Evaluation of the PM2.5 concentrations in South America: Climatological patterns and trend analysis

Abstract

This study assessed the concentration of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 (PM_2.5) over South America (SA) based on climatological patterns and trend analysis. This study used monthly PM_2.5 data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts from 2003 to 2022. The bilinear interpolation method was applied to the data resampling from 0.75° × 0.75°–0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution, and subsequently, the climatological analysis was performed on seasonal and annual scales of PM_2.5 concentrations for the 20-year series. The assessment comprised three main stages: 1) descriptive statistics, 2) seasonal and annual climatology patterns, and 3) trend analysis (Mann-Kendall - MK and Pettitt tests). Results indicated that the largest annual PM_2.5 concentrations were found in the Amazon region and northern Paraguay due the El-Niño South Oscillation events (2003–2005, 2007, 2010, 2020, and 2022). The annual average PM_2.5 concentrations exceeded the WHO recommended limit (5 μg m⁻³), ranging from 15.57 μg m⁻³ (1999) and 22.74 μg m⁻³ (2007 and 2010). The highest PM_2.5 concentrations were observed in the Amazon and Chile (Santiago), reaching 160.4 μg m⁻³ annually and 177.8 μg m⁻³ seasonally (spring). Elevated seasonal PM_2.5 concentrations were attributed to increased deforestation and wildfires associated with meteorological systems such as the Bolivian high and subtropical jets during dry periods (winter and spring). The MK test revealed a significant reduction in PM_2.5 concentrations between 2003 and 2022, observed in Argentina (north), Brazil (arc of reforestation), Bolivia (south), and Chile (north). Reduction values varied between 0.5 and 10 μg m⁻³.year⁻¹ annually and during winter, attributed to no-tillage practices in regions cultivating commodities. The Pettitt test also identified significant structural changes occurring in 2006–2008 and 2010–2011, aligning with areas highlighted in the MK test. This study provides valuable insights for air quality and environmental monitoring managers to mitigate PM_2.5 pollution in SA.