Price effects and pass-through of a VAT increase on restaurants in Germany: causal evidence for the first months and a mega sports event

Abstract

This paper analyses the price effects and tax pass-through of a VAT increase from 7% to 19% on restaurant services in Germany as of January 1, 2024. The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is used to identify the causal effects of this reform using prices of goods and services unaffected by the tax change as a counterfactual for restaurant prices. Immediately in January, 31% of the tax increase was passed on to consumer prices. Pass-through increased to 58% in the following six months, which corresponds to a causal consumer price increase of about 6.5%. The presumed increase in demand for gastronomy services due to hosting the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament did not alter the path of price adjustments compared to previous months.