性影响的全球证据。利用过去几十年中来自 179 个经济体的大量大型面板数据,我们记录了地缘政治风险对金融稳定性的强烈不利影响,并预测了银行(不良贷款)Z 值的下降(上升)。商业银行体系受 GPR 的影响程度不同。减轻 GPR 影响的可能机制包括多维金融发展、加强世界治理和公共财政。我们采用了一系列计量经济学方法来控制各国和各地区随时间变化的宏观经济因素和银行业特征(如资本化、集中度、业绩),结果是稳健的。当我们对系统性银行危机、经济政策、世界不确定性和全球不确定性溢出效应进行控制时,GPR 对全球金融稳定性的影响是持续的。虽然资本化程度较高的银行可以通过大量军费开支来确保充足的金融稳定,但亚太地区和新兴经济体对普遍的全球风险准备金非常敏感。研究强调了制度质量和世界治理因素在不确定时期的作用。在全球风险的背景下,为了实现可持续发展目标的包容性增长,我们必须加强全球全面合作,减轻全球风险警示的威胁。我们的研究结果对政策制定者、顾问和经济学家来说至关重要,有助于我们实现全球金融稳定和可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Public service equalization, digital financial inclusion and the rural revitalization: Evidence from Chinese 283 prefecture-level cities 公共服务均等化、数字普惠金融与乡村振兴:来自中国 283 个地级市的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103648
While China has made significant strides in poverty alleviation, the persistent urban-rural divide poses challenges for sustainable development. Previous studies have explored various factors influencing rural revitalization, yet the interplay between public service equalization, digital financial inclusion, and rural development remains understudied. This resfundearch investigates how public service equalization impacts rural revitalization in China and examines the moderating role of digital financial inclusion. Using panel data from 283 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2021, we employ a fixed-effects model and conduct robustness checks including endogeneity tests and alternative specifications. Our findings reveal that public service equalization positively influences rural revitalization, with both accessibility and beneficiality dimensions playing crucial roles. Importantly, digital financial inclusion enhances this positive impact, suggesting a synergistic effect. These results underscore the need for a holistic approach integrating public service provision and digital financial services to promote inclusive growth in rural China. By elucidating the mechanisms through which these factors interact, our study contributes to the broader literature on rural development and offers policymakers valuable insights for designing effective rural revitalization strategies.
虽然中国在扶贫方面取得了长足进步,但持续存在的城乡差距给可持续发展带来了挑战。以往的研究探讨了影响乡村振兴的各种因素,但对公共服务均等化、数字普惠金融和乡村发展之间的相互作用研究仍然不足。本研究探讨了公共服务均等化如何影响中国的乡村振兴,并考察了数字普惠金融的调节作用。利用 2011 年至 2021 年 283 个地级市的面板数据,我们采用固定效应模型,并进行了稳健性检验,包括内生性检验和替代规格。我们的研究结果表明,公共服务均等化对乡村振兴有积极影响,可及性和受益性两个维度都发挥了关键作用。重要的是,数字金融包容性增强了这种积极影响,表明存在协同效应。这些结果突出表明,有必要采取一种整合公共服务供给和数字金融服务的整体方法来促进中国农村的包容性增长。通过阐明这些因素的相互作用机制,我们的研究为更广泛的农村发展文献做出了贡献,并为政策制定者设计有效的乡村振兴战略提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Media attention, negative reports and textual information of banks’ ESG disclosure 银行披露环境、社会和公司治理信息的媒体关注度、负面报道和文本信息
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103583
This paper applies text analysis method and Baidu sentiment tendency analysis model to identify the text characteristics of bank ESG information disclosure, and explores the impact of media attention and negative reports on the text of bank ESG as well as the influence mechanism. The study finds that the higher the media attention, the stronger the positive sentiment of bank ESG information disclosure text, and the lower the readability. Similarly, negative media coverage is positively related to the sentiment of bank ESG text, and negatively related to the readability of the text. Mechanism analysis shows that media attention and negative reports can inhibit banks' active risk-taking, increase analysts' attention to banks as well, and then affect banks' ESG disclosure behavior. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of media attention and negative reports on ESG disclosure text is more obvious for banks with higher capital adequacy ratio and lower weighted risk assets ratio. This paper examines the impact of media governance on bank ESG disclosure behavior from the perspective of text big data analysis, which is a useful supplement to the research on ESG disclosure.
本文运用文本分析方法和百度情感倾向分析模型,识别银行ESG信息披露文本特征,探讨媒体关注度和负面报道对银行ESG文本的影响及影响机制。研究发现,媒体关注度越高,银行ESG信息披露文本的正面情绪越强,可读性越低。同样,媒体负面报道与银行ESG信息披露文本的情感正相关,与文本的可读性负相关。机制分析表明,媒体关注和负面报道会抑制银行的主动风险承担,同时增加分析师对银行的关注,进而影响银行的ESG信息披露行为。异质性分析表明,对于资本充足率较高、加权风险资产比率较低的银行,媒体关注和负面报道对ESG披露文本的影响更为明显。本文从文本大数据分析的角度研究媒体治理对银行ESG信息披露行为的影响,是对ESG信息披露研究的有益补充。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of artificial intelligence on green innovation efficiency: Moderating role of dynamic capability 人工智能对绿色创新效率的影响:动态能力的调节作用
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103649
Environmental concerns have intensified the focus on sustainable innovation, with artificial intelligence (AI) emerging as a potential driver. However, the relationship between AI adoption and green innovation efficiency, particularly in emerging economies, remains unclear. This gap is crucial to address as it could reveal pathways to enhance sustainable development in rapidly growing markets. Here, we investigate how AI impacts green innovation efficiency in Chinese firms and examine the moderating effects of dynamic capabilities. Using panel data from 26,117 firm-year observations of Chinese A-share listed companies (2008–2022), we employ a novel text-based measure of AI adoption and assess green innovation efficiency through patent applications and R&D expenditure. Our findings reveal a significant positive relationship between AI adoption and green innovation efficiency, with dynamic capabilities enhancing this effect. The impact is stronger in non-state-owned and high-tech firms. These results demonstrate AI's potential as a catalyst for sustainable development and highlight the importance of organizational capabilities in realizing these benefits. Our study contributes to the evolving discourse on technology-driven sustainability, providing insights for both theory and practice in leveraging AI for green innovation in diverse economic contexts.
对环境问题的关注加强了对可持续创新的重视,而人工智能(AI)正成为一种潜在的驱动力。然而,人工智能的采用与绿色创新效率之间的关系,尤其是在新兴经济体,仍不明确。解决这一空白至关重要,因为它可以揭示在快速增长的市场中加强可持续发展的途径。在此,我们研究了人工智能如何影响中国企业的绿色创新效率,并考察了动态能力的调节作用。我们使用中国 A 股上市公司 26117 个公司年观测值(2008-2022 年)的面板数据,采用了一种新颖的基于文本的人工智能采用度量方法,并通过专利申请和研发支出来评估绿色创新效率。我们的研究结果表明,采用人工智能与绿色创新效率之间存在显著的正相关关系,动态能力增强了这一效应。非国有企业和高科技企业受到的影响更大。这些结果证明了人工智能作为可持续发展催化剂的潜力,并强调了组织能力在实现这些效益方面的重要性。我们的研究为不断发展的技术驱动可持续发展的讨论做出了贡献,为在不同经济背景下利用人工智能进行绿色创新的理论和实践提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
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