Temperature extremes Projections over Bangladesh from CMIP6 Multi-model Ensemble

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Theoretical and Applied Climatology Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI:10.1007/s00704-024-05173-5
Mst Yeasmin Akter, Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam, Javed Mallick, Md Mahfuz Alam, Edris Alam, Shamsuddin Shahid, Jatish Chandra Biswas, GM Manirul Alam, Subodh Chandra Pal, Md Moinul Hosain Oliver
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Abstract

Bangladesh, a sub-tropical monsoon climate with low-lying areas, is very susceptible to the impacts of climate change. However, there has been a shortage of studies about the periodicity and projected changes in extreme temperature in this area, which is a crucial part of adapting to climate change. A study employed a multimodal ensemble (MME) mean of 13 bias-corrected CMIP6 GCMs to fill this knowledge gap. The purpose of this study was to project changes in 8 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) across Bangladesh for the near future (2021–2060) and far future (2061–2100) under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The research analyzed the average spatiotemporal changes by considering the reference period from 1995 to 2014 for each indicator in future periods. The results indicate that Bangladesh is projected to see a rise in average annual temperature in the 21st century, aligning with the global average. Warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p) were projected to increase, while cold days (TX10p) and nights (TN10p) were expected to decrease across the country for both the near (2021–2060) and far future (2061–2100). The projected highest increase in TX90p and TN90p was 6.90 days/decade in the northeast, and the highest decrease in TX10p and TN10p was 6.22 days/decade in the southwest. The study revealed a higher rise in TN90p than TX90p, indicating a faster decline in cold extremes than a rise in hot extremes. The rising temperature would cause an increase in the spell duration index (WSDI) and growing degree day (GDD) by 5–6 and 6–7 days/decade, respectively. Therefore, immediate measures must be taken to mitigate the detrimental effects of extreme temperatures, leading to heat stress. To reduce the effects on agriculture, ecosystems, human health, and biodiversity, policymakers and stakeholders must understand these anticipated changes and adopt appropriate actions.

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CMIP6 多模式集合对孟加拉国极端气温的预测
孟加拉国属于亚热带季风气候,地势低洼,非常容易受到气候变化的影响。然而,对这一地区极端气温的周期性和预计变化的研究却很缺乏,而这正是适应气候变化的关键部分。一项研究采用了 13 个经过偏差校正的 CMIP6 GCM 的多模式集合(MME)平均值,以填补这一知识空白。这项研究的目的是预测在中度(SSP2-4.5)和高度(SSP5-8.5)两种不同的共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景下,近期(2021-2060 年)和远期(2061-2100 年)孟加拉国全国 8 个极端温度指数(ETIs)的变化。研究通过考虑 1995 年至 2014 年这一参照期,分析了未来时期各项指标的平均时空变化。结果表明,预计 21 世纪孟加拉国的年平均气温将上升,与全球平均气温一致。预计在近期(2021-2060 年)和远期(2061-2100 年),全国温暖日(TX90p)和温暖夜(TN90p)都将增加,而寒冷日(TX10p)和寒冷夜(TN10p)都将减少。预计东北地区 TX90p 和 TN90p 的最高增幅为 6.90 天/十年,西南地区 TX10p 和 TN10p 的最高降幅为 6.22 天/十年。研究显示,TN90p 的上升幅度高于 TX90p,这表明极端寒冷天气的下降速度快于极端炎热天气的上升速度。气温升高将导致辐合持续时间指数(WSDI)和生长度日(GDD)分别增加 5-6 天/十年和 6-7 天/十年。因此,必须立即采取措施,减轻极端气温导致热应激的不利影响。为了减少对农业、生态系统、人类健康和生物多样性的影响,政策制定者和利益相关者必须了解这些预期变化,并采取适当的行动。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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