{"title":"Environmental-economic analysis of regional energy system under different supply and demand side scenarios with LEAP model","authors":"Parvin Golfam, Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh","doi":"10.1007/s10668-024-05333-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study aims to analyze the cost–benefit of demand–supply scenarios on hydropower generation and supply situation in the Marun catchment (Khuzestan province located in Iran) using the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP). For this purpose, demographic data, macroeconomic indicators, and per capita consumption of various energy carriers in both urban and agricultural sectors in 2015 were extracted and calculated for Marun catchment. Then, key assumptions affecting energy consumption including population growth rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and urbanization percentage for 2015–2040 were estimated and the trend of energy demand changes was modeled. Next, four scenarios including (1) Business-As-Usual (BAU), (2) Demand-Side Management (DSM), (3) energy mix and (4) integration scenarios were simulated with LEAP model and net present value (NPV) index calculated for each of them. The results show that final electricity demand in 2040 will be equal to 5094 MWh, while electricity generation capacity is equal to 3.1 million MWh. The results of cost–benefit analysis of different scenarios show that NPV Index of using energy-saving lamps is—$ 251 million compared to BAU scenario and is the best economic alternative to supply the electricity demand of the Marun catchment.</p>","PeriodicalId":540,"journal":{"name":"Environment, Development and Sustainability","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environment, Development and Sustainability","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-05333-7","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the cost–benefit of demand–supply scenarios on hydropower generation and supply situation in the Marun catchment (Khuzestan province located in Iran) using the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP). For this purpose, demographic data, macroeconomic indicators, and per capita consumption of various energy carriers in both urban and agricultural sectors in 2015 were extracted and calculated for Marun catchment. Then, key assumptions affecting energy consumption including population growth rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and urbanization percentage for 2015–2040 were estimated and the trend of energy demand changes was modeled. Next, four scenarios including (1) Business-As-Usual (BAU), (2) Demand-Side Management (DSM), (3) energy mix and (4) integration scenarios were simulated with LEAP model and net present value (NPV) index calculated for each of them. The results show that final electricity demand in 2040 will be equal to 5094 MWh, while electricity generation capacity is equal to 3.1 million MWh. The results of cost–benefit analysis of different scenarios show that NPV Index of using energy-saving lamps is—$ 251 million compared to BAU scenario and is the best economic alternative to supply the electricity demand of the Marun catchment.
期刊介绍：
Environment, Development and Sustainability is an international and multidisciplinary journal covering all aspects of the environmental impacts of socio-economic development. It is also concerned with the complex interactions which occur between development and environment, and its purpose is to seek ways and means for achieving sustainability in all human activities aimed at such development. The subject matter of the journal includes the following and related issues:
-mutual interactions among society, development and environment, and their implications for sustainable development
-technical, economic, ethical and philosophical aspects of sustainable development
-global sustainability - the obstacles and ways in which they could be overcome
-local and regional sustainability initiatives, their practical implementation, and relevance for use in a wider context
-development and application of indicators of sustainability
-development, verification, implementation and monitoring of policies for sustainable development
-sustainable use of land, water, energy and biological resources in development
-impacts of agriculture and forestry activities on soil and aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity
-effects of energy use and global climate change on development and sustainability
-impacts of population growth and human activities on food and other essential resources for development
-role of national and international agencies, and of international aid and trade arrangements in sustainable development
-social and cultural contexts of sustainable development
-role of education and public awareness in sustainable development
-role of political and economic instruments in sustainable development
-shortcomings of sustainable development and its alternatives.
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