Booster or inhibitor: Diagnosing effects of low-carbon pilot city policies on urban resilience from the perspectives of heterogeneity, mechanisms and spillover

Abstract

Low-carbon city pilot policies are crucial for addressing urban challenges, alleviating pressure on urban systems, and encouraging sustainable development and resilience. This study focused on Chinese cities to explore how low-carbon city pilot policies influence urban resilience. The impact of the policies on urban resilience was assessed using difference-in-differences, mediating effect, and moderating effect models, showcasing both the variation and mechanism of the effects. The results are as follows: First, the introduction of low-carbon city pilot policies has resulted in a 9.3% increase in urban resilience, with noticeable enhancements over time. Second, the influence of low-carbon city pilot policies on urban resilience demonstrates heterogeneity, particularly with more pronounced effects observed in the eastern and coastal regions, as well as in resource-based, priority, and large cities. Third, the implementation of low-carbon city pilot policies has bolstered urban resilience through the promotion of technological innovation, the transformation of industrial structures, and the improvement of energy composition, with green production having a beneficial moderating function. Fourth, low-carbon city pilot policies have a siphoning effect on urban resilience within 50 km, and a positive spatial spillover effect between 50 and 200 km, both of which diminish with increasing distance. Finally, the examination of the policy implications derived from the study's findings is addressed. This study has the potential to serve as a valuable reference for formulating urban sustainable development strategies.