Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-25DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.012
Qi Cui , ShiWen Yao , Chenyu Meng , Mahuaqing Zuo , Yu Liu
The concerns regarding the challenges of large-scale industrial robot applications to energy and environment systems have added uncertainty to this trend. This study utilized a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economic and energy consequences of large-scale industrial robot applications in China’s manufacturing industry. This study found that industrial robot applications will substantially enhance the output value of China’s manufacturing sectors by raising their production efficiency. Meanwhile, the most of manufacturing sectors will experience a significant increase in electricity and primary energy consumption, leading to the increased carbon emissions in China. With the decomposition of electricity consumption, the direct electricity consumptions for all manufacturing sectors were positive, whereas the indirect ones were mostly negative. So, trade-offs between economic growth and carbon reduction exist in industrial robot applications. Therefore, a series of carbon reduction measures should be implemented alongside technological advancements to balance economic benefits and ecological costs.
{"title":"Energy and economic consequences of large-scale industrial robot applications in China’s manufacturing industry","authors":"Qi Cui , ShiWen Yao , Chenyu Meng , Mahuaqing Zuo , Yu Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concerns regarding the challenges of large-scale industrial robot applications to energy and environment systems have added uncertainty to this trend. This study utilized a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the economic and energy consequences of large-scale industrial robot applications in China’s manufacturing industry. This study found that industrial robot applications will substantially enhance the output value of China’s manufacturing sectors by raising their production efficiency. Meanwhile, the most of manufacturing sectors will experience a significant increase in electricity and primary energy consumption, leading to the increased carbon emissions in China. With the decomposition of electricity consumption, the direct electricity consumptions for all manufacturing sectors were positive, whereas the indirect ones were mostly negative. So, trade-offs between economic growth and carbon reduction exist in industrial robot applications. Therefore, a series of carbon reduction measures should be implemented alongside technological advancements to balance economic benefits and ecological costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 230-247"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.004
Paul Carrillo-Maldonado, Zoe Cruz
This paper analyzes the effect of minimum wage on the macroeconomic performance of Ecuador. We use narrative identification to obtain the structural changes because of minimum wage. We estimate the impulse response function to understand the dynamic response of output, prices, and unemployment to exogenous changes in the minimum wage through local projections and structural vector autoregressive. The main results show a positive response of the gross domestic product in the short term when the minimum wage increases. Other variables such as inflation, unemployment rate, and real wage do not respond to this shock.
{"title":"Macroeconomic consequences of minimum wage in a developing country","authors":"Paul Carrillo-Maldonado, Zoe Cruz","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the effect of minimum wage on the macroeconomic performance of Ecuador. We use narrative identification to obtain the structural changes because of minimum wage. We estimate the impulse response function to understand the dynamic response of output, prices, and unemployment to exogenous changes in the minimum wage through local projections and structural vector autoregressive. The main results show a positive response of the gross domestic product in the short term when the minimum wage increases. Other variables such as inflation, unemployment rate, and real wage do not respond to this shock.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 137-148"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.003
Yifei Li , Yuegang Song , Chien-Chiang Lee
In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, promoting the deep integration of artificial intelligence technology and the real economy has become a core concern for ensuring the safety of the manufacturing industry chain and advancing high-quality development. However, how industrial robot adoption (IRA) can empower global value chain (GVC) resilience, its mechanisms of action and boundaries of influence remain to be clarified as a major practical issue that requires urgent investigation. To examine this issue, this study uses the World Industrial Robot Database from the International Federation of Robotics, World Bank World Development Indicators and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) input–output tables to construct a three-dimensional, country–industry–year panel covering nine manufacturing industries in 53 countries from 2000 to 2018. We quantify manufacturing GVCs’ resilience from safety and stability dimensions and systematically examine the influence of IRA. The findings reveal that IRA can significantly improve manufacturing GVCs’ overall resilience, which remains valid following a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Further analysis reveals that this enabling effect is more prominent for labour- and technology-intensive industries, OECD countries and high import-dependent countries. Mechanism analysis confirms that IRA primarily enhances GVCs’ resilience through three channels of labour substitution, reduced trade costs and promoting technological innovation. In addition, our spatial econometric model results demonstrate that the impact of IRA not only benefits the country but also has a positive driving effect on neighbouring countries’ GVC resilience through significant positive spatial spillover effects. This study provides new insights into the evolution of manufacturing GVCs in the era of Industry 4.0 and offers valuable empirical evidence and decision-making guidance for countries to advance GVC upgrading.
{"title":"Industrial robot adoption and the resilience of manufacturing global value chains","authors":"Yifei Li , Yuegang Song , Chien-Chiang Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, promoting the deep integration of artificial intelligence technology and the real economy has become a core concern for ensuring the safety of the manufacturing industry chain and advancing high-quality development. However, how industrial robot adoption (IRA) can empower global value chain (GVC) resilience, its mechanisms of action and boundaries of influence remain to be clarified as a major practical issue that requires urgent investigation. To examine this issue, this study uses the World Industrial Robot Database from the International Federation of Robotics, World Bank World Development Indicators and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) input–output tables to construct a three-dimensional, country–industry–year panel covering nine manufacturing industries in 53 countries from 2000 to 2018. We quantify manufacturing GVCs’ resilience from safety and stability dimensions and systematically examine the influence of IRA. The findings reveal that IRA can significantly improve manufacturing GVCs’ overall resilience, which remains valid following a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Further analysis reveals that this enabling effect is more prominent for labour- and technology-intensive industries, OECD countries and high import-dependent countries. Mechanism analysis confirms that IRA primarily enhances GVCs’ resilience through three channels of labour substitution, reduced trade costs and promoting technological innovation. In addition, our spatial econometric model results demonstrate that the impact of IRA not only benefits the country but also has a positive driving effect on neighbouring countries’ GVC resilience through significant positive spatial spillover effects. This study provides new insights into the evolution of manufacturing GVCs in the era of Industry 4.0 and offers valuable empirical evidence and decision-making guidance for countries to advance GVC upgrading.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 93-109"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-11DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.007
Timothy A. Kohler , Adam Green , Scott G. Ortman
We use archaeological data on house sizes to generate estimates for economic inequality and economic growth from the Early Holocene to about the first millennium AD. At worldwide scales these variables are positively but loosely related; patterns are more divergent at regional levels. Cross-sectional regression shows that the formation of central-place hierarchies and development of landesque capital (indicating land-limited production) were positively linked to both economic growth and inequality; development of bronze smelting, animal management, and farming were also positively linked to growth. Iron smelting was linked to reduced inequality whereas presence of copper smelting and animals for portage were linked to reduced growth. We track the dynamics of inequality and growth through time in SW Asia/SE Europe, Britain, and SE North America, and analyze the first two with general additive models. Examination of three well-known interaction zones (Bronze Age West Asia, the Classic Maya world, and first-millennium-AD Britain) shows surprisingly regular transformations of the relationship between economic growth and inequality on millennial time scales. Overall our findings emphasize a strong cumulative component to both economic growth (productivity) and economic inequality over the substantial portions of the pre-capitalist Holocene that we analyze.
{"title":"Kuznets at -7000: Is there a really long-term relationship between growth and inequality?","authors":"Timothy A. Kohler , Adam Green , Scott G. Ortman","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use archaeological data on house sizes to generate estimates for economic inequality and economic growth from the Early Holocene to about the first millennium AD. At worldwide scales these variables are positively but loosely related; patterns are more divergent at regional levels. Cross-sectional regression shows that the formation of central-place hierarchies and development of landesque capital (indicating land-limited production) were positively linked to both economic growth and inequality; development of bronze smelting, animal management, and farming were also positively linked to growth. Iron smelting was linked to reduced inequality whereas presence of copper smelting and animals for portage were linked to reduced growth. We track the dynamics of inequality and growth through time in SW Asia/SE Europe, Britain, and SE North America, and analyze the first two with general additive models. Examination of three well-known interaction zones (Bronze Age West Asia, the Classic Maya world, and first-millennium-AD Britain) shows surprisingly regular transformations of the relationship between economic growth and inequality on millennial time scales. Overall our findings emphasize a strong cumulative component to both economic growth (productivity) and economic inequality over the substantial portions of the pre-capitalist Holocene that we analyze.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 207-217"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-28DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.011
S Chandrasekhar , Karthikeya Naraparaju , Ajay Sharma
We provide annual estimates of inequality in monthly per capita household earnings in India over the period 2017/18 to 2022/23 based on analysis of India’s Periodic Labour Force Surveys. Over the six years, the estimate of inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient is in the range of 0.40 to 0.44 and, as measured by the Mean Log Deviation, between 0.28 and 0.34. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the level of urbanization may increase the Mean Log Deviation by 0.5 to 0.7 per cent. Our analysis suggests that inequality will start declining only when India’s urbanization rate is in the region of 63 to 74 per cent. Further, after accounting for variation in sectoral means and inequalities, we find that the development of the inequality–urbanization relationship at the sub-national level conforms to the Kuznets process.
{"title":"Inequality, urbanization, and the Kuznets process: Evidence from India’s annual periodic labour force surveys","authors":"S Chandrasekhar , Karthikeya Naraparaju , Ajay Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide annual estimates of inequality in monthly per capita household earnings in India over the period 2017/18 to 2022/23 based on analysis of India’s Periodic Labour Force Surveys. Over the six years, the estimate of inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient is in the range of 0.40 to 0.44 and, as measured by the Mean Log Deviation, between 0.28 and 0.34. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the level of urbanization may increase the Mean Log Deviation by 0.5 to 0.7 per cent. Our analysis suggests that inequality will start declining only when India’s urbanization rate is in the region of 63 to 74 per cent. Further, after accounting for variation in sectoral means and inequalities, we find that the development of the inequality–urbanization relationship at the sub-national level conforms to the Kuznets process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 302-312"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Including developing countries in the low-carbon transition is essential for meeting climate goals, yet their structural specificities are often ignored in transition models. This article presents a Structural Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model for open developing economies, dividing production into resource-based exports, non-tradable goods and services, and other tradable sectors. While SFC models highlight financial constraints, they rarely adopt a multi-sectoral perspective. Our model contributes by (1) providing a flexible framework that accommodates diverse country characteristics, balancing short-term demand with long-term structural strategies, and (2) demonstrating the limitations of carbon pricing alone in economies dependent on carbon-intensive sectors. By integrating structurally distinct sectors within a monetary framework, we reveal how financial constraints stemming from structural rigidities shape transition dynamics. Our results indicate that carbon pricing’s effectiveness depends on tax revenue recycling to avert recessions and support sustainable decarbonization. This requires fostering innovation and competitiveness in low-emission industries.
{"title":"Carbon tax recycling: Fostering reindustrialization in financialized developing economies","authors":"Guilherme Magacho , Antoine Godin , Danilo Spinola , Devrim Yilmaz","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Including developing countries in the low-carbon transition is essential for meeting climate goals, yet their structural specificities are often ignored in transition models. This article presents a Structural Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model for open developing economies, dividing production into resource-based exports, non-tradable goods and services, and other tradable sectors. While SFC models highlight financial constraints, they rarely adopt a multi-sectoral perspective. Our model contributes by (1) providing a flexible framework that accommodates diverse country characteristics, balancing short-term demand with long-term structural strategies, and (2) demonstrating the limitations of carbon pricing alone in economies dependent on carbon-intensive sectors. By integrating structurally distinct sectors within a monetary framework, we reveal how financial constraints stemming from structural rigidities shape transition dynamics. Our results indicate that carbon pricing’s effectiveness depends on tax revenue recycling to avert recessions and support sustainable decarbonization. This requires fostering innovation and competitiveness in low-emission industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145852480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.013
Gianmarco Oro
Building upon Pasinetti’s insights, the essay examines the restructuring of global value chains as they transition from being determined by industry level cost-minimization processes to being shaped by supranational coordinated planning aimed at maintaining full employment. By addressing alternative linear programming problems through the integration of the rectangular choice of technology framework within a multi-regional input–output system, we adopt the perspective of a hypothetical supranational social planner tasked with optimizing the level of global income while ensuring full employment within each individual country, thereby preventing forced cross-border migration and regional imbalances in employment. The investigation provides insights for shaping industrial and trade policies, specifically: i. the optimal structure of trade flows to maximize global income and achieve multi-regional full employment; ii. the level and composition of additional final demand required to attain such macroeconomic position; iii. the distribution of the supply of intermediate inputs between multiple providers. Furthermore, at the methodological level, an alternative procedure is proposed to derive effective quantities and prices through input–output linear programming when the number of constraints exceeds the number of variables leading to multiple choices.
{"title":"Global value chains under full employment: An input–output linear optimization","authors":"Gianmarco Oro","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building upon Pasinetti’s insights, the essay examines the restructuring of global value chains as they transition from being determined by industry level cost-minimization processes to being shaped by supranational coordinated planning aimed at maintaining full employment. By addressing alternative linear programming problems through the integration of the rectangular choice of technology framework within a multi-regional input–output system, we adopt the perspective of a hypothetical supranational social planner tasked with optimizing the level of global income while ensuring full employment within each individual country, thereby preventing forced cross-border migration and regional imbalances in employment. The investigation provides insights for shaping industrial and trade policies, specifically: i. the optimal structure of trade flows to maximize global income and achieve multi-regional full employment; ii. the level and composition of additional final demand required to attain such macroeconomic position; iii. the distribution of the supply of intermediate inputs between multiple providers. Furthermore, at the methodological level, an alternative procedure is proposed to derive effective quantities and prices through input–output linear programming when the number of constraints exceeds the number of variables leading to multiple choices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 274-284"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-25DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.010
Wilson Peres , João Carlos Ferraz , Julia Torracca , Tatiana Fleming , Carolina Dias
This article investigates how the specialised literature has dealt with different dimensions of green industrial policies. For that, a quantitative bibliometric analysis is combined with a qualitative literature review. The quantitative study covers co-citation and co-occurrence patterns from 1,660 articles published in Scopus and Web of Science from 1976 to 2023. The qualitative approach examines the objectives, methodologies and policy proposals of 33 selected articles. The quantitative exercise searched for common threads and stands in the relevant literature on green industrial policy. From the qualitative approach the attempt is to unveil and understand how the relevant industrial policy issues were dealt with by a selected group of most cited authors.
The reviewed literature suggests that sustainability-bound policy challenges are specific to locations, sectors, technologies, and moments of time. In this sense, industrial policies would have to consider the peculiar features of different sustainability challenges, whether the nature of instruments being implemented are pertinent to these challenges, and the existing and potential State capabilities to effectively implement policy actions.
Two reflections can be derived from the analysis. Firstly, the idiosyncratic and comprehensiveness of sustainable challenges imply the inexistence of one ideal “green” industrial policy model. Secondly, the political economy of green industrial policies must be considered. The analysis of policy packages and directives, resource allocation and/or regulatory orientations should bring to fore the nature of favoured and neglected issues or actors and the possible disputes among them; the possible tensions and misalignments arising from interrelations among different pertinent executive agencies, and societal influences and interactions as public institutions are not insulated from the legitimate pressures exerted by relevant social actors.
本文探讨了专业文献如何处理绿色产业政策的不同维度。为此，定量文献计量学分析与定性文献综述相结合。该定量研究涵盖了1976年至2023年在Scopus和Web of Science上发表的1660篇论文的共被引和共现模式。定性方法审查了33个选定条款的目标、方法和政策建议。定量练习在绿色产业政策的相关文献中寻找共同点和立场。从定性方法的尝试是揭示和理解相关的产业政策问题是如何被一组被引用最多的作者处理的。综述的文献表明，与可持续性相关的政策挑战是特定于地点、行业、技术和时间的。在这个意义上，工业政策必须考虑到不同的可持续性挑战的特点，正在执行的文书的性质是否与这些挑战有关，以及国家有效执行政策行动的现有和潜在能力。从分析中可以得出两个反射。首先，可持续挑战的特殊性和全面性意味着不存在一种理想的“绿色”产业政策模式。其次，必须考虑绿色产业政策的政治经济学。对一揽子政策和指示、资源分配和（或）管制方向的分析应突出受到优待和被忽视的问题或行为者的性质以及它们之间可能发生的争端；不同相关行政机构之间的相互关系以及作为公共机构的社会影响和相互作用可能产生的紧张和不协调，并不能避免相关社会行为者施加的合法压力。
{"title":"Green industrial policy: where from, where to?","authors":"Wilson Peres , João Carlos Ferraz , Julia Torracca , Tatiana Fleming , Carolina Dias","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article investigates how the specialised literature has dealt with different dimensions of green industrial policies. For that, a quantitative bibliometric analysis is combined with a qualitative literature review. The quantitative study covers co-citation and co-occurrence patterns from 1,660 articles published in Scopus and Web of Science from 1976 to 2023. The qualitative approach examines the objectives, methodologies and policy proposals of 33 selected articles. The quantitative exercise searched for common threads and stands in the relevant literature on green industrial policy. From the qualitative approach the attempt is to unveil and understand how the relevant industrial policy issues were dealt with by a selected group of most cited authors.</div><div>The reviewed literature suggests that sustainability-bound policy challenges are specific to locations, sectors, technologies, and moments of time. In this sense, industrial policies would have to consider the peculiar features of different sustainability challenges, whether the nature of instruments being implemented are pertinent to these challenges, and the existing and potential State capabilities to effectively implement policy actions.</div><div>Two reflections can be derived from the analysis. Firstly, the idiosyncratic and comprehensiveness of sustainable challenges imply the inexistence of one ideal “green” industrial policy model. Secondly, the political economy of green industrial policies must be considered. The analysis of policy packages and directives, resource allocation and<del>/or</del> regulatory orientations should bring to fore the nature of favoured and neglected issues or actors and the possible disputes among them; the possible tensions and misalignments arising from interrelations among different pertinent executive agencies, and societal influences and interactions as public institutions are not insulated from the legitimate pressures exerted by relevant social actors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 285-301"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.001
Meichen Zhang, Yuan Wang
Amid rising uncertainty in global climate governance and increasingly difficult inter-state coordination, leveraging domestic specialization to convert efficiency gains into emissions reductions offers a feasible pathway. In this study, we develop a time-series global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) database embedding Chinese provinces, enabling subnational value chain decomposition and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI)-based analysis of energy intensity dynamics. This framework captures the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s energy intensity, identifies key inflection points across policy phases, and disentangles underlying drivers. Empirical results indicate that between 2003 and 2017, China experienced a decline in energy intensity across both production and consumption sides, with reductions of 69% and 60%, respectively. These improvements peaked during the 11th Five-Year Plan, as fossil-fuel-reliant, resource-intensive provinces cut energy intensity well above the national average. Interprovincial industrial linkages are a key channel driving energy-efficiency gains. Optimizing domestic value-chain coordination provides a feasible, efficiency-based mitigation margin under existing national burden-sharing.
{"title":"Unlocking the potential for energy efficiency across china's subnational value chains","authors":"Meichen Zhang, Yuan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid rising uncertainty in global climate governance and increasingly difficult inter-state coordination, leveraging domestic specialization to convert efficiency gains into emissions reductions offers a feasible pathway. In this study, we develop a time-series global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) database embedding Chinese provinces, enabling subnational value chain decomposition and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI)-based analysis of energy intensity dynamics. This framework captures the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s energy intensity, identifies key inflection points across policy phases, and disentangles underlying drivers. Empirical results indicate that between 2003 and 2017, China experienced a decline in energy intensity across both production and consumption sides, with reductions of 69% and 60%, respectively. These improvements peaked during the 11th Five-Year Plan, as fossil-fuel-reliant, resource-intensive provinces cut energy intensity well above the national average. Interprovincial industrial linkages are a key channel driving energy-efficiency gains. Optimizing domestic value-chain coordination provides a feasible, efficiency-based mitigation margin under existing national burden-sharing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 168-184"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.009
Tao Ma, Huaxin Zhong, Tiantian Wang, Junzhen Li, Hao Wang
Firm dynamics are a fundamental driver of regional productivity growth. This study examines how urban AI development shapes firm dynamics and regional productivity using Chinese city-level and firm registration data (2014–2023). We find AI stimulates both firm entry and exit while raising incumbent firm productivity. Mediation analysis shows that increased entry is the primary channel through which AI enhances regional productivity. Effects are stronger in eastern regions, core cities, and technology-intensive sectors. In some traditional industries, AI leads to significantly stronger exit than entry effects, and even reduces productivity in certain sectors. Spatial econometric results reveal AI attracts entry to specific locations (a “siphoning effect”) while reducing exit pressures elsewhere (a “buffering effect”). The research offers new evidence on how AI influences economic efficiency through firm reallocation, with implications for regional policy.
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