Why renewables should be at the center of rebuilding the Ukrainian electricity system

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has caused massive destruction of the country’s infrastructure, particularly its electricity system. Discussions on how to rebuild the system are underway within the country and the international community. Yet, major uncertainties about patterns of destruction and rebuilding potential complicate this task. Here, we present the first comprehensive and geo-spatial mapping of the Ukrainian electricity system and its destruction during the ongoing war. We find that virtually all large, centralized power plants have been attacked since February 2022, reducing overall generation capacity to roughly a third of before-war levels and substantially weakening the grid via attacks on transmission lines and substations, particularly in the east. We argue that any effort to rebuild the electricity system should meet four criteria: fast rebuilding, increased resilience, lowered fuel import dependence, and abatement of polluting emissions. Based on an estimation of the country’s wind and solar potential, we argue that these renewables should form the backbone of a future electricity system, as only they meet all four criteria, and we discuss how Ukrainian and international policymakers can facilitate and direct investment.