Change of global land extreme temperature in the future

IF 4 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104583
Xinlong Zhang , Taosheng Huang , Weiping Wang , Ping Shen
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Abstract

Understanding future temperature extremes is pivotal to preparing for and mitigating the impacts of climate change. This study proposed machine learning techniques to develop a multi-model ensemble model for high-resolution projection of global land temperature extremes under different emission scenarios, hence providing enhanced precision over previous climate model projections. By utilizing the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset with bias adjustment and the Gradient Booster algorithm, we reduced the biases that existed in Global Climate Models. The model significantly reduces the root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both the daily maximum and daily minimum temperature extremes. A future scenario analysis revealed that global temperature extremes would substantially increase under high-emission scenarios, highlighting the urgency for stringent emission reduction commitments. This study also identified regions like Greenland, the Tibetan Plateau, and the regional Arctic Archipelago as potential hotspots of temperature extremes under these scenarios. The multi-model ensemble approach, tuned with machine learning and driven by high-resolution data, contributes to climate science by providing refined insights into future temperature extremes, thereby offering direction to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

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未来全球陆地极端温度的变化
了解未来的极端气温对防备和减缓气候变化的影响至关重要。本研究提出了机器学习技术,以开发一个多模式集合模型,用于高分辨率预测不同排放情景下的全球陆地极端温度,从而提供比以往气候模式预测更高的精度。通过利用 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 数据集的偏差调整和梯度提升算法,我们减少了全球气候模型中存在的偏差。该模型大大降低了日极端最高气温和日极端最低气温的均方根误差(RMSE)。未来情景分析表明,在高排放情景下,全球极端气温将大幅上升,这凸显了严格减排承诺的紧迫性。这项研究还发现,在这些情景下,格陵兰岛、青藏高原和北极群岛等地区可能成为极端气温的热点地区。通过机器学习调整和高分辨率数据驱动的多模型集合方法为气候科学做出了贡献,它提供了对未来极端气温的精细洞察,从而为气候变化减缓和适应战略提供了方向。
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来源期刊
Global and Planetary Change
Global and Planetary Change 地学天文-地球科学综合
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
10.30%
发文量
226
审稿时长
63 days
期刊介绍: The objective of the journal Global and Planetary Change is to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the processes taking place in the Earth System and involved in planetary change over time. The journal focuses on records of the past and current state of the earth system, and future scenarios , and their link to global environmental change. Regional or process-oriented studies are welcome if they discuss global implications. Topics include, but are not limited to, changes in the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, as well as climate change, sea level variation, observations/modelling of Earth processes from deep to (near-)surface and their coupling, global ecology, biogeography and the resilience/thresholds in ecosystems. Key criteria for the consideration of manuscripts are (a) the relevance for the global scientific community and/or (b) the wider implications for global scale problems, preferably combined with (c) having a significance beyond a single discipline. A clear focus on key processes associated with planetary scale change is strongly encouraged. Manuscripts can be submitted as either research contributions or as a review article. Every effort should be made towards the presentation of research outcomes in an understandable way for a broad readership.
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