How does oil policy uncertainty influence resource rents? New empirical evidence from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Abstract

The uncertainty surrounding oil‐related policies has raised concerns about its influence on revenues derived from resource extraction activities. In this view, the current study aims to investigate the nuanced relationship between oil policy uncertainty (OPU) and resource rents, focusing on oil rents (ORTs), natural gas rents (NRTs), and total resource rents (TRT). Analyzing data spanning from 1985 to 2019 across Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, various econometric models including DOLS, FMOLS, and autoregressive distributed lag are employed to assess the impact of OPU on resource rents. The empirical findings reveal a significant negative effect of heightened OPU levels on resource rents, indicating a reduction in ORT, NRT, and TRT. This negative impact underscores the deterrence of long‐term investments in oil exploration and production due to regulatory unpredictability, leading to decreased revenues from oil extraction activities. Additionally, increased OPU contributes to heightened volatility in oil prices, disrupting the stability of resource rents. Furthermore, variables such as FDI inflow, inflation rate, and banking sector development exhibit positive relationships with resource rents, emphasizing their role in bolstering revenues derived from natural resources. The study's implications highlight the necessity for policymakers to address and mitigate OPU to foster stability and sustainable revenues within resource‐driven economies. This study contributes to the existing literature by offering empirical insights into the adverse impact of OPU on resource rents.