Homeowners’ financial vulnerability over the house price cycle

IF 2.8 4区管理学 Q2 BUSINESS Industrial and Corporate Change Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI:10.1093/icc/dtae031

Ruben Tarne

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates the financial vulnerability dynamics of indebted homeowners over the housing cycle using an agent-based housing market model, calibrated with UK microdata. The findings suggest that financial vulnerability is primarily driven by house purchases and dissaving due to a wealth effect on consumption. The former is more important during house price upswings, while the latter becomes significant at high price levels. Additionally, current vulnerability is path-dependent on previous purchases at high prices, as these purchases, due to a wealth effect, result in temporarily elevated consumption and consequently reduced financial buffers.

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房主在房价周期中的财务脆弱性

本文使用基于代理的住房市场模型，通过英国微观数据校准，研究了负债房主在住房周期中的财务脆弱性动态。研究结果表明，财务脆弱性主要由购房和因财富效应而产生的消费储蓄驱动。前者在房价上涨时更为重要，而后者在高房价水平时变得非常重要。此外，当前的脆弱性与之前的高价购房有路径依赖关系，因为由于财富效应，这些购房会导致消费暂时上升，从而减少财务缓冲。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Industrial and Corporate Change Multiple-

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

4.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal covers the following: the internal structures of firms; the history of technologies; the evolution of industries; the nature of competition; the decision rules and strategies; the relationship between firms" characteristics and the institutional environment; the sociology of management and of the workforce; the performance of industries over time; the labour process and the organization of production; the relationship between, and boundaries of, organizations and markets; the nature of the learning process underlying technological and organizational change.