{"title":"Changes in landscape ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm source control project area from a spatiotemporal perspective","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112569","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The comprehensive effect of multi-source factors has altered the landscape pattern and ecological processes within the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project (BTSSCP) area, resulting in a fragile environment. Scientific evaluation of the landscape ecological risk (LER) in the project area and identification of the drivers of landscape ecological risk are crucial for preventing and resolving ecological risks and protecting the ecosystem in northern China. This study aims to establish an ecological risk assessment framework, analyze the spatiotemporal changes in the LER in the BTSSCP area from 2000 to 2020, evaluate different factors in depth using the Geodetector model, and predict the LER in 2030 under multiple development scenarios using the patch-generating land use model. The results showed that (1) the dominant land use type in the BTSSCP area was grassland, accounting for more than 50 % of the total area, followed by cropland, unused land, and woodland. (2) The average LERI values in the BTSSCP area for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 0.023, 0.022, and 0.021, respectively. This demonstrates that the LER in the study as a whole was low and steadily declined. (3) The LER in the project area was influenced by multiple factors. Overall, the evolution of the LER in the study area was primarily affected by natural factors, and the amount of interaction among the multiple factors increased over time. Locally, the normalized difference vegetation index and mean annual temperature were both important factors in this area.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24010264/pdfft?md5=2143f258f72d9bf33a6680e055334cc2&pid=1-s2.0-S1470160X24010264-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Indicators","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24010264","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The comprehensive effect of multi-source factors has altered the landscape pattern and ecological processes within the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project (BTSSCP) area, resulting in a fragile environment. Scientific evaluation of the landscape ecological risk (LER) in the project area and identification of the drivers of landscape ecological risk are crucial for preventing and resolving ecological risks and protecting the ecosystem in northern China. This study aims to establish an ecological risk assessment framework, analyze the spatiotemporal changes in the LER in the BTSSCP area from 2000 to 2020, evaluate different factors in depth using the Geodetector model, and predict the LER in 2030 under multiple development scenarios using the patch-generating land use model. The results showed that (1) the dominant land use type in the BTSSCP area was grassland, accounting for more than 50 % of the total area, followed by cropland, unused land, and woodland. (2) The average LERI values in the BTSSCP area for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 0.023, 0.022, and 0.021, respectively. This demonstrates that the LER in the study as a whole was low and steadily declined. (3) The LER in the project area was influenced by multiple factors. Overall, the evolution of the LER in the study area was primarily affected by natural factors, and the amount of interaction among the multiple factors increased over time. Locally, the normalized difference vegetation index and mean annual temperature were both important factors in this area.
期刊介绍:
The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published.
• All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices.
• New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use.
• Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources.
• Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators.
• Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs.
• How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes.
• Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators.
• Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.