A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of Leading Countries in Conducting Artificial Intelligence Research

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly expanding field. Given the dynamic nature of AI research, staying up-to-date with this evolving landscape is imperative to guide the global race in this field. Using the world’s largest bibliometric database (SciVal/Scopus), we analyzed the research output of the top 15 countries in AI research productivity between the years 1998 and 2022. Over the past 25 years, the global research output in AI has increased by 26 folds, with China leading the way in the overall number of AI publications (~281,650 articles). During this period, China and India had the highest fold growth (~240–250) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) (~25). However, when normalized to population size and gross domestic product (GDP), Singapore (250 AI publications per million capita) and India (7.7 AI publications per billion GDP) were the best performers in 2022, respectively. When normalized to the number of researchers and gross expenditures on research and development (GERD), again, India was the best with 36.8 AI publications per thousand researchers and 0.77 AI publications per million GERD in 2020. When the overall quality of AI publications over the past decade was considered, Hong Kong and Singapore performed the best with respect to publications in higher percentile journals (the top 1%, 5%, and 10% journals), and Switzerland performed the best with respect to citations/publication and field-weighted citation impact (FWCI). Finally, when the quality measures of publications were normalized to country or research metrics, the three best performers were Hong Kong, Singapore, and Switzerland (although India stood out for citations/GERD). These three countries (along with the United States) also had the highest economic impact as measured by the patent citations per scholarly output, which was aligned with the high FWCI values for these countries. Long-term strategies to help leading countries gain an advantage in the AI frontier have been discussed at the end of the manuscript. These strategies include government initiatives and financial support, talent creation and networking, public awareness, and mindful considerations of rules, guidelines, and ethics.