Net zero performance evaluation of European Continent Countries considering Paris Agreement climate goals

Abstract

Purpose

Today’s one of the most important difficulties is tackling climate change and its effects on the environment. The Paris Agreement states that nations must balance the amount of greenhouse gases they emit and absorb until 2050 to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gases and to support sustainable development. According to the agreement, each country must determine, plan and regularly report on its contributions. Thus, it is important for the countries to predict and analyze their net zero performances in 2050. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate European Continent Countries' net zero performances at the targeted year.

Design/methodology/approach

The European Continent Countries that ratified the Paris Agreement are specified as decision making units (DMUs). Input and output indicators are specified as primary energy consumption, freshwater withdrawals, gross domestic product (GDP), carbon-dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous-oxide (N₂O) emissions. Data from 1980 to 2019 are obtained and forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) until 2050. Then, the countries are clustered based on the forecasts of primary energy consumption and freshwater withdrawals using k-means algorithm. As desirable and undesirable outputs arise simultaneously, the performances are computed using Pure Environmental Index (PEI) and Mixed Environmental Index (MEI) data envelopment analysis (DEA) models.

Findings

It is expected that by 2050, CO₂ emissions of seven countries remain constant, N₂O emissions of seven countries remain stable and five countries’ both CO₂ and N₂O emissions remain constant. While it can be seen as success that many countries are expected to at least stabilize one emission, the likelihood of achieving net zero targets diminishes unless countries undertake significant reductions in emissions. According to the results, in Cluster 1, Turkey ranks last, while France, Germany, Italy and Spain are efficient countries. In Cluster 2, the United Kingdom ranks at last, while Greece, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden are efficient countries.

Originality/value

In the literature, generally, CO₂ emission is considered as greenhouse gas. Moreover, none of the studies measured the net-zero performance of the countries in 2050 employing analytical techniques. This study objects to investigate how well European Continent Countries can comply with the necessities of the Agreement. Besides CO₂ emission, N₂O emission is also considered and the data of European Continent Countries in 2050 are estimated using ARIMA. Then, countries are clustered using k-means algorithm. DEA models are employed to measure the performances of the countries. Finally, forecasts and models validations are performed and comprehensive analysis of the results is conducted.