The Fight Against Hailstorms in Italy, 1950–70: A Long History of Confirmation Bias

IF 0.1 3区 哲学 Q4 HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE Physics in Perspective Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI:10.1007/s00016-024-00315-8
Emanuele Eccel, Rocco Scolozzi, Dino Zardi, Maria Carmen Beltrano
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Abstract

This article analyzes the experiments for hail suppression by means of exploding rockets in Italy, where a remarkable national program of active defense was undertaken in the period 1950–70. The history of the trials of this technique is reconstructed in view of highlighting the methodological flaws of the entire experimental approach. A supplementary source of information is offered by about 1,600 “storm postcards”: reports sent back by farmers after single weather events. An archive of these postcards, recently collected, digitized, and analyzed for the Trentino region (northern Italy), offers an interesting glimpse into the scientific and pseudoscientific approaches to a difficult to predict and volatile phenomenon, both for farmers and for appointed experts.

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意大利抗击冰雹的斗争,1950-70 年:确认偏差的悠久历史
意大利在 1950-70 年间实施了一项引人注目的国家积极防御计划,本文分析了意大利利用爆炸火箭抑制冰雹的实验。文章重构了这一技术的试验历史,以突出整个试验方法在方法论上的缺陷。约 1600 张 "风暴明信片 "提供了补充信息来源:农民在单次天气事件后寄回的报告。最近为特伦蒂诺地区(意大利北部)收集、数字化和分析的这些明信片档案,为农民和指定专家提供了一个有趣的视角,让他们了解以科学或伪科学的方法来处理难以预测和变化无常的现象。
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来源期刊
Physics in Perspective
Physics in Perspective 物理-科学史与科学哲学
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Physics in Perspective seeks to bridge the gulf between physicists and non-physicists through historical and philosophical studies that typically display the unpredictable as well as the cross-disciplinary interplay of observation, experiment, and theory that has occurred over extended periods of time in academic, governmental, and industrial settings and in allied disciplines such as astrophysics, chemical physics, and geophysics. The journal also publishes first-person accounts by physicists of significant contributions they have made, biographical articles, book reviews, and guided tours of historical sites in cities throughout the world. It strives to make all articles understandable to a broad spectrum of readers – scientists, teachers, students, and the public at large. Bibliographic Data Phys. Perspect. 1 volume per year, 4 issues per volume approx. 500 pages per volume Format: 15.5 x 23.5cm ISSN 1422-6944 (print) ISSN 1422-6960 (electronic)
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The Value of the Einstein-Besso Manuscript The Protest that Never Was: Silencing Political Activism at CERN Before and During the Vietnam War The Fight Against Hailstorms in Italy, 1950–70: A Long History of Confirmation Bias In Praise of Builders Milestones Along the Way: Autobiographical Reflections of Roger H. Stuewer
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