Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI:10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6
Brian Odhiambo Ayugi, Charles Onyutha, Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian, Huanhuan Zhu, Hassen Babousmail, Eun-Sung Chung
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Abstract

Quantifying the vulnerability of population to multi-faceted climate change impacts on human well-being remains an urgent task. Recently, weather and climate extremes have evolved into bivariate events that heighten climate risks in unexpected ways. To investigate the potential impacts of climate extremes, this study analyzes the frequency, magnitude, and severity of observed and future compound hot-dry extremes (CHDEs) over East Africa. The CHDE events were computed from the observed precipitation and maximum temperature data of the Climatic Research Unit gridded Timeseries version five (CRU TS4.05) and outputs of climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, this study quantifies the population exposure to CHDE events based on future population density datasets under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Using the 75th/90th and 25th/10th percentile of precipitation and temperature as threshold to define severe and moderate events, the results show that the East African region experienced multiple moderate and severe CHDE events during the last twenty years. Based on a weighted multi-model ensemble, projections indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of moderate CHDE will double, and severe CHDE will be 1.6 times that of baseline (i.e., an increase of 60%). Strong evidence of an upward trajectory is noted after 2080 for both moderate and severe CHDE. Southern parts of Tanzania and northeastern Kenya are likely to be the most affected, with all models agreeing (signal-to-noise ratio, SNR > 1), indicating a likely higher magnitude of change during the mid- and far-future. Consequentially, population exposure to these impacts is projected to increase by up to 60% for moderate and severe CHDEs in parts of southern Tanzania. Attribution analysis highlights that climate change is the primary driver of CHDE exposure under the two emission pathways. The current study underscores the urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions to prevent exceeding global warming thresholds and to develop regional adaptation measures.

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东非上空干热复合极端气候的放大及相关人口暴露情况
量化人口在气候变化对人类福祉的多方面影响面前的脆弱性仍然是一项紧迫的任务。最近,极端天气和气候已演变成双变量事件,以意想不到的方式加剧了气候风险。为了研究极端气候的潜在影响,本研究分析了在东非观测到的和未来的复合干热极端气候(CHDEs)的频率、规模和严重程度。CHDE事件是根据气候研究单位网格化时间序列第五版(CRU TS4.05)的观测降水和最高气温数据以及耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)气候模式的输出结果计算得出的。此外,本研究还根据两种共享社会经济路径(SSP)下的未来人口密度数据集,量化了人口受CHDE事件影响的程度。使用降水和温度的第 75/90 百分位数和第 25/10 百分位数作为定义严重和中度事件的阈值,结果显示东非地区在过去二十年中经历了多次中度和严重的 CHDE 事件。基于加权多模式集合的预测表明,在 SSP5-8.5 情景下,中度 CHDE 的频率将增加一倍,重度 CHDE 将是基线的 1.6 倍(即增加 60%)。2080 年之后,中度和重度慢性缺氧和慢性营养不良的发生率都将呈上升趋势。坦桑尼亚南部地区和肯尼亚东北部地区可能受到的影响最大,所有模型的结果一致(信噪比为 1),表明中远期的变化幅度可能更大。因此,在坦桑尼亚南部的部分地区,中度和重度干旱和半干旱地区的人口受这些影响的程度预计将增加多达 60%。归因分析突出表明,在两种排放路径下,气候变化是导致暴露于氯溴二苯醚的主要驱动因素。本研究强调了减少二氧化碳排放以防止超过全球变暖阈值并制定地区适应措施的紧迫性。
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来源期刊
Climatic Change
Climatic Change 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
10.20
自引率
4.20%
发文量
180
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.
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