Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.006
Xiaolong He , Zhuangxiong Yu , Yufan Liang
This paper studies how public data platforms affect city-level capital–labor allocation. Using panel data for 280 prefecture-level cities from 2008–2022, we exploit their staggered rollout in a difference-in-differences design treating platform launches as content-side information shocks. We find that platform adoption reduces city-level factor misallocation by roughly 23 percent relative to the pre-reform mean. The results are robust across specifications and to addressing endogeneity concerns. Further, results from the mechanism analysis indicate that platform adoption reduces misallocation via market-competition channels, including greater firm entry, deeper venture capital investment, and larger international trade volumes. Moreover, the impact is stronger in cities with less administrative fragmentation, greater dialect diversity, or more rugged terrain. Finally, spatial-econometric models indicate positive spillovers to neighboring cities, suggesting cross-city diffusion of information and practices. Overall, the findings suggest that public data platform acts as a low-distortion policy tool to improve urban factor allocation.
{"title":"Public data, market competition and resource misallocation","authors":"Xiaolong He , Zhuangxiong Yu , Yufan Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how public data platforms affect city-level capital–labor allocation. Using panel data for 280 prefecture-level cities from 2008–2022, we exploit their staggered rollout in a difference-in-differences design treating platform launches as content-side information shocks. We find that platform adoption reduces city-level factor misallocation by roughly 23 percent relative to the pre-reform mean. The results are robust across specifications and to addressing endogeneity concerns. Further, results from the mechanism analysis indicate that platform adoption reduces misallocation via market-competition channels, including greater firm entry, deeper venture capital investment, and larger international trade volumes. Moreover, the impact is stronger in cities with less administrative fragmentation, greater dialect diversity, or more rugged terrain. Finally, spatial-econometric models indicate positive spillovers to neighboring cities, suggesting cross-city diffusion of information and practices. Overall, the findings suggest that public data platform acts as a low-distortion policy tool to improve urban factor allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 110-122"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.004
Paul Carrillo-Maldonado, Zoe Cruz
This paper analyzes the effect of minimum wage on the macroeconomic performance of Ecuador. We use narrative identification to obtain the structural changes because of minimum wage. We estimate the impulse response function to understand the dynamic response of output, prices, and unemployment to exogenous changes in the minimum wage through local projections and structural vector autoregressive. The main results show a positive response of the gross domestic product in the short term when the minimum wage increases. Other variables such as inflation, unemployment rate, and real wage do not respond to this shock.
{"title":"Macroeconomic consequences of minimum wage in a developing country","authors":"Paul Carrillo-Maldonado, Zoe Cruz","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the effect of minimum wage on the macroeconomic performance of Ecuador. We use narrative identification to obtain the structural changes because of minimum wage. We estimate the impulse response function to understand the dynamic response of output, prices, and unemployment to exogenous changes in the minimum wage through local projections and structural vector autoregressive. The main results show a positive response of the gross domestic product in the short term when the minimum wage increases. Other variables such as inflation, unemployment rate, and real wage do not respond to this shock.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 137-148"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.012
Reda Cherif , Fuad Hasanov , Lichen Wang
We shed new light on the determinants of growth by tackling the blunt and weak instrument problems in the empirical growth literature. As an instrument for each endogenous variable, we propose average values of the same variable in neighboring countries. This method has the advantage of producing variable-specific and time-varying—namely, “sharp”—and strong instruments. We also introduce “bias norms” to test the sensitivity of the estimates to the potential invalidity of our instruments. The estimations show that export sophistication is a relatively robust determinant of growth compared to other standard growth determinants such as years of schooling, trade openness, private credit to the economy, and institutions as measured by law and order. Other growth determinants such as human capital quality and technological level of production may be important to the extent they help improve export sophistication.
{"title":"Sharp instrument: A stab at identifying the causes of economic growth","authors":"Reda Cherif , Fuad Hasanov , Lichen Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We shed new light on the determinants of growth by tackling the blunt and weak instrument problems in the empirical growth literature. As an instrument for each endogenous variable, we propose average values of the same variable in neighboring countries. This method has the advantage of producing variable-specific and time-varying—namely, “sharp”—and strong instruments. We also introduce “bias norms” to test the sensitivity of the estimates to the potential invalidity of our instruments. The estimations show that export sophistication is a relatively robust determinant of growth compared to other standard growth determinants such as years of schooling, trade openness, private credit to the economy, and institutions as measured by law and order. Other growth determinants such as human capital quality and technological level of production may be important to the extent they help improve export sophistication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 149-167"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.003
Yifei Li , Yuegang Song , Chien-Chiang Lee
In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, promoting the deep integration of artificial intelligence technology and the real economy has become a core concern for ensuring the safety of the manufacturing industry chain and advancing high-quality development. However, how industrial robot adoption (IRA) can empower global value chain (GVC) resilience, its mechanisms of action and boundaries of influence remain to be clarified as a major practical issue that requires urgent investigation. To examine this issue, this study uses the World Industrial Robot Database from the International Federation of Robotics, World Bank World Development Indicators and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) input–output tables to construct a three-dimensional, country–industry–year panel covering nine manufacturing industries in 53 countries from 2000 to 2018. We quantify manufacturing GVCs’ resilience from safety and stability dimensions and systematically examine the influence of IRA. The findings reveal that IRA can significantly improve manufacturing GVCs’ overall resilience, which remains valid following a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Further analysis reveals that this enabling effect is more prominent for labour- and technology-intensive industries, OECD countries and high import-dependent countries. Mechanism analysis confirms that IRA primarily enhances GVCs’ resilience through three channels of labour substitution, reduced trade costs and promoting technological innovation. In addition, our spatial econometric model results demonstrate that the impact of IRA not only benefits the country but also has a positive driving effect on neighbouring countries’ GVC resilience through significant positive spatial spillover effects. This study provides new insights into the evolution of manufacturing GVCs in the era of Industry 4.0 and offers valuable empirical evidence and decision-making guidance for countries to advance GVC upgrading.
{"title":"Industrial robot adoption and the resilience of manufacturing global value chains","authors":"Yifei Li , Yuegang Song , Chien-Chiang Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, promoting the deep integration of artificial intelligence technology and the real economy has become a core concern for ensuring the safety of the manufacturing industry chain and advancing high-quality development. However, how industrial robot adoption (IRA) can empower global value chain (GVC) resilience, its mechanisms of action and boundaries of influence remain to be clarified as a major practical issue that requires urgent investigation. To examine this issue, this study uses the World Industrial Robot Database from the International Federation of Robotics, World Bank World Development Indicators and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) input–output tables to construct a three-dimensional, country–industry–year panel covering nine manufacturing industries in 53 countries from 2000 to 2018. We quantify manufacturing GVCs’ resilience from safety and stability dimensions and systematically examine the influence of IRA. The findings reveal that IRA can significantly improve manufacturing GVCs’ overall resilience, which remains valid following a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Further analysis reveals that this enabling effect is more prominent for labour- and technology-intensive industries, OECD countries and high import-dependent countries. Mechanism analysis confirms that IRA primarily enhances GVCs’ resilience through three channels of labour substitution, reduced trade costs and promoting technological innovation. In addition, our spatial econometric model results demonstrate that the impact of IRA not only benefits the country but also has a positive driving effect on neighbouring countries’ GVC resilience through significant positive spatial spillover effects. This study provides new insights into the evolution of manufacturing GVCs in the era of Industry 4.0 and offers valuable empirical evidence and decision-making guidance for countries to advance GVC upgrading.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 93-109"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.002
Gabriel Lozano-Reina , Gregorio Sánchez-Marín , J. Samuel Baixauli-Soler
Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds represent a large-scale public investment aimed at mitigating the economic impact of COVID-19 and advancing industrial modernization across the European Union. This study analyzes their early effects in Spain through three objectives: (i) to provide an integrated overview of the design and industrial orientation of the Spain Can Plan, including the role of Industrial Policy Spain 2030 and PERTEs as mission-oriented instruments; (ii) to examine the macro-level implementation of NGEU funds across strategic policy levers, beneficiaries, and regions; and (iii) to assess how sectoral patterns and firm-level characteristics shape the absorption of support. Evidence from the ELISA and SABI databases shows pronounced territorial and sectoral asymmetries, with energy-related and capital-intensive activities receiving a high share of resources. At the firm level, funding allocation is closely linked to pre-existing structural capabilities, whilst post-COVID financial indicators point to improvements in profitability, productivity, and financial stability. The study concludes with policy recommendations to strengthen Spain’s industrial modernization and its strategic positioning in the global economy.
{"title":"Next Generation EU and industrial transformation: Evidence from Spain","authors":"Gabriel Lozano-Reina , Gregorio Sánchez-Marín , J. Samuel Baixauli-Soler","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds represent a large-scale public investment aimed at mitigating the economic impact of COVID-19 and advancing industrial modernization across the European Union. This study analyzes their early effects in Spain through three objectives: (i) to provide an integrated overview of the design and industrial orientation of the Spain Can Plan, including the role of Industrial Policy Spain 2030 and PERTEs as mission-oriented instruments; (ii) to examine the macro-level implementation of NGEU funds across strategic policy levers, beneficiaries, and regions; and (iii) to assess how sectoral patterns and firm-level characteristics shape the absorption of support. Evidence from the ELISA and SABI databases shows pronounced territorial and sectoral asymmetries, with energy-related and capital-intensive activities receiving a high share of resources. At the firm level, funding allocation is closely linked to pre-existing structural capabilities, whilst post-COVID financial indicators point to improvements in profitability, productivity, and financial stability. The study concludes with policy recommendations to strengthen Spain’s industrial modernization and its strategic positioning in the global economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 123-136"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.016
Manuela Cerimelo, Pablo de la Vega, Franco Vazquez, Natalia Porto
We study the wage gap between those who are in green jobs and those who are not (the wage greenium), in nine major Latin American countries that account for 81% of the region’s GDP: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. We contribute to the recent literature focused on developed countries that highlights a positive wage gap for those working in green jobs. We use the occupational approach to define green jobs and find that, in Latin America, they pay 15.8% more than non-green jobs. This result may be a desirable market feature, as workers might be encouraged to switch to greener occupations. In addition, we find that the wage greenium increases with the years of education, which suggests that workers with a medium or high educational level in green jobs are better off than their counterparts in non-green jobs.
{"title":"Greener jobs, higher wages? The Latin American wage greenium","authors":"Manuela Cerimelo, Pablo de la Vega, Franco Vazquez, Natalia Porto","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the wage gap between those who are in green jobs and those who are not (the wage greenium), in nine major Latin American countries that account for 81% of the region’s GDP: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. We contribute to the recent literature focused on developed countries that highlights a positive wage gap for those working in green jobs. We use the occupational approach to define green jobs and find that, in Latin America, they pay 15.8% more than non-green jobs. This result may be a desirable market feature, as workers might be encouraged to switch to greener occupations. In addition, we find that the wage greenium increases with the years of education, which suggests that workers with a medium or high educational level in green jobs are better off than their counterparts in non-green jobs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 77-92"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.014
Fabio Lamperti , Davide Castellani
Labor market exclusion represents a major concern in several European economies, particularly affecting highly exposed demographic groups. This paper examines the potential effect of automation technologies on the risk of being locked into protracted unemployment or inactivity, using Labour Force Survey data for the European Union 27 countries and the United Kingdom, between 2009 and 2019. Our study employs repeated cross-sections of individual-level data to compute probabilities of exclusion outcomes due to automation adoption, controlling for several individual, macroeconomic, and region-specific characteristics, and for potential selection mechanisms. Findings highlight that, on average, the adoption of new automation technologies is associated with a higher probability of being inactive. This is consistent with the view that automation may exacerbate job insecurity, psychological discouragement, and detachment from job-seeking. This relationship is heterogeneous across demographic groups, with younger individuals being relatively more affected.
{"title":"Automation and the risk of labor market exclusion across Europe","authors":"Fabio Lamperti , Davide Castellani","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Labor market exclusion represents a major concern in several European economies, particularly affecting highly exposed demographic groups. This paper examines the potential effect of automation technologies on the risk of being locked into protracted unemployment or inactivity, using Labour Force Survey data for the European Union 27 countries and the United Kingdom, between 2009 and 2019. Our study employs repeated cross-sections of individual-level data to compute probabilities of exclusion outcomes due to automation adoption, controlling for several individual, macroeconomic, and region-specific characteristics, and for potential selection mechanisms. Findings highlight that, on average, the adoption of new automation technologies is associated with a higher probability of being inactive. This is consistent with the view that automation may exacerbate job insecurity, psychological discouragement, and detachment from job-seeking. This relationship is heterogeneous across demographic groups, with younger individuals being relatively more affected.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 62-76"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-29DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.010
Luigi Riso, Gianmarco Vacca, Maria Zoia
In recent years, climate change has given cause for concern for the stability of the global economy, particularly financial stability. In this regard, its effects on the overall geopolitical set-up are also apparent. This work aims at disentangling the relationship among these three dimensions, via a streamlined set of econometric analyses. For Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the impact of extreme climate events on the geopolitical risk index is first investigated. The resulting climate-driven geopolitical risk is then related to each country’s financial stress index. The results that emerge from the empirical analysis highlight that the geopolitical risk induced by climate events plays a significant role in the financial stability of these countries. The impact of this type of risk turns out to depend on the specific territorial characteristics of the countries, as well as the peculiar policies and targeted measures to contain adverse climate events adopted by the various countries
{"title":"Climate-induced geopolitical risk and financial interdependence in Europe: A systemic transition perspective","authors":"Luigi Riso, Gianmarco Vacca, Maria Zoia","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, climate change has given cause for concern for the stability of the global economy, particularly financial stability. In this regard, its effects on the overall geopolitical set-up are also apparent. This work aims at disentangling the relationship among these three dimensions, via a streamlined set of econometric analyses. For Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the impact of extreme climate events on the geopolitical risk index is first investigated. The resulting climate-driven geopolitical risk is then related to each country’s financial stress index. The results that emerge from the empirical analysis highlight that the geopolitical risk induced by climate events plays a significant role in the financial stability of these countries. The impact of this type of risk turns out to depend on the specific territorial characteristics of the countries, as well as the peculiar policies and targeted measures to contain adverse climate events adopted by the various countries</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 23-42"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-27DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.013
Jing-hua Yin, Hai-Ying Song, Hui Zhu
Multiple frameworks have been used to explore the relationship between smart governance and sustainable development. However, three critical gaps persist: theoretical fragmentation, insufficient contextual analysis, and limited cross-country comparisons. Based on the triple-bottom-line theory and a dynamic coupling framework, this study systematically examines the staged evolutionary effects of smart governance on sustainable development and regional heterogeneity. Our hybrid research framework applies entropy-weighted comprehensive evaluation, feasible generalized least squares, and instrumental variable approaches to multi-source authoritative data from 159 countries spanning the period from 2003 to 2020. First, the results indicate that smart governance’s promoting effect increases with maturity. Second, the data reveal staged impacts. In the initial stage, hybrid governance drives economic growth, while in the middle stage, collaborative governance enhances institutional efficiency. In the long term, network governance reinforces climate action, while social equity remains inadequately addressed. Third, significant regional heterogeneity exists. Finally, mechanistically, smart governance operates through optimized business environments, improved institutional quality, and reduced climate vulnerability. However, its negative association with social trust highlights increased digital divide risks. This research provides dual perspectives on stage-specific adaptation and regional coordination for differentiated governance strategies.
{"title":"Smart governance for sustainable development: Stage-specific effects and regional heterogeneity in a global empirical framework","authors":"Jing-hua Yin, Hai-Ying Song, Hui Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multiple frameworks have been used to explore the relationship between smart governance and sustainable development. However, three critical gaps persist: theoretical fragmentation, insufficient contextual analysis, and limited cross-country comparisons. Based on the triple-bottom-line theory and a dynamic coupling framework, this study systematically examines the staged evolutionary effects of smart governance on sustainable development and regional heterogeneity. Our hybrid research framework applies entropy-weighted comprehensive evaluation, feasible generalized least squares, and instrumental variable approaches to multi-source authoritative data from 159 countries spanning the period from 2003 to 2020. First, the results indicate that smart governance’s promoting effect increases with maturity. Second, the data reveal staged impacts. In the initial stage, hybrid governance drives economic growth, while in the middle stage, collaborative governance enhances institutional efficiency. In the long term, network governance reinforces climate action, while social equity remains inadequately addressed. Third, significant regional heterogeneity exists. Finally, mechanistically, smart governance operates through optimized business environments, improved institutional quality, and reduced climate vulnerability. However, its negative association with social trust highlights increased digital divide risks. This research provides dual perspectives on stage-specific adaptation and regional coordination for differentiated governance strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 43-61"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Including developing countries in the low-carbon transition is essential for meeting climate goals, yet their structural specificities are often ignored in transition models. This article presents a Structural Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model for open developing economies, dividing production into resource-based exports, non-tradable goods and services, and other tradable sectors. While SFC models highlight financial constraints, they rarely adopt a multi-sectoral perspective. Our model contributes by (1) providing a flexible framework that accommodates diverse country characteristics, balancing short-term demand with long-term structural strategies, and (2) demonstrating the limitations of carbon pricing alone in economies dependent on carbon-intensive sectors. By integrating structurally distinct sectors within a monetary framework, we reveal how financial constraints stemming from structural rigidities shape transition dynamics. Our results indicate that carbon pricing’s effectiveness depends on tax revenue recycling to avert recessions and support sustainable decarbonization. This requires fostering innovation and competitiveness in low-emission industries.
{"title":"Carbon tax recycling: Fostering reindustrialization in financialized developing economies","authors":"Guilherme Magacho , Antoine Godin , Danilo Spinola , Devrim Yilmaz","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Including developing countries in the low-carbon transition is essential for meeting climate goals, yet their structural specificities are often ignored in transition models. This article presents a Structural Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model for open developing economies, dividing production into resource-based exports, non-tradable goods and services, and other tradable sectors. While SFC models highlight financial constraints, they rarely adopt a multi-sectoral perspective. Our model contributes by (1) providing a flexible framework that accommodates diverse country characteristics, balancing short-term demand with long-term structural strategies, and (2) demonstrating the limitations of carbon pricing alone in economies dependent on carbon-intensive sectors. By integrating structurally distinct sectors within a monetary framework, we reveal how financial constraints stemming from structural rigidities shape transition dynamics. Our results indicate that carbon pricing’s effectiveness depends on tax revenue recycling to avert recessions and support sustainable decarbonization. This requires fostering innovation and competitiveness in low-emission industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Pages 1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145852480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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