Statistical prediction for nonlinear failure function of linear loads: application to plate buckling in ship structure

IF 2.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Journal of Marine Science and Technology Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI:10.1007/s00773-024-01021-3
Sadaoki Matsui
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Abstract

This study presents a practical method for calculating the probability of exceedance (PoE) of the nonlinear failure function of the linear loads randomly fluctuating in irregular waves. In general, obtaining the exact PoE of such nonlinear quantities requires sophisticated computational method that are not well-suited for practical design. In contrast, the author in a previous study proposed a practical formula of the PoE distribution for von Mises stresses by asymptotic approximation, which can be applied when the criterion surface is ellipsoid in the stochastic variable space. Following this, the present study shows a method for calculating the PoE for a more general function of which the isosurface is expressed as a combination of ellipsoids. As a specific example of its application, this paper takes the limit state of the plates in ship structures specified in the common structural rules (CSR) and presents the calculation procedure of direct numerical integration as well as asymptotic approximation approaches. Calculation of the 1/1000 maximum expected value of the evaluation function of plates in short-term sea states using 700 actual plates in a ship structure confirms that the proposed method, which does not require integration, is in good agreement with rigorous methods using numerical integration.

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线性载荷非线性失效函数的统计预测:在船舶结构板材屈曲中的应用
本研究提出了一种实用方法,用于计算在不规则波浪中随机波动的线性载荷的非线性失效函数的超概率(PoE)。一般来说,获得此类非线性量的精确超概率需要复杂的计算方法,而这种方法并不适合实际设计。与此相反,作者在之前的研究中通过渐近逼近法提出了一个实用的 von Mises 应力 PoE 分布公式,当判据面在随机变量空间中为椭圆形时,该公式可以适用。在此基础上,本研究展示了一种计算 PoE 的方法,适用于等值面表示为椭圆组合的更一般函数。本文以通用结构规则(CSR)中规定的船舶结构板的极限状态为例,介绍了直接数值积分和渐近逼近方法的计算过程。通过使用船舶结构中的 700 块实际板材计算短期海况下板材评价函数的 1/1000 最大期望值,证实了所提出的无需积分的方法与使用数值积分的严格方法具有良好的一致性。
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来源期刊
Journal of Marine Science and Technology
Journal of Marine Science and Technology 工程技术-工程:海洋
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
3.80%
发文量
47
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Marine Science and Technology (JMST), presently indexed in EI and SCI Expanded, publishes original, high-quality, peer-reviewed research papers on marine studies including engineering, pure and applied science, and technology. The full text of the published papers is also made accessible at the JMST website to allow a rapid circulation.
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