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Cognitive Hierarchy in Day-to-day Network Flow Dynamics 日常网络流量动态中的认知层次结构
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: arxiv-2409.11908
Minyu Shen, Feng Xiao, Weihua Gu, Hongbo Ye
When making route decisions, travelers may engage in a certain degree ofreasoning about what the others will do in the upcoming day, renderingyesterday's shortest routes less attractive. This phenomenon was manifested ina recent virtual experiment that mimicked travelers' repeated daily trip-makingprocess. Unfortunately, prevailing day-to-day traffic dynamical models failedto faithfully reproduce the collected flow evolution data therein. To this end,we propose a day-to-day traffic behavior modeling framework based on theCognitive Hierarchy theory, in which travelers with different levels ofstrategic-reasoning capabilities form their own beliefs about lower-steptravelers' capabilities when choosing their routes. Two widely-studiedday-to-day models, the Network Tatonnement Process dynamic and the Logitdynamic, are extended into the framework and studied as examples. Calibrationof the virtual experiment is performed using the extended Network TatonnementProcess dynamic, which fits the experimental data reasonably well. We show thatthe two extended dynamics have multiple equilibria, one of which is theclassical user equilibrium. While analyzing global stability is intractable dueto the presence of multiple equilibria, local stabilities near equilibria aredeveloped analytically and verified by numerical experiments. General insightson how key parameters affect the stability of user equilibria are unveiled.
在决定路线时,旅行者可能会在一定程度上推测其他人在接下来的一天里会做些什么,从而使昨天最短的路线变得不那么有吸引力。这种现象在最近的虚拟实验中得到了体现,该实验模仿了旅行者每天重复的出行决策过程。遗憾的是,现有的日常交通动力学模型无法忠实地再现其中收集到的流量演变数据。为此,我们提出了一个基于认知层次理论的日常交通行为建模框架,在该框架中,具有不同战略推理能力水平的旅行者在选择路线时会形成自己对低水平旅行者能力的信念。两个被广泛研究的日常模型--网络塔顿过程动态模型和 Logit 动态模型--被扩展到该框架中,并作为实例进行了研究。虚拟实验的校准是使用扩展的 "网络吞吐过程 "动力学模型进行的,该模型与实验数据的拟合程度相当高。我们证明,这两个扩展动力学有多个均衡,其中一个是经典的用户均衡。由于存在多个平衡点,分析全局稳定性并不容易,但我们通过分析和数值实验验证了平衡点附近的局部稳定性。此外,还揭示了关键参数如何影响用户均衡稳定性的一般见解。
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引用次数: 0
The long-term human capital and health impacts of a pollution reduction programme 减少污染计划对人力资本和健康的长期影响
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: arxiv-2409.11839
Nanna Fukushima, Stephanie von Hinke, Emil N. Sørensen
This paper investigates the effects of the staggered roll-out of a pollutionreduction programme introduced in the UK in the 1950s. The policy allowed localauthorities to introduce so-called Smoke Control Areas (SCAs) which bannedsmoke emissions. We start by digitizing historical pollution data to show thatthe policy led to an immediate reduction in black smoke concentrations. We thenmerge data on the exact location, boundary and month of introduction of SCAs toindividual-level outcomes in older age using individuals' year-month andlocation of birth. We show that exposure to the programme increasedindividuals' birth weights as well as height in adulthood. We find no impact ontheir years of education or fluid intelligence.
本文研究了英国在 20 世纪 50 年代推出的一项减少污染计划交错实施所产生的影响。该政策允许地方当局引入所谓的烟雾控制区 (SCA),禁止烟雾排放。我们首先对历史污染数据进行数字化处理,以显示该政策立即降低了黑烟浓度。然后,我们利用个人的出生年份-月份和地点,将引入烟雾控制区的确切地点、边界和月份的数据与老年期个人层面的结果进行合并。我们的研究结果表明,该计划增加了个体的出生体重以及成年后的身高。我们发现,这对他们的受教育年限或流体智力没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental Evidence That Conversational Artificial Intelligence Can Steer Consumer Behavior Without Detection 实验证明对话式人工智能可以在不被察觉的情况下引导消费者行为
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: arxiv-2409.12143
Tobias Werner, Ivan Soraperra, Emilio Calvano, David C. Parkes, Iyad Rahwan
Conversational AI models are becoming increasingly popular and are about toreplace traditional search engines for information retrieval and productdiscovery. This raises concerns about monetization strategies and the potentialfor subtle consumer manipulation. Companies may have financial incentives tosteer users toward search results or products in a conversation in ways thatare unnoticeable to consumers. Using a behavioral experiment, we show thatconversational AI models can indeed significantly shift consumer preferences.We discuss implications and ask whether regulators are sufficiently prepared tocombat potential consumer deception.
对话式人工智能模型越来越受欢迎,即将取代传统搜索引擎进行信息检索和产品发现。这引发了人们对货币化战略和微妙操纵消费者的可能性的担忧。公司可能有经济动机,以消费者无法察觉的方式在对话中将用户引向搜索结果或产品。通过行为实验,我们发现对话式人工智能模型确实可以显著改变消费者的偏好。我们讨论了其中的影响,并询问监管机构是否做好了充分准备来打击潜在的消费者欺骗行为。
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引用次数: 0
It depends: Varieties of defining growth dependence 这要看情况:确定增长依赖性的各种方法
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: arxiv-2409.12109
Anja JanischewskiFaculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology, Katharina BohnenbergerGerman Institute for Interdisciplinary Social Policy Research, University of Bremen, SOCIUM and Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Matthias KrankeFreiburg Institute for Advanced Studies, Tobias VogelDepartment for Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Faculty of Economy and Society, Witten/Herdecke University, Riwan DriouichInstitut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Tobias FroeseChair for Corporate Sustainability, ESCP Business School, Stefanie GeroldInstitute of Philosophy and Social Science, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Raphael KaufmannZOE Institute for Future-Fit Economies, Lorenz KeyßerInstitute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Jannis NiethammerICLEI European Secretariat, Christopher OlkOtto Suhr Institute for Political Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Matthias SchmelzerNorbert-Elias-Center for Transformation Design and Research, University of Flensburg, Germany and Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Aslı YürükUrban Transformation and Global Change Laboratory, Steffen LangeCentre for Pluralist Economics, University of Siegen
Many socio-economic systems require positive economic growth rates tofunction properly. Given uncertainty about future growth rates and increasingevidence that economic growth is a driver of social and environmental crises,these growth dependencies pose serious societal challenges. In recent years,more and more researchers have thus tried to identify growth-dependent systemsand develop policies to reduce their growth dependence. However, the concept of'growth dependence' still lacks a consistent definition and operationalization,which impedes more systematic empirical and theoretical research. This articleproposes a simple but powerful framework for defining and operationalizing theconcept of 'growth dependence' across socio-economic systems. We provide ageneral definition consisting of four components that can be specified fordifferent empirical cases: (1) the system under investigation, (2) the unit ofmeasurement of growth, (3) the level of growth and (4) the relevant functionsor properties of the system under investigation. According to our generaldefinition, a socio-economic system is growth-dependent if it requires along-term positive growth rate in terms of a unit of economic measurement tomaintain all its functions or properties that are relevant within the chosennormative framework. To illustrate the usefulness of our scheme, we apply it tothree areas at the heart of the existing literature on growth dependence:employment, social insurance systems and public finance. These case studiesdemonstrate that whether or not a system is growth-dependent hinges not only onthe empirical properties of the system itself but also on the specification ofthe concept of growth dependence. Our framework enables coherent, robust andeffective definitions and research questions, fostering comparability offindings across different cases and disciplines.
许多社会经济体系需要正经济增长率才能正常运转。鉴于未来增长率的不确定性,以及越来越多的证据表明经济增长是社会和环境危机的驱动力,这些增长依赖性构成了严峻的社会挑战。因此,近年来,越来越多的研究人员试图找出依赖增长的系统,并制定政策来降低其增长依赖性。然而,"增长依赖 "这一概念仍然缺乏统一的定义和操作方法,这阻碍了更系统的实证和理论研究。本文提出了一个简单而有力的框架,用于定义和操作跨社会经济体系的 "增长依赖性 "概念。我们提供了一个由四个部分组成的一般定义,可针对不同的经验案例加以具体化:(1) 所研究的系统;(2) 增长的测量单位;(3) 增长水平;(4) 所研究系统的相关功能或属性。根据我们的一般定义,如果一个社会经济系统需要经济计量单位的长期正增长率来维持其在所选规范框架内的所有相关功能或属性,那么该系统就是依赖于增长的。为了说明我们的方案的实用性,我们将其应用于有关增长依赖性的现有文献的三个核心领域:就业、社会保险制度和公共财政。这些案例研究表明,一个制度是否依赖于增长,不仅取决于制度本身的经验属性,还取决于增长依赖性概念的具体化。我们的框架使定义和研究问题更加连贯、稳健和有效,从而提高了不同案例和学科研究结果的可比性。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking NACE Classification Embeddings with OpenAI for Enhanced Analysis and Processing 利用 OpenAI 解锁 NACE 分类嵌入,增强分析和处理能力
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: arxiv-2409.11524
Andrea Vidali, Nicola Jean, Giacomo Le Pera
The Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the EuropeanCommunity (NACE) is the standard classification system for the categorizationof economic and industrial activities within the European Union. This paperproposes a novel approach to transform the NACE classification intolow-dimensional embeddings, using state-of-the-art models and dimensionalityreduction techniques. The primary challenge is the preservation of thehierarchical structure inherent within the original NACE classification whilereducing the number of dimensions. To address this issue, we introduce custommetrics designed to quantify the retention of hierarchical relationshipsthroughout the embedding and reduction processes. The evaluation of thesemetrics demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in retainingthe structural information essential for insightful analysis. This approach notonly facilitates the visual exploration of economic activity relationships, butalso increases the efficacy of downstream tasks, including clustering,classification, integration with other classifications, and others. Throughexperimental validation, the utility of our proposed framework in preservinghierarchical structures within the NACE classification is showcased, therebyproviding a valuable tool for researchers and policymakers to understand andleverage any hierarchical data.
欧洲共同体经济活动统计分类(NACE)是欧盟内部经济和工业活动分类的标准分类系统。本文提出了一种新方法,利用最先进的模型和降维技术将 NACE 分类转换为低维嵌入。主要挑战在于如何在减少维数的同时保留原始 NACE 分类中固有的层次结构。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了自定义指标,旨在量化整个嵌入和降维过程中层次关系的保留情况。对这些指标的评估证明了所提出的方法在保留对深入分析至关重要的结构信息方面的有效性。这种方法不仅有助于对经济活动关系进行可视化探索,还能提高下游任务的效率,包括聚类、分类、与其他分类的整合等。通过实验验证,展示了我们提出的框架在 NACE 分类中保留层次结构的实用性,从而为研究人员和政策制定者理解和利用任何层次数据提供了宝贵的工具。
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引用次数: 0
What Does ChatGPT Make of Historical Stock Returns? Extrapolation and Miscalibration in LLM Stock Return Forecasts ChatGPT 如何看待历史股票回报率?LLM 股票回报率预测中的外推法和误判法
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: arxiv-2409.11540
Shuaiyu Chen, T. Clifton Green, Huseyin Gulen, Dexin Zhou
We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stockreturns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourcedplatform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals,LLM forecasts over-extrapolate, placing excessive weight on recent performancesimilar to humans. LLM forecasts appear optimistic relative to historical andfuture realized returns. When prompted for 80% confidence interval predictions,LLM responses are better calibrated than survey evidence but are pessimisticabout outliers, leading to skewed forecast distributions. The findings suggestLLMs manifest common behavioral biases when forecasting expected returns butare better at gauging risks than humans.
我们研究了大型语言模型(LLMs)如何解释历史股票回报率,并将其预测结果与股票排名众包平台的估计结果进行了比较。虽然股票回报率表现出短期反转,但 LLM 预测过度推断,过分看重与人类相似的近期表现。相对于历史和未来实现的回报率,LLM 预测显得比较乐观。当被要求进行 80% 置信区间预测时,LLM 的回答比调查证据的校准效果更好,但对异常值持悲观态度,导致预测分布偏斜。研究结果表明,LLM 在预测预期收益时表现出常见的行为偏差,但在衡量风险方面比人类更胜一筹。
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引用次数: 0
How (Not) to Incentivize Sustainable Mobility? Lessons from a Swiss Mobility Competition 如何(不)激励可持续交通?瑞士交通竞赛的启示
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: arxiv-2409.11142
Silvio Sticher, Hannes Wallimann, Noah Balthasar
We investigate the impact of a gamified experiment designed to promotesustainable mobility among students and staff members of a Swisshigher-education institution. Despite transportation being a major contributorto domestic CO2 emissions, achieving behavioral change remains challenging. Inour two-month mobility competition, structured as a randomized controlled trialwith a 3x3 factorial design, neither monetary incentives nor norm-based nudgingsignificantly influences mobility behavior. Our (null) results suggest thatthere is no "gamified quick fix" for making mobility substantially moresustainable. Also, we provide some lessons learned on how not to incentivizesustainable mobility by addressing potential shortcomings of our mobilitycompetition.
我们调查了一项游戏化实验的影响,该实验旨在促进瑞士一所高等教育机构的学生和教职员工的可持续交通。尽管交通是造成国内二氧化碳排放的主要因素,但实现行为改变仍具有挑战性。在我们为期两个月、采用 3x3 因式设计的随机对照试验中,金钱激励和基于规范的劝导都没有对交通行为产生显著影响。我们的(无效)结果表明,并没有 "游戏化的快速解决方案 "能使流动性具有实质性的可持续性。此外,我们还通过解决流动性竞赛的潜在缺陷,为如何不激励可持续流动性提供了一些经验教训。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation of Public Cash Transfer Programs on US Entrepreneurs' Financing Constraint 模拟公共现金转移计划对美国企业家融资约束的影响
Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: arxiv-2409.09955
Liukun Wu
In this paper, I conduct a policy exercise about how much the introduction ofa cash transfer program as large as a Norwegian-sized lottery sector to theUnited States would affect startups. The key results are that public cashtransfer programs (like lottery) do not increase much the number of newstartups, but increase the size of startups, and only modestly increaseaggregate productivity and output. The most important factor for entrepreneursto start new businesses is their ability.
在本文中,我进行了一项政策演练,研究在美国引入一个规模与挪威彩票业相当的现金转移项目会对初创企业产生多大影响。主要结果是,公共现金转移计划(如彩票)并不会大幅增加新创企业的数量,但会扩大新创企业的规模,而且只会适度提高总体生产率和产出。创业者创办新企业的最重要因素是他们的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin Transaction Behavior Modeling Based on Balance Data 基于余额数据的比特币交易行为建模
Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: arxiv-2409.10407
Yu Zhang, Claudio Tessone
When analyzing Bitcoin users' balance distribution, we observed that itfollows a log-normal pattern. Drawing parallels from the successful applicationof Gibrat's law of proportional growth in explaining city size and wordfrequency distributions, we tested whether the same principle could account forthe log-normal distribution in Bitcoin balances. However, our calculationsrevealed that the exponent parameters in both the drift and variance termsdeviate slightly from one. This suggests that Gibrat's proportional growth rulealone does not fully explain the log-normal distribution observed in Bitcoinusers' balances. During our exploration, we discovered an intriguingphenomenon: Bitcoin users tend to fall into two distinct categories based ontheir behavior, which we refer to as ``poor" and ``wealthy" users. Poor users,who initially purchase only a small amount of Bitcoin, tend to buy morebitcoins first and then sell out all their holdings gradually over time. Thecertainty of selling all their coins is higher and higher with time. Incontrast, wealthy users, who acquire a large amount of Bitcoin from the start,tend to sell off their holdings over time. The speed at which they sell theirbitcoins is lower and lower over time and they will hold at least a small partof their initial holdings at last. Interestingly, the wealthier the user, thelarger the proportion of their balance and the higher the certainty they tendto sell. This research provided an interesting perspective to explore bitcoinusers' behaviors which may apply to other finance markets.
在分析比特币用户的余额分布时,我们发现它遵循对数正态分布模式。借鉴吉布拉特比例增长定律在解释城市规模和词频分布方面的成功应用,我们测试了同样的原理能否解释比特币余额的对数正态分布。然而,我们的计算显示,漂移项和方差项的指数参数都与 1 略有不同。这表明,吉布拉特的比例增长法则并不能完全解释比特币用户余额的对数正态分布。在探索过程中,我们发现了一个有趣的现象:比特币用户根据他们的行为倾向于分为两个不同的类别,我们称之为 "贫穷 "和 "富有 "用户。贫穷的用户最初只购买少量比特币,他们倾向于先购买更多的比特币,然后随着时间的推移逐渐卖出所有持有的比特币。随着时间的推移,卖出所有比特币的确定性越来越高。与此相反,一开始就购买大量比特币的富裕用户往往会随着时间的推移逐渐抛售他们持有的比特币。随着时间的推移,他们抛售比特币的速度会越来越低,最后至少会持有一小部分初始持有的比特币。有趣的是,用户越富有,其余额比例就越大,他们倾向于抛售的确定性就越高。这项研究为探索比特币用户的行为提供了一个有趣的视角,可能适用于其他金融市场。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the state-space model of unawareness 重新审视无意识状态空间模型
Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: arxiv-2409.09818
Alex A. T. Rathke
We propose a knowledge operator based on the agent's possibilitycorrespondence which preserves her non-trivial unawareness within the standardstate-space model. Our approach may provide a solution to the classicalimpossibility result that 'an unaware agent must be aware of everything'.
我们提出了一种基于代理的可能性对应关系的知识运算符,它在标准状态空间模型中保留了代理的非微观不可知性。我们的方法可能会为 "不自知的代理必定知道一切 "这一经典的不可能性结果提供一个解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - ECON - General Economics
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