Evaluation of the impact of the tropical oscillations on the Indian summer monsoon in the global climate models

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Theoretical and Applied Climatology Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI:10.1007/s00704-024-05160-w
Ushnanshu Dutta, Moumita Bhowmik, Anupam Hazra, Chein-Jung Shiu, Jen-Ping Chen
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Abstract

The seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), as well as the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) that strongly modulate MISO, is important to the country for water and crop management. We have analyzed the precipitation, convection, and cloud in the selected models from the sixth generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6). This study highlights the significant differences in simulating MISO and MJO features between the selected CMIP6 models and their possible reasons. The mean and intraseasonal features of MISO and MJO varied significantly in CMIP6 models, which may impact better depiction of convection and total cloud fraction. The probability distributions of rainfall and OLR in CMIP6 models also indicate significant variations in simulating the MISO and mean ISM. The results demonstrate the importance of cloud and convection in CMIP6 models to depict realistic MISO and MJO and provide a road map for improving ISM climate prediction and projections.

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评估全球气候模型中热带振荡对印度夏季季风的影响
印度夏季季风(ISM)和季风季节内涛动(MISO)以及强烈调节季风季节内涛动的马登-朱利安涛动(MJO)的季节预测对印度的水资源和作物管理非常重要。我们分析了第六代耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP6)所选模式中的降水、对流和云。这项研究强调了所选 CMIP6 模式在模拟 MISO 和 MJO 特征方面的显著差异及其可能原因。在 CMIP6 模式中,MISO 和 MJO 的平均特征和季节内特征差异显著,这可能会影响对流和总云量的更好描述。CMIP6 模式中降雨和 OLR 的概率分布也表明,在模拟 MISO 和平均 ISM 时存在显著差异。研究结果表明,CMIP6 模式中的云和对流对于描述真实的 MISO 和 MJO 非常重要,并为改进 ISM 气候预测和预报提供了路线图。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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