Bayesian estimation of transmission networks for infectious diseases

Abstract

Reconstructing transmission networks is essential for identifying key factors like superspreaders and high-risk locations, which are critical for developing effective pandemic prevention strategies. In this study, we developed a Bayesian framework that integrates genomic and temporal data to reconstruct transmission networks for infectious diseases. The Bayesian transmission model accounts for the latent period and differentiates between symptom onset and actual infection time, enhancing the accuracy of transmission dynamics and epidemiological models. Additionally, the model allows for the transmission of multiple pathogen lineages, reflecting the complexity of real-world transmission events more accurately than models that assume a single lineage transmission. Simulation results show that the Bayesian model reliably estimates both the model parameters and the transmission network. Moreover, hypothesis testing effectively identifies direct transmission events. This approach highlights the crucial role of genetic data in reconstructing transmission networks and understanding the origins and transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.