Toward a renewable future: Attaining 100% renewable electricity generation through sustainable transition

IF 1.4 4区 物理与天体物理 Q4 MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY AIP Advances Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI:10.1063/5.0208838
Rohan Kumar, Muhammad Asim, Ammara Kanwal, Muhammad Jawad, Mohsin Pervez
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Abstract

Despite efforts made over the past two decades, Pakistan continues to face electricity crises. The heavy reliance on fossil fuels, which make up 60% of the country’s energy mix, has raised concerns about energy security and environmental degradation due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Developing effective electricity generation scenarios has been challenging for policymakers and researchers, despite the steady increase in electricity demand. The LEAP software was used in this study to forecast the country’s power demand, and four supply-side scenarios were constructed and examined for the years 2018 through 2040. These scenarios include a baseline scenario, a renewable energy scenario, a more renewable energy scenario, and a near-zero emission scenario, focusing on electricity generation and carbon emissions. The study’s findings, projecting into 2040, indicate that the renewable energy scenarios are environmentally sustainable, with lower GHG emissions compared to the baseline scenario. According to the findings of this study, it is projected that around 615 TWh (terawatt-hours) of renewable energy and nuclear energy will be necessary by the year 2040. The anticipated contributions include 393 TWh from hydroelectric energy, 57 TWh from wind energy, 41 TWh from solar energy, and 62 TWh from other renewable sources. The surge in renewable energy is forecasted to bring near-zero CO2 emissions by 2040, a pivotal step toward a sustainable energy future. A projected energy generation of 615 TWh is expected, which adequately meets the country’s energy demand. Transition to renewable energy is critical for addressing Pakistan’s increasing electricity demands, emphasizing both energy security and environmental sustainability.
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迈向可再生的未来:通过可持续转型实现 100% 可再生能源发电
尽管巴基斯坦在过去二十年里做出了努力,但仍然面临着电力危机。化石燃料占该国能源结构的 60%,对化石燃料的严重依赖引发了人们对能源安全和温室气体(GHG)排放导致的环境退化的担忧。尽管电力需求稳步增长,但对政策制定者和研究人员来说,制定有效的发电方案一直是一项挑战。本研究使用 LEAP 软件预测了该国的电力需求,并构建和研究了 2018 年至 2040 年的四种供应方情景。这些情景包括基线情景、可再生能源情景、更多可再生能源情景和近零排放情景,重点关注发电量和碳排放量。预计到 2040 年,研究结果表明,与基线情景相比,可再生能源情景具有环境可持续性,温室气体排放量较低。根据这项研究的结果,预计到 2040 年将需要约 615 太瓦时(TWh)的可再生能源和核能。预计其中包括水力发电 393 太瓦时,风力发电 57 太瓦时,太阳能发电 41 太瓦时,其他可再生能源发电 62 太瓦时。预计到 2040 年,可再生能源的激增将使二氧化碳排放量接近零,这是迈向可持续能源未来的关键一步。预计能源发电量将达到 615 太瓦时,足以满足该国的能源需求。向可再生能源过渡对于满足巴基斯坦日益增长的电力需求至关重要,同时强调能源安全和环境可持续性。
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来源期刊
AIP Advances
AIP Advances NANOSCIENCE & NANOTECHNOLOGY-MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
6.20%
发文量
1233
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: AIP Advances is an open access journal publishing in all areas of physical sciences—applied, theoretical, and experimental. All published articles are freely available to read, download, and share. The journal prides itself on the belief that all good science is important and relevant. Our inclusive scope and publication standards make it an essential outlet for scientists in the physical sciences. AIP Advances is a community-based journal, with a fast production cycle. The quick publication process and open-access model allows us to quickly distribute new scientific concepts. Our Editors, assisted by peer review, determine whether a manuscript is technically correct and original. After publication, the readership evaluates whether a manuscript is timely, relevant, or significant.
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