Achieving net-zero power supply in China needs better cost uncertainty quantification

Abstract

Achieving net-zero power supply in China will require massive investments over the coming decades. Precise cost uncertainty quantification is essential to align this transition with economic and policy realities. Here, we report an analysis addressing this need by introducing a cost uncertainty estimation framework, integrating meta-analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and probabilistic cost forecasting. Our findings reveal significant cost uncertainties for China’s energy transition from 2020 to the end of the century, estimated to be between 15.1 and 62.7 trillion US dollars for the 1.5°C scenario and 12.9–50.8 trillion US dollars for the 2°C scenario. The lower end of these estimates suggests that China’s net-zero power supply transition could be more cost effective than previously anticipated. However, the feasibility of these transitions largely depends on the availability of low-cost capital, highlighting the urgent need to develop strategies that accelerate clean energy finance and reduce investment hesitation.