Four- to Six-Year Periodic Variation of Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Its Three Main Driving Factors

Abstract

Besides the rapid retreating trend of Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE), this study found the most outstanding low-frequency variation of SIE to be a 4–6-year periodic variation. Using a clustering analysis algorithm, the SIE in most ice-covered regions was clustered into two special regions: Region-1 around the Barents Sea and Region-2 around the Canadian Basin, which were located on either side of the Arctic Transpolar Drift. Clear 4–6-year periodic variation in these two regions was identified using a novel method called “running linear fitting algorithm”. The rate of temporal variation of the Arctic SIE was related to three driving factors: the regional air temperature, the sea-ice areal flux across the Arctic Transpolar Drift, and the divergence of sea-ice drift. The 4–6-year periodic variation was found to have always been present since 1979, but the SIE responded to different factors under heavy and light ice conditions divided by the year 2005. The joint contribution of the three factors to SIE variation exceeded 83% and 59% in the two regions, respectively, remarkably reflecting their dynamic mechanism. It is proven that the process of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is closely associated with the three factors, being the fundamental source of the 4–6-year periodic variations of Arctic SIE.