Spatial and temporal analysis and trends of extreme precipitation over the Mississippi River Basin, USA during 1988–2017

IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101954
Atanas Dommo , Noel Aloysius , Anthony Lupo , Sherry Hunt
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Abstract

Study region

Mississippi River Basin.

Study focus

Using daily precipitation records of 769 meteorological stations over the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the spatial-temporal variability and trend of nine extreme precipitation indices were estimated and statistically assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Factors likely to influence the spatial pattern and trends of precipitation extremes indices were also checked.

New hydrological insights for the region

The spatial pattern of the extreme precipitation indices exhibits a southeast to Northwest dipole, with the maximum values recorded over the southeastern part of the domain (exception being for Consecutive Dry Days, CDD which shows otherwise) driven by the southerly moisture transport toward the southeast. The spatial pattern of the extreme precipitation is controlled by the topography. The results also show that, on average, almost all the indices (except CDD) exhibit an increasing trend. The total wet day precipitation exhibits a significant increasing trend. Spatially, most of the significant increasing (decreasing) trends of the extreme's precipitation-except CDD- are located over the Upper (South) MRB where there is a significant sign toward cooling (warming) conditions. This supports the view that changing climate towards warming (cooling) conditions is significantly affecting precipitations extremes over the MRB. The relationships between large-scale teleconnections and extreme precipitation show that Pacific North America significantly increases (decreases) frequency and intensity indices over the Northwest (southeast) MRB, whereas the Pacific Decadal Oscillation does increase the frequency and intensity indices over the southeast. El Niño Southern Oscillation significantly increases the frequency and intensity indices over the entire MRB, with consequences to infrastructure failures, increasing vulnerable populations, risk zones and relocations populations.

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1988-2017 年间美国密西西比河流域极端降水的时空分析与趋势
研究区域密西西比河流域。研究重点利用密西西比河流域(MRB)769 个气象站的日降水量记录,估算了九个极端降水指数的时空变异性和趋势,并使用 Mann-Kendall 检验进行了统计评估。对该地区水文的新见解极端降水指数的空间模式呈现出东南至西北偶极子现象,其最大值记录在该区域的东南部(连续干旱日(CDD)除外,其表现与此相反),由向东南方向的偏南水汽输送驱动。极端降水的空间模式受地形控制。结果还显示,平均而言,几乎所有指数(除连续干旱日外)都呈现上升趋势。湿日总降水量呈显著增加趋势。从空间上看,除 CDD 外,大部分极端降水量的显著增加(减少)趋势都位于上(南)MRB 地区,该地区有明显的变冷(变暖)迹象。这支持了一种观点,即气候变暖(变冷)对 MRB 的极端降水有显著影响。大尺度遥联系与极端降水之间的关系表明,北美太平洋显著增加(减少)了西北(东南)MRB 上的降水频率和强度指数,而太平洋十年涛动确实增加了东南部的降水频率和强度指数。厄尔尼诺南方涛动显著增加了整个 MRB 的频率和强度指数,导致基础设施故障、脆弱人口增加、风险区域和人口迁移。
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
8.50%
发文量
284
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.
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