Application of a high-performance grey prediction model to predict the cardiovascular disease mortality in elderly Chinese residents

Abstract

With the acceleration of urbanization and aging process, an increasing number of Chinese senior citizens are suffering from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Therefore, reducing the prevalence and mortality of CVD has become one of the priorities of the public health department. And the scientific prediction of CVD morality is of great significance in the prevention and treatment of CVD among the elderly. Given the characteristics of “small sample, complex causes and long duration” of CVD among the senior citizens, grey prediction models which aim at handling the data with “small sample, poor information” are more feasible in forecasting its developing trend. In this paper, a new discrete grey prediction model is designed to forecast the CVD morality among Chinese senior citizens, in which a non-linear function is introduced to expand the model structure and the order and background value coefficient are optimized. In all the three sets of experiments, the errors of the new model are close to but smaller than those of the other three mainstream grey prediction models, indicating that the simulation and prediction performance of the new model is more accurate and stable. The research provides a new modelling approach to predicting the CVD mortality among Chinese senior citizens, which is conducive to the prevention of CVD prevalence and the sustainable development of public health.