A novel tool for predicting the risk of cancer-specific early death in older patients with primary malignant melanoma of skin: a population-based analysis

Abstract

BackgroundPrimary malignant melanoma (MM) of skin threatens health, especially in the older population, causing a significant risk of early death. The purpose of this study was to establish a diagnostic nomogram to predict the early mortality risk in older patients with primary skin MM and to determine the independent risk factors of cancer-specific early death in such patients.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database provided the clinical and pathological characteristics of older patients with primary skin MM from 2000 to 2019. Initially, a 7:3 random assignment was used to place the recruited patients into training and validation cohorts. Then, the independent risk variables of cancer-specific early death in those individuals were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Those patients’ diagnostic nomograms were constructed using the acquired independent risk variables. Ultimately, the performance of the newly created diagnostic nomogram was verified using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves.ResultsIn this study, 2,615 patients in total were included. Age, histology, liver metastasis, tumor stage, surgery, therapy, and radiation were found to be independent risk factors following statistical analysis, with a special emphasis on early death in older patients with primary skin MM. A diagnostic nomogram for the cancer-specific early death risk was created and validated based on these variables. High agreement was reported between the expected and actual probabilities in the calibration curves. Area under the curves (AUC) of the novel created diagnostic nomogram was greater than that of each independent risk factor, with AUCs for the training and validation cohorts being 0.966 and 0.971, respectively. The nomogram had a high value for its applicability in clinical settings, according to DCA.ConclusionIn older patients with primary skin MM, the current study created a diagnostic nomogram to predict the probability of cancer-specific early death. Because of the nomograms’ good performance, physicians will be better able to identify older patients who are at a high risk of early death and treat them individually to increase their survival benefit.