Modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of metropolitan urban heat islands and predicting the future situation (Tehran metropolis)

Abstract

Metropolises in developing countries have many problems. These problems include land use changes, environmental pollution, and temperature changes due to the expansion of industrial areas, population growth and high traffic. In this study, the spatio-temporal relationship of urban heat islands (UHI) with land use changes in the period from 2000 to 2020 and the modeling of the future changes of these UHI until 2050 were studied in Tehran. For this purpose, satellite images, LCM (Land Change Modeler) model, modeling of the relationship among surface temperatures with environmental parameters, and simulation of UHI using regression model were used to predict the future condition of these UHI until 2050. The findings demonstrated that the area of residential areas increased during the study period and the area of gardens and urban green spaces decreased. Analyzing the future scenario maps reveals that the last 20 years’ pattern is still continuing. The UHI of city had an increasing trend until 2020, especially in the west and south of Tehran. Regions 21, 22, and 9, followed by regions 18, 19, and 20 in the south, have the most UHI. A significant positive correlation between green spaces and surface temperature shows the effect of vegetation in controlling the intensity of UHIs in Tehran. The results of surface temperature prediction modeling showed that the trend of temperature increase continues, and 2050 will be the most critical year of the predicted period.