Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Cash transfers and the Phillips curve: The case of Brazil during the pandemic 现金转移和菲利普斯曲线：大流行病期间的巴西案例

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.020

This paper investigates the linear and nonlinear effects of the pandemic period on the dynamics of the Brazilian inflation through the estimation of a hybrid Phillips curve. Despite the undisputed socio-economic benefits, cash transfers paid by the government to low-income families increased inflation, with an estimated coefficient similar in magnitude to the output gap. The backward-looking component decreased while the forward-looking component increased sharply, suggesting a shift in the price-setting behavior toward anticipating fluctuations in the business cycle. There was also a significant reduction in the flatness of the Phillips curve, as the output gap coefficient more than doubled during this period. These findings might be explained by the unprecedented combination of sectorial increases in demand, a decrease in aggregate supply, anticipated money supply growth, and loose monetary policy. They unveil an undesired side effect of cash transfers on inflation that adversely affected the purchase power of the program beneficiaries.

本文通过对混合菲利普斯曲线的估计，研究了大流行病时期对巴西通货膨胀动态的线性和非线性影响。尽管社会经济效益毋庸置疑，但政府向低收入家庭支付的现金转移增加了通货膨胀，估计系数的大小与产出缺口相似。后瞻性成分减少，而前瞻性成分急剧增加，这表明价格制定行为转向预测商业周期的波动。菲利普斯曲线的平坦性也显著下降，因为产出缺口系数在此期间增加了一倍多。这些发现可能是由于部门需求增加、总供给减少、预期货币供应增长和宽松货币政策前所未有地结合在一起造成的。它们揭示了现金转移对通货膨胀产生的不良副作用，这种副作用对计划受益人的购买力产生了不利影响。

引用次数: 0

European institutional quality and carbon emissions: Convergence club analysis 欧洲机构质量与碳排放：趋同俱乐部分析

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.013

If the quality of institutions in the European Union (EU) converged, harmonized policies could achieve climate neutrality. This paper examines institutional convergence within the EU using log-t regression, allowing for the possibility of multiple equilibria. It also analyzes how overall institutional quality affects carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in three identified convergence clubs over thirty years. Driscoll-Kraay and Prais-Winsten standard errors estimators are used, accounting for economic growth, renewable energy, industrialization, urbanization, innovation, and exogenous shocks. The results show that institutional quality affects CO₂ emissions differently across clubs, emphasizing customized policy approaches. Addressing endogeneity, a two-stage least squares fixed effects estimator reveals that institutional quality has a negative, but statistically insignificant, effect on CO₂ emissions in both the highest and lowest institutional quality clubs, while significantly increasing emissions in the mid-tier club. Economic growth increases CO₂ emissions, whereas renewable energy consumption reduces them across all convergence clubs and methods. Other factors vary across clubs.

如果欧洲联盟（欧盟）的机构质量趋同，统一的政策就能实现气候中和。本文采用对数回归法研究了欧盟内部的制度趋同，并考虑了多重均衡的可能性。本文还分析了三十年来三个已确定的趋同俱乐部的整体制度质量如何影响二氧化碳（CO2）排放量。研究使用了 Driscoll-Kraay 和 Prais-Winsten 标准误差估算器，并考虑了经济增长、可再生能源、工业化、城市化、创新和外生冲击。结果表明，制度质量对各俱乐部二氧化碳排放量的影响不同，强调了定制化的政策方法。为解决内生性问题，采用两阶段最小二乘法固定效应估计法发现，在制度质量最高和最低的俱乐部中，制度质量对二氧化碳排放量的影响均为负数，但在统计上并不显著，而在中等水平的俱乐部中，二氧化碳排放量则显著增加。在所有趋同俱乐部和方法中，经济增长增加了二氧化碳排放量，而可再生能源消费则减少了排放量。其他因素也因俱乐部而异。

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引用次数: 0

The paradox of debt and Minsky cycle: Nonlinear effects of debt and capital and variety of capitalism 债务与明斯基周期的悖论：债务和资本的非线性效应与资本主义的多样性

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.006

To study the variety of financialized capitalism contingent on firms’ institutional behavior, we model the US type of shareholder-oriented capitalism with the Minskyan cycle and the Japanese type of partially fledged financialized capitalism with high firm retention rates using the paradox of debt (Steindl) cycle. The results show: 1) instability could arise when firms have a high retention rate of profit to deleverage; 2) the debt-led and the debt-burdened demand regimes can be distinguished by setting sufficiently low retention rates for the former and that of high rates for the latter; 3) the level of retention rate is important in determining the short-run condition but also sets the condition of the long-run Minsky or Steindl debt cycle while we observe secular stagnation in the accumulation rate; 4) the debt-burdened demand transforms into a long-wave cyclical growth with sufficiently high firms' animal spirits, which exhibits the possibility of demand-led cyclical growth.

为了研究金融化资本主义的多样性取决于企业的制度行为，我们用明斯基周期模拟了股东导向资本主义的美国类型，并用债务悖论（Steindl）周期模拟了企业保留率高的部分金融化资本主义的日本类型。结果显示1）当企业去杠杆化的利润留存率较高时，可能会出现不稳定；2）可以通过为前者设定足够低的留存率和为后者设定较高的留存率来区分债务主导型需求制度和债务负担型需求制度；3）留存率的高低是决定短期条件的重要因素，同时也决定了长期的明斯基或斯坦达尔债务周期的条件，而我们观察到的是积累率的长期停滞；4）债务负担的需求转化为足够高的企业动物精神的长波周期性增长，表现出需求主导的周期性增长的可能性。

引用次数: 0

What drives the corporate payoffs of using generative artificial intelligence? 是什么推动了企业使用生成式人工智能的回报？

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.011

Artificial Intelligence, a set of technologies that aim to replicate human cognitive functions, has seen remarkable improvements over the last decade. In particular, generative AI (GenAI), a subset of AI able to generate content tasks based on Large Language Models (LLM), has recently gained momentum. Based on an extensive analysis of generative AI use cases in large enterprises, we find that Gen AI shows strong labor productivity improvements across metrics such as throughput time, unit cost, and task effectiveness. However, the distribution of gains is asymmetric in favor of a few companies. While the current distribution of gains does not provide evidence of a power law effect, the current asymmetry reflects differences in AI resources/capabilities across companies - mainly data access, AI talent, or AI governance.

人工智能是一套旨在复制人类认知功能的技术，在过去十年中取得了显著的进步。尤其是生成式人工智能（GenAI），它是人工智能的一个子集，能够基于大型语言模型（LLM）生成内容任务。基于对大型企业中生成式人工智能使用案例的广泛分析，我们发现，生成式人工智能在吞吐时间、单位成本和任务效率等指标上都显示出强大的劳动生产率改进效果。然而，收益分配并不对称，只对少数公司有利。虽然目前的收益分配没有提供幂律效应的证据，但目前的不对称反映了各公司在人工智能资源/能力方面的差异--主要是数据访问、人工智能人才或人工智能治理方面的差异。

引用次数: 0

Transition finance facilitates lower-cost achievement of climate targets: A case study of China 过渡融资有助于以较低成本实现气候目标：中国案例研究

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.009

Low-carbon transition in carbon-intensive industries is crucial for achieving climate targets. However, it's challenging for enterprises and projects in these industries to access the necessary funding for their transition within the existing financial system. In this context, transition finance supports the low-carbon transition of carbon-intensive industries, injecting momentum into achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, the precise impact of transition finance on the macroeconomy remains uncertain, and the effective strategies for its implementation to effectively advance national climate objectives are still unclear. This study integrates the stock-flow consistent method into a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of transition finance supporting China's climate goals. Results indicate that promoting investment in energy systems capital within carbon-intensive industries through transition finance can reduce the economic cost of achieving carbon reduction targets in China, with a reduction ranging from 0.02 % to 0.26 %. Additionally, transition finance optimizes the energy structure in the short term, mitigates the exit of high-carbon industries, and lessens the impact of climate targets on these enterprises. However, implementing transitional financing requires enhanced information disclosure and strict regulation of fund flows to mitigate potential credit risks. The research findings provide valuable insights into China's transition finance policy formulation and serve as a reference for other regions seeking financial support to achieve climate targets.

碳密集型产业的低碳转型对于实现气候目标至关重要。然而，在现有的金融体系中，这些行业的企业和项目要获得必要的转型资金却面临挑战。在这种情况下，转型融资支持了碳密集型产业的低碳转型，为实现碳中和目标注入了动力。然而，转型融资对宏观经济的确切影响尚不确定，实施转型融资以有效推进国家气候目标的有效策略也尚不明确。本研究将存量流量一致法纳入可计算一般均衡模型，以评估转型融资支持中国气候目标的宏观经济影响。结果表明，通过转型融资促进碳密集型产业内的能源系统资本投资，可以降低中国实现碳减排目标的经济成本，降低幅度在 0.02% 至 0.26% 之间。此外，过渡性融资还能在短期内优化能源结构，缓解高碳产业的退出，减轻气候目标对这些企业的影响。不过，实施转型融资需要加强信息披露，严格监管资金流向，以降低潜在的信贷风险。研究成果为中国过渡性融资政策的制定提供了有价值的启示，也为其他地区寻求资金支持以实现气候目标提供了参考。

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引用次数: 0

Tradeoff between air pollution and economic benefits in migration dynamics: Evidence from China 移民动态中空气污染与经济效益之间的权衡：来自中国的证据

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.010

This paper investigates how environmental amenity and economic benefits are balanced in migration dynamics from the individual perspective. We construct a structural model based on the dataset that combines PM2.5 concentration data from NASA and migration information from the China Migration Dynamic Survey (CMDS). Thermal inversion is used as a source of exogenous shock in air pollution to address the omitted variable bias. The results indicate that if the ambient concentration of PM2.5 at destinations increases 1 μg/m³, the probability of migration at the individual level will decrease by 0.90 %. A battery of robustness checks is implemented, including different approaches to measuring migration decision, using imputed wage instead of disposable income, using different IV and proxy variable. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the deterrence effect of air pollution is more pronounced for the following groups: migrants who are male, move from a rural residence, or to a coastal destination, belong to working-age population, engage in a tertiary industry, have a postgraduate-level education, and support two or more elders.

本文从个体角度研究了环境便利性和经济效益如何在人口迁移动态中实现平衡。我们结合美国国家航空航天局（NASA）提供的 PM2.5 浓度数据和中国人口迁移动态调查（CMDS）提供的人口迁移信息，构建了一个结构模型。热反转被用作空气污染的外生冲击源，以解决遗漏变量偏差问题。结果表明，如果目的地的 PM2.5 环境浓度增加 1 μg/m3，个人层面的迁移概率将降低 0.90%。我们进行了一系列稳健性检验，包括采用不同的方法来衡量移民决策，使用估算工资而不是可支配收入，使用不同的IV和替代变量。异质性分析表明，空气污染的阻遏效应对以下群体更为明显：男性移民、从农村迁移或迁移到沿海目的地、属于劳动适龄人口、从事第三产业、受过研究生教育以及赡养两位或两位以上老人。

引用次数: 0

The environmental consequences of industrial agglomeration: New evidence from city-level data in China 产业集聚的环境后果：来自中国城市一级数据的新证据

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.012

In the context of sustainable development, environmental policies increasingly focus on reducing carbon emissions worldwide. Industrial agglomeration (IAGG) has emerged as a potential factor in achieving this objective by reducing carbon emissions and improving air quality. This study examines the direct and indirect impacts, spatial dynamics, and policy impacts of industrial agglomeration on air pollution levels. Panel data from 278 cities in China between 2011 and 2020 are utilized to investigate the potential of industrial agglomeration to reduce air pollution. Multiple regression models are employed, these models explore the mechanisms through which industrial agglomeration can have a positive effect on air pollution, highlighting economic growth, inclusive finance, digital economy and technological innovation as crucial factors. The study also investigates the spatial spillover effects of industrial agglomeration, finding that the concentration ratio and specialization of neighbouring cities significantly contribute to local air pollution levels. Furthermore, this contribution increases progressively with distance. The study investigates the spillover effects of environmental pollution and industrial agglomeration-related policies on PM_2.5 concentration, concluding that such spillover effects lead to a decrease in PM_2.5 concentration in neighbouring locations.

在可持续发展的背景下，环境政策越来越重视在全球范围内减少碳排放。工业集聚（IAGG）已成为通过减少碳排放和改善空气质量来实现这一目标的潜在因素。本研究探讨了产业集聚对空气污染水平的直接和间接影响、空间动态和政策影响。研究利用 2011 年至 2020 年中国 278 个城市的面板数据，探讨了产业集聚在减少空气污染方面的潜力。研究采用了多元回归模型，这些模型探讨了产业集聚对空气污染产生积极影响的机制，强调经济增长、普惠金融、数字经济和技术创新是关键因素。研究还探讨了产业集聚的空间溢出效应，发现相邻城市的集聚率和专业化程度对当地的空气污染水平有显著的促进作用。而且，这种影响随着距离的增加而逐渐增大。研究调查了环境污染和工业集聚相关政策对 PM2.5 浓度的溢出效应，得出的结论是这种溢出效应会导致邻近地区 PM2.5 浓度下降。

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引用次数: 0

Why are workers in the Spanish energy industry more likely to earn higher wages than other Spanish workers? 为什么西班牙能源行业的工人比其他西班牙工人更有可能获得更高的工资？

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.008

In Spain, 85.5 % of energy industry workers have a salary that is more than the Spanish average salary. We apply a binomial logit model based on the maximum likelihood estimation method to analyze the factors that determine the probability of obtaining these higher wages. The sample used was taken from the Wage Structure Survey (2018) prepared by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. Firstly, the results show that this sector has a consolidated workforce and that the workers' educational levels are appropriate for their jobs. Secondly, there are no gender-based wage differences in this industry. Finally, working conditions and wages are established through collective bargaining agreements at the company level, which stands in contrast to other types of agreements established in the rest of the Spanish economy.

在西班牙，85.5% 的能源产业工人的工资高于西班牙的平均工资。我们采用基于最大似然估计方法的二项对数模型，分析决定获得这些较高工资概率的因素。所用样本来自西班牙国家统计局编制的《工资结构调查（2018 年）》。首先，结果表明，该行业的劳动力结构较为合理，工人的教育水平与其工作相适应。其次，该行业不存在基于性别的工资差异。最后，工作条件和工资是通过公司一级的集体谈判协议确定的，这与西班牙其他经济部门的其他类型协议形成鲜明对比。

引用次数: 0

The role of local institutional quality for the digital and environmental transitions in Italy 地方机构质量对意大利数字和环境转型的作用

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.002

In this paper we analyze the effect of institutional quality on the so-called Twin transition at provincial level in Italy. To carry out the analysis, we use two proxies for the ecological transition, namely waste management and air pollution, and two proxies for the digital transition, namely ultra-wide band connections and provincial innovative start-ups. All the models are estimated on a panel of 103 provinces with a time dimension that varies for the different dependent variables. We employ Spatial Durbin Model estimator to take into account spatial dependence across provinces. Our findings indicate that the quality of local institutions may have an important role for the ecological transition, but not for the digital transition. Higher levels of institutional quality increase the performance in waste management and reduce the level of local air pollution. Conversely, the estimated coefficient of institutional quality is not statistically significant neither for ultra-wide band nor for innovative start-ups. Institutional quality turns to be significant but negative for the digital transition when dummy variable controlling for the presence of science-oriented university is added in the model specification. These results confirm that the green transition is largely policy-driven and the local ‘institutional environment’ is an essential ingredient for its effectiveness. The driving forces of the digital transition, instead, can be better found in socio-economic factors that depend on the ‘economic quality’ of the local system and its propensity to innovate within larger-scale innovation trajectories.

本文分析了制度质量对意大利省级所谓双转型的影响。为了进行分析，我们使用了生态转型的两个替代变量，即废物管理和空气污染，以及数字转型的两个替代变量，即超宽带连接和省级创新型初创企业。所有模型都是在 103 个省份的面板上进行估计的，不同因变量的时间维度各不相同。我们采用空间杜宾模型估算器来考虑各省之间的空间依赖性。我们的研究结果表明，地方机构的质量可能对生态转型有重要作用，但对数字转型没有作用。较高的制度质量水平会提高废物管理绩效，降低当地空气污染水平。相反，对于超宽带和创新型初创企业而言，机构质量的估计系数在统计上都不显著。如果在模型中加入控制以科学为导向的大学的虚拟变量，则制度质量对数字化转型而言是显著的，但却是负的。这些结果证实，绿色转型在很大程度上是由政策驱动的，而当地的 "制度环境 "是其有效性的重要因素。相反，数字化转型的驱动力可以更好地从社会经济因素中找到，这些因素取决于当地制度的 "经济质量 "及其在更大规模创新轨迹中的创新倾向。

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引用次数: 0

Wealth polarization in western countries 西方国家的财富两极分化

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.004

This paper delves into the dynamics of wealth distribution across various countries, utilizing innovative methodologies to uncover patterns of wealth polarization and its determinants. Wealth, distinct from income, reflects long-term economic resources and serves as a crucial indicator of economic well-being. Employing the "relative distribution" method and Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regression, this study examines changes in wealth distribution and the factors driving wealth polarization across eight European countries, Australia, and the United States.

The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in wealth distribution trends among countries, with disparities observed over time. Wealth polarization, akin to income polarization, emerges as a phenomenon distinct from traditional measures of inequality, shedding light on the concentration of wealth within societies. Household composition, demographic factors, and socioeconomic characteristics significantly influence wealth polarization, echoing patterns observed in income polarization studies.

The findings underscore the multifaceted nature of wealth distribution dynamics and highlight the need for comprehensive policy interventions to address wealth inequality and polarization. Policy measures such as progressive taxation, regulatory reforms, and asset-building programs for marginalized communities are crucial in fostering equitable wealth distribution and creating inclusive societies.

本文深入研究了各国财富分配的动态变化，利用创新方法揭示了财富两极分化的模式及其决定因素。财富有别于收入，它反映了长期的经济资源，是衡量经济福祉的重要指标。本研究采用 "相对分布 "法和重定向影响函数（RIF）回归法，研究了八个欧洲国家、澳大利亚和美国的财富分布变化以及财富两极分化的驱动因素。财富两极分化与收入两极分化类似，是一种有别于传统不平等衡量标准的现象，揭示了社会内部财富的集中程度。家庭构成、人口因素和社会经济特征对财富两极分化有重大影响，这与收入两极分化研究中观察到的模式如出一辙。研究结果强调了财富分配动态的多面性，并强调需要采取全面的政策干预措施来解决财富不平等和两极分化问题。累进税制、监管改革和边缘化社区资产建设计划等政策措施对于促进财富公平分配和创建包容性社会至关重要。

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