Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies

Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt, Tobias Reisch, Johannes Stangl, Stefan Thurner
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Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.
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天然气供应剧烈冲击的经济影响和短期缓解战略
2022 年 2 月 24 日,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,这给欧盟带来了天然气供应突然大幅减少的威胁。奥地利是最依赖俄罗斯天然气进口的国家之一,本文对奥地利突然受到天然气供应冲击的后果进行了技术经济分析。我们的分析包括:(a) 详细评估供需双方为缓解俄罗斯天然气进口的直接短缺而采取的应对措施;(b) 绘制工业部门天然气供应净减少的图谱,以量化直接经济冲击和总产出的预期相对减少;(c) 通过使用动态失衡投入产出模型,量化高阶经济影响。我们的研究结果表明,潜在的经济后果可能从相对温和到非常严重不等,这取决于抵消缓解措施的实施和成功与否。我们发现,确保替代天然气进口、储存管理和激励燃料转换是减轻突然停止进口带来的不利影响的最重要的短期政策措施。
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