Tracing changes in manufacturing-related carbon emissions: A structural decomposition analysis from the perspective of China

Abstract

This study analyzed changes in the carbon emissions of China's top five trading partners using a structural decomposition model based on inter-country input-output analysis. The main influencing factors were analyzed using constant price input-output tables for 2007, 2012, 2017, and 2021. Changes in the carbon emissions of the trading partner economies during 2007–2021 were decomposed into 15 essential factors to investigate the impacts of intermediate and final demands, and then isolate the influence of intermediate and final demands of China. The results revealed the following: (i) Carbon emissions in the developed economies experienced decline followed by increase after the Covid-19 pandemic, whereas ASEAN economies experienced steady increase in carbon emissions. (ii) Carbon intensity was one of the most important factors affecting carbon emissions. (iii) The size of China's expanding final demand contributed to an increase in carbon emissions in the primary and natural resources industry, capital-intensive manufacturing industry, and knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry.