Economic effects of shocks in the coal industry: An analysis based on DSGE model

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the coal sector on the economy from the perspective of industry shocks. Existing research primarily focuses on the relationship between coal consumption and the economy. An 8-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed, based on China's input-output tables from 2005 to 2020, to depict the economic effects of coal sector shocks. The research findings are: (1) The DSGE model reveals a close connection between the coal industry and the macroeconomy. (2) The coal sector shocks have the largest impact on the electricity sector. (3) Coal sector shocks primarily affect the macroeconomy through non-energy manufacturing sectors. (4) As the economic development level increases, the influence of coal sector shocks on the macroeconomy gradually diminishes. The econometric analysis indicates that the role of coal is no longer significant in the high stage of economic development. The results of the panel quantile regression model also show the same result. Based on these conclusions, this paper suggests that as China gradually enters a new stage of development, it can gradually reduce coal consumption.